"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[the long way downunder]

$RIVN got caught in the market downdraft due to the Fed yesterday after falling down stairs the session prior, and may be vulnerable to the jobs report tomorrow, but didn't get the ride higher when Tesla reported sales for Monday's session. Not that $TSLA is doing too well, but not a good start to the year for $RIVN.
Have the institutional investors "forgotten" about Rivian; aren't EV stocks one of the single most important industries in the world for the next 10+ years; have they already eaten their fill or do the algorithms make the trades to exit as the $175 knife fell?
Options are trading thinly making selling calls tedious but it's saving the day. Puts are trading, so there's still plenty of buyers taking the precautionary put (which I think is an effective waste of money.) I bought at $80 today, a good price in my opinion. I'll sell more puts and calls in neutral strangles. My pre-IPO stock is no longer a significant amount of my position, so my cost basis is over $80.
$RIVN under 90 effectively puts "everyone" under water. I don't expect the VCs and major shareholders to puke, so those with a firm constitution and capital to hold a position for 5 or 10 years will be buyers and the onlookers either commiserate in our demise or envy of our gains.

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[dpc166]

I end up buying a few shares here and there spread out across the spectrum as a long term holder in RIVN. I'll keep buying shares throughout the year so I have a good spread.

 

[the long way downunder]

A tough week, but ended with a stable day for $RIVN while $TSLA took another inexplicable kick in the proverbials. I really don't understand this selling in $TSLA. Tesla is exceeding all expectations and opening new production and new markets. Maybe no justification for $2000 but selling? Inexplicable. I'm not willing to sell $TSLA to buy $RIVN (I was quite willing at $1200 and $120 respectively, but now the price behavior is broken and both Rivian and Tesla are being underestimated in their capacity to win in their respective businesses (and we're seeing only the tip of the iceberg of Rivian's potential businesses in static storage, light commercial fleet … these are massive, global markets … anyway, preaching to the …)
I'm not silly enough to react to one week of trading and change my plan. My time frame is weeks and months of price changes, not hours and days. If $RIVN and $TSLA continue whipsawing, it's necessary to take a longer time sample or be a skilled and capable swing trader to work a difficult underlying.

 

[RideAlong]

We will see what next week brings - but it is looking like the classic 'dead cat bounce' right now ?

 

[the long way downunder]

We will see what next week brings - but it is looking like the classic 'dead cat bounce' right now ?

A "dead cat bounce" happens in a downtrend, in a bear market. We've been in a bull market for years.
Also, $RIVN hasn't had a bounce, it has had a continued lack of buyers from $120, holding each week at $10 lower increments. Each week there have been "exogenous" events and that good new there is $RIVN has participated in the recoveries. I think $TSLA is the bellwether. I don't understand why the hell sellers are reducing their $TSLA positions (high profile influencers like $ARKK are selling $TSLA and losing their profits.)
We're still in a bull market (except the Russell) and I don't see Rivian as a company that can be traded week to week (let alone day trading) when its business is a ten year challenge to build factories and build batteries and vehicles.
The EV industry resembles Silicon Valley in the early 90's.

 

[ja_kub_sz]

Shooting from the hip... 3 year hold and $150-175 target.

Just a brainless gut feeling.

 

[dpc166]

It's kinda like MSFT. It's just one of those stocks you buy because it'll never crash. I started buying MSFT when they were under $100 back in 2018 and now they're over 3x higher. Hoping RIVN does the same here.

 

[rivianfan1]

It's kinda like MSFT. It's just one of those stocks you buy because it'll never crash. I started buying MSFT when they were under $100 back in 2018 and now they're over 3x higher. Hoping RIVN does the same here.

Well, msft was a no brainer as they were only strong alternative to AWS & they had a good track record, but Rivian will have much stronger competition & doesn't have a track record.

 

[St Bernard]

We will see what next week brings - but it is looking like the classic 'dead cat bounce' right now ?

Stock dropping to $78 after hours. In another case of RIVIAN not communicating it was just announced that the COO left the company weeks ago and they never disclosed that info. A well run company would immediately have announced the number two Officer leaving the company the same day. Tomorrow will be interesting. They need a real CEO who has experience running a public company. Designing Trucks and running a company are different.

 

[rivianfan1]

Rivian closed 2021 with over 1,000 vehicles produced

Irvine, CA- Rivian Automotive, Inc. produced 1,015 vehicles by the end of 2021. 920 vehicles were delivered by that date.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000119312522005867/d286746dex991.htm

 

[the long way downunder]

Stock dropping to $78 after hours. In another case of RIVIAN not communicating it was just announced that the COO left the company weeks ago and they never disclosed that info. A well run company would immediately have announced the number two Officer leaving the company the same day. Tomorrow will be interesting. They need a real CEO who has experience running a public company. Designing Trucks and running a company are different.

I think $RIVN was caught in another whole market vacuum downdraft – the whole market including Tesla was sucking. The disconcerting divergence was when all the markets recovered (and recovered almost 100% of the sell off) and Tesla went strongly positive, Rivian was not finding buyers.
I'm kicking myself I didn't have orders low enough to grab some of these discounts but I'm also concerned that there were sellers at these levels – these are positions which must have been bought at $90+ and those traders were taking losses for fear. Fear of the unknown, fear of lower prices and greater losses, but bottom line, fear of the unknown.
I don't know why the COO (which is not the "number two" officer necessarily) departed – maybe he fell, maybe jumped, maybe slipped, maybe anything.
The COO, Rod Copes, is said to have had a long ago planned retirement and his role was already taken up by others in a long term plan for his exit. Keep in mind the R1 production ramp up is already a year or two behind schedule.
A COO leaving in the middle of an IPO and initial product launch, in my humble, is not a seasoned executive waiting till a melodramatic climax to express their deep-seated conflict with the rest of the executive team or a telltale of inner trouble in the workings of the corporation. Maybe he was meant to build 10,000 cars and built only 1,000 and politely quit to get out of the way.
I buy the retirement story for two reasons: 1) to lie about it would be to be easily found out by any investigation and 2) there are much easier excuses if an exec is leaving under bad circumstances. Also, as far as I know, Rivian is not experiencing production or operational problems.
If you want to "sleuth the truth" just get the details on his remuneration – if he lost equity worth tens of millions, he was fired due to contract non-performance. But I doubt it. Look at the R1T … a truly excellent team built that truck and they didn't "carry" a COO for years just to cut his throat at the starting line.

 

[the long way downunder]

Time for another deep, technical analysis of the nuanced and arcane machinations of $RIVN trading today:

"This is some bullsh*t?!"

 

[GaryL]

Time for another deep, technical analysis of the nuanced and arcane machinations of $RIVN trading today:

"This is some bullsh*t?!"

LOL now you sound like Cathie. See today's MarketWatch for context

 

[moosehead]

We've had 12 years of super accommodative monetary policy and no/low cost capital. Add post covid stimulus. When that punch bowl gets taken away, what's the hangover?

RIVN was off multiples of the overall indexes.

Makes sense that uber growth, early stage, no ebitda companies with high jump execution realities and big public valuations may have a tougher road.

 

[the long way downunder]

LOL now you sound like Cathie. See today's MarketWatch for context

Cathie Wood is just the gift that keeps on giving (for satire, not return on investment.)

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