"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[dpc166]

I've got faith that they'll rebound well over the next year so I may buy some more if the dip continues for a better net profit down the road. Did that a few times with Tesla and easily doubled my investment.

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[ironpig]

There was no minimum hold period for reservation holders who bought into the IPO through the DSP. Several on this forum sold within a couple days of the IPO when the stock hit its highs in the 170 range.

Interesting. I read it was 93 days. I bought to hold so I didn't think about selling quickly.

But that's essentially what they offered you to take the sting out of knowing they were going to miss deliveries. If you bought the full 175 shares and flipped them at 170 you netted $14k (pre tax) for your truck.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

There was no minimum hold period for reservation holders who bought into the IPO through the DSP. Several on this forum sold within a couple days of the IPO when the stock hit its highs in the 170 range.

I sold at $175 so I really hope there wasn't a lockup ?

 

[ChrissyOne]

If you don't like the advice from Seeking Alpha, just wait a minute.

 

[dpc166]

If you don't like the advice from Seeking Alpha, just wait a minute.

And it's up 7% so far today.

 

[DuckTruck]

If you don't like the advice from Seeking Alpha, just wait a minute.

Clearly, Rodney Dangerfield was one of the first clients of Seeking Alpha.

 

[the long way downunder]

The last five sessions have me optimistic that $RIVN has no sellers and no shortage of buyers. I wish I'd bought more at $95 (check my posts if you think I'm rewriting history) but here we are and I see no sellers at $100. I think the move for this first session after xmas was buoyed by the whole market moving higher (and leaving the unwanted behind) but seeing Ford, Rivian and Tesla all higher in an up market, I see that as solid buyers establishing and accumulating larger year-end positions, not speculative intraday traders scalping a one day move. I think if you've got 10% of your portfolio in EV using F, RIVN and TSLA, maybe with a small percentage of BYD, Xpeng and Geely, you could do worse.

 

[GaryL]

As a now public company I think a little more disclosure is necessitated by todays news of the maxpak 1 full year delay. What materially changed from the Dec 15 earning call and information on Rivian web site and CS spokespeople as late as this week to delay a product that least 20% of your customer base had ordered. When was the decision that may have a material impact on your future revenue made? Before the Dec 15 earning call? Anyone else see some issues with disclosure here?

 

[the long way downunder]

As a now public company I think a little more disclosure is necessitated by todays news of the maxpak 1 full year delay. What materially changed from the Dec 15 earning call and information on Rivian web site and CS spokespeople as late as this week to delay a product that least 20% of your customer base had ordered. When was the decision that may have a material impact on your future revenue made? Before the Dec 15 earning call? Anyone else see some issues with disclosure here?

If you consider what executives of public companies are saying and doing with impunity these days, the SEC is lax on disclosure and forward-looking statements. In your own words "may impact future revenue" is just too vague.
I would like to see officers of a public company required to provide a complete statement explaining the whys and wherefores, but the SEC is a toothless paper tiger.
Rivian has a couple of years of pre-ordered production. Whether they sell 20% with a $10K "take" on the 180kWh battery is not something to disclose until it is a known and quantifiable factor – the've got at least the next couple of quarters to define what a delay in the mega pack really means. Here's a couple of scenarios:
(1) a delay because they have higher priorities is probably a good thing (building thousands more vehicles instead of redirecting production/assembly resources to the mega pack could well be an increase in revenue.)
(2) if they're delaying the mega pack because they can't get it to fit in the vehicles, that's more of a worry.
(3) a pending contract with production lead times from a cheaper battery OEM (e.g. blade LFP packs from BYD) could increase margins.
(4) delaying so they can resize the 135kWh to say 160kWh and increase the 180kWh to 220kWh, obviously that's good news and creates space for the "smaller" battery option.

If any one of those explanations was disclosed, it would be delusional for an investor to respond with a change in opinion on $RIVN at $100 needing to be valued at $90 (or $50) or $110 (or $150.) While typing this reply I was trying to think of a realistic disclosure that would shift the price (other than terrible news of the health of mission critical people, a structure fire, etc.) The only thing I think could really set $RIVN back would be a sizable recall. Recalls are expensive and take resources away from production. No doubt the Rivian folks are rigorous in QA and scrupulous about OEM testing, etc.

 

[the long way downunder]

Winding down 2021, the markets are slow and complacent. RIVN is finding buyers at $100 again.
Tesla up despite news of a massive 475,000 vehicle safety recall. Yikes. Tesla really needs to take a spare hundred billion and figure out quality … : )
But an all green day for EV stocks and RIVN is once again solidifying around $100-105.

 

[R1T7777]

I sold at $175 so I really hope there wasn't a lockup ?

Well played sir. I definitely missed the boat. I was originally planning to buy 100 shares, but they kept raising the price from 52 to 78. With the “toxic bro culture “ issue pre ipo I lost my nerve. Sigh.

 

[dpc166]

Well played sir. I definitely missed the boat. I was originally planning to buy 100 shares, but they kept raising the price from 52 to 78. With the “toxic bro culture “ issue pre ipo I lost my nerve. Sigh.

Hold steady. If you have the ability and desire to invest in them over time, you can contribute money at weekly/monthly intervals and simply hold onto it regardless of the current price.

 

[R1T7777]

Hold steady. If you have the ability and desire to invest in them over time, you can contribute money at weekly/monthly intervals and simply hold onto it regardless of the current price.

It’s getting close to buy time

 

[dpc166]

It’s getting close to buy time

I set a Limit order at 75 to see if it gets there. It was close earlier this morning.

 

[davrow_R1T]

I set a Limit order at 75 to see if it gets there. It was close earlier this morning.

Me too. Didn't get that one, but did get 600 at a penny below IPO price.

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