Sponsored

"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

yizzung

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 30, 2020
Threads
50
Messages
794
Reaction score
1,470
Location
California / Colorado
Vehicles
R1T | Audi allroad
Occupation
Tech
That said, Rivian HAS TO DELIVER and return faith to the investors
They have a $90B market cap. You're kinda making it sound like they're about to declare bankruptcy... :)

Going from $200 to $100 is not a sign that investors lost confidence. It's a sign that this is a super frothy market with crypto day-traders doing silly things (like bidding the stock up to that high in the first place) and new covid variant news spooking everyone (causing widespread selling).

Post-IPO stocks are incredibly risky and volatile. It just goes with the territory. People are betting on Rivian right now because it has grown-ups at the helm and a lot of actually manufacturing know-how combined with a good product vision.

They didn't just launch a website last week. They've been at this for more than a decade and (despite global pandemic, supply chain woes, etc.) they are doing a fine job SO FAR at generating demand. Jury still out on how well they can satisfy that demand but EVERY carmaker is struggling with this now so Rivian will likely be graded on that curve.

Disclaimer: I bought IPO shares and remain long RIVN
Sponsored

 

ChrissyOne

Well-Known Member
First Name
Chrissy
Joined
Dec 1, 2021
Threads
5
Messages
163
Reaction score
361
Location
Port Orchard WA
Vehicles
Lexus RX350, R1T Pre-order
Occupation
Creative Production Manager at Wizards of the Coast
We took a pretty hard bounce at 100. Looking for a floor. . .
 

Arthur Itiz

Active Member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Nov 11, 2021
Threads
0
Messages
40
Reaction score
57
Location
Washington
Vehicles
2021 Mercedes a220, 2021 Mercedes gla250
We took a pretty hard bounce at 100. Looking for a floor. . .
I believe the floor is 95. Being a Friday, if we can hold that today and give the market the weekend to take a breath, Monday should be better.
 

ChrissyOne

Well-Known Member
First Name
Chrissy
Joined
Dec 1, 2021
Threads
5
Messages
163
Reaction score
361
Location
Port Orchard WA
Vehicles
Lexus RX350, R1T Pre-order
Occupation
Creative Production Manager at Wizards of the Coast
I believe the floor is 95. Being a Friday, if we can hold that today and give the market the weekend to take a breath, Monday should be better.
95 is a reasonable guess, as long as there's no genuinely horrible news. I'm a buyer below 100.
 

Arthur Itiz

Active Member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Nov 11, 2021
Threads
0
Messages
40
Reaction score
57
Location
Washington
Vehicles
2021 Mercedes a220, 2021 Mercedes gla250
95 is a reasonable guess, as long as there's no genuinely horrible news. I'm a buyer below 100.
Yeah I agree. I don't expect RIVN to drop below 100 (unless some RIVN-specific bad news comes out on top of today's jobs print). But looking at the chart there is nothing between where it is now and 95 to support it.

However...AT SOME POINT in the future....it needs to bounce off of 95 to confirm THAT as the bottom. IMHO.
 

Sponsored

Daedalus

Active Member
First Name
Kurt
Joined
May 13, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
34
Reaction score
83
Location
Pennsylvania
Vehicles
2011 Acura MDX - R1S Preorder
They have a $90B market cap. You're kinda making it sound like they're about to declare bankruptcy... :)

.....

Disclaimer: I bought IPO shares and remain long RIVN
I said nothing to indicate they are going to declare bankruptcy, What I said is that they need to produce - and to clarify, they need to produce at scale (they did indicate what their current production capacity was) - currently they are providing guidance that is way below what they initially stated.
Websites and flashy promo videos and promises are cheap - Customer and the investors want to see that Rivian can manufacture at scale.

I am not an investor but I am certain that profitability (or a trend towards it) by way of efficient production/manufacturing is what will keep this stock from crashing below $95/share.
Again - there is no competition in 2021, however by late 2022 consumers will have many options for capable EVs (driving prices/margins down) for a (rumored) already underpriced product (see the details of the discrimination lawsuit).
 

yizzung

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 30, 2020
Threads
50
Messages
794
Reaction score
1,470
Location
California / Colorado
Vehicles
R1T | Audi allroad
Occupation
Tech
I said nothing to indicate they are going to declare bankruptcy, What I said is that they need to produce - and to clarify, they need to produce at scale (they did indicate what their current production capacity was) - currently they are providing guidance that is way below what they initially stated.
Websites and flashy promo videos and promises are cheap - Customer and the investors want to see that Rivian can manufacture at scale.

I am not an investor but I am certain that profitability (or a trend towards it) by way of efficient production/manufacturing is what will keep this stock from crashing below $95/share.
Again - there is no competition in 2021, however by late 2022 consumers will have many options for capable EVs (driving prices/margins down) for a (rumored) already underpriced product (see the details of the discrimination lawsuit).
The comment about bankruptcy was a joke (hence the little smiley face) but you literally said is that they need to "return faith to the investors" which seems to imply that investors have lost faith. I'm suggested that this has not actually happened.

I don't disagree with most of what you suggest. It's common sense. Yes, they need to manufacture and deliver. But this isn't Nikola, which ONLY had promo videos and a dry ice smoke machine. The market is giving Rivian more credit because, well, the bet seems relatively safer. The market can be wrong.

As for late 2022, well, good luck figuring out what's next. Ford supposedly just pushed deliveries back to September, which is probably the same thing as saying 2023. Who knows? I have serious doubts that Rivian is just going to bumble along while super nimble startups like Ford and GM outflank it... We'll learn a lot next year I suppose!
 

Dbeglor

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2021
Threads
1
Messages
511
Reaction score
828
Location
TX
Vehicles
Yes
The comment about bankruptcy was a joke (hence the little smiley face) but you literally said is that they need to "return faith to the investors" which seems to imply that investors have lost faith. I'm suggested that this has not actually happened.
Of course it hasn't happened. The real investors that Rivian cares about bought at $78 so they're still up 35%. Nothing has changed from what Rivian projected for investors a few weeks ago in terms of business plan or production.
 

Cactusone

Well-Known Member
First Name
Rob
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Threads
7
Messages
203
Reaction score
358
Location
Sonoran desert
Vehicles
Toyota Tacoma Acura RDX corvette
This stock is looking for a bottom, then it goes sideways for a long while.
The pain hasn’t begun yet with production delays, recalls, price increases and hit pieces from the media/competition.
I’m a buyer but not now. Good luck all.
 

JerseyGreens

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
637
Reaction score
739
Location
NJ
Vehicles
2023 R1S ADV
Occupation
CAT Property Underwriter
This stock is looking for a bottom, then it goes sideways for a long while.
The pain hasn’t begun yet with production delays, recalls, price increases and hit pieces from the media/competition.
I’m a buyer but not now. Good luck all.
Recalls? Come on now...your hoping there are recalls so you can buy some cheap stock...?

That doesn't sound like you want to see the company do well in the near and long term...
 

Sponsored

Cactusone

Well-Known Member
First Name
Rob
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Threads
7
Messages
203
Reaction score
358
Location
Sonoran desert
Vehicles
Toyota Tacoma Acura RDX corvette
All car companies have recalls its part of the business and usually not a big deal but it can be. Some media may play it up like they do with Tesla. That’s all I’m saying.
 

AndroidAppBundle

Banned
Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 24, 2021
Threads
9
Messages
132
Reaction score
102
Location
Dealer lot
Vehicles
Bianchi
I would value Rivian similarly to Lucid, personally. Lucid has a 77-78bn market cap. Similar potential.

I would guess that these two are going to trade very similarly - unproven EV brands with no real customer deliveries, manufacturing processes in their infancy, brand new supply chains, etc

Their valuation is pretty close, too. Within 10-15 billion of each other.
 

Cassidy_DM

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2021
Threads
0
Messages
64
Reaction score
188
Location
Lompoc, CA
Vehicles
Mazda6
Occupation
Space
95 is a reasonable guess, as long as there's no genuinely horrible news. I'm a buyer below 100.
Ditto. I've got some money reserved for below $100 and plan to hold long once I'm there.

Also, holy crap, you probably have the coolest occupation on the forum. :cool:
 

E.S.

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
825
Reaction score
1,057
Location
Florida
Vehicles
Chevy Bolt
Occupation
Retired
Also, holy crap, you probably have the coolest occupation on the forum. :cool:
You made me look and now I have questions.

@ChrissyOne I got some serious questions regarding the TF-tcg and would like to know if you could shed some light for me regarding that franchise. Can you PM me when you get a chance? (don't knock a fan for trying ;) )
 
Last edited:

ChrissyOne

Well-Known Member
First Name
Chrissy
Joined
Dec 1, 2021
Threads
5
Messages
163
Reaction score
361
Location
Port Orchard WA
Vehicles
Lexus RX350, R1T Pre-order
Occupation
Creative Production Manager at Wizards of the Coast
I got some serious questions regarding the TF-tcg and would like to know if you could shed some light for me regarding that franchise. Can you PM me when you get a chance?
Lol ? I know nothing about the TF game, my team just works on Magic.
Sponsored

 
 




Top