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Confident RIVN Price Prediction and why I purchased more today

ethankailey

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First of all, sorry for the typo/grammatical errors as I'm writing this on our way up SF from LA. (Passenger)

In pass few weeks after the intro of IPO, there has nothing but negativity towards RIVN from get go, but never once any rebuttal from Rivian pumping out positive news. How many times have we heard "over valued, or "RIVN will be a biggest bubble of the century".?

Well, I'm going to be as simple as I can and later when I come back from my trip, I may or may not add more info. In meanwhile you can try to put one and one together.

With the know fact that Rivian CEO owns 1.7% interests while Amazon CEO Jeff Bezo's (JB)owns 19% who currently owns the most amount of shares, let's try to connect few dots together, shall we?

1. If you know anything about Amazon and J.B., it's all about dominance. Future prediction of Rivian and why it's currently valued at over 90B plus? Take a close look at the valuation of AMZN. It's bout $1.8 T. Give or take couple hundred billions. Under AMZN brand, what do you think RIVN will be worth?

2. Amazon currently have few of Rivian EV vans being used for Prime deliveries. 100,000 pre order for RIVN EV Vans are committed after a very thorough evaluation.

3. Let's take a close look at the Board of Directors for Rivian. Search up Board of Director Peter Krawiec and how he's connected with JB and Amazon.

4. And guess who's not on the board of Rivan anymore. Jim Farley of Ford.

5. D.D. (Due Dilegence) on Amazon business model and tactics.

6. D.D. on Jeff B. and his love/(pun intended) for Elon Musk and Tesla and how he got his ego scratched with being #2 on the world's richest. JB aims to dominate Retail, Transporation, and Space industry.

It's not that hard to connect the dots at the end, eh? Safe predictions would be $130 to 160's by the end of the year or at least by January.

At the end of the day, it's all a strategic move. Heard of Amazon Basics? Same principal with Rivian and J.B. is not the one to miss this strategic opportunity. This is why the predicted valuation was set so high in the beginning. But hey, what do I know?



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Jafresh

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I agree with you for the most part. JB is smart. RIVN is due for some good news s00n. Which is why I also bought more stock today when it was low.
 
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KenJ

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I really like what RIVN is doing and this is a collection of positive datapoints, but a few are not factually correct, nor a sound thesis for individual investment. I’m not saying some don’t hint at a direction, but at this point it’s still speculating quite a bit.
 

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I agree with you for the most part. JB is smart. RIVN is due for some good news s00n. Which is why I also bought more stock today when it was low.
Maybe RIVIAN Marketing and PR Departments, that have done such a great job communicating with the LE Customers, will do the same great job defending the company with the PR that is needed to help the stock. They made no attempt to tell the Press why there were new delays so the Market just has to figure it out for themselves. Why would anyone think things will change? Their very poor communication will continue until someone makes a change with the Marketing Dept.
 

mgc0216

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So work zero financial analysis you toss out a huge range. Bold move, Cotton.
 

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With the know fact that Rivian CEO owns 1.7% interests while Amazon CEO Jeff Bezo's (JB)owns 19% who currently owns the most amount of shares, let's try to connect few dots together, shall we?

Yes, RJ gave up a ton in his ownership to get Rivian to where it is. RJ also owns all of the Class B shares which he can later convert to Class A so he will own significantly more of Rivian in the future.

1. If you know anything about Amazon and J.B., it's all about dominance. Future prediction of Rivian and why it's currently valued at over 90B plus? Take a close look at the valuation of AMZN. It's bout $1.8 T. Give or take couple hundred billions. Under AMZN brand, what do you think RIVN will be worth?

You are conflating Amazon with a totally different business. Impossible to predict Rivian's future based on what Jeff B. did selling books out of his garage.

2. Amazon currently have few of Rivian EV vans being used for Prime deliveries. 100,000 pre order for RIVN EV Vans are committed after a very thorough evaluation.

4. And guess who's not on the board of Rivan anymore. Jim Farley of Ford.

Jim Farley was never on the Board at Rivian...It was I think a daughter of the Fords (Alexa Ford English) and she wasn't there very long.

6. D.D. on Jeff B. and his love/(pun intended) for Elon Musk and Tesla and how he got his ego scratched with being #2 on the world's richest. JB aims to dominate Retail, Transporation, and Space industry.

Jeff B. stepped down as CEO of Amazon...he's more interested in buying $500M yachts while Elon lives in a small house in Tx and works 80+ hrs/week. Blue Origin thus far is a huge failure in comparison to SpaceX.

It's not that hard to connect the dots at the end, eh? Safe predictions would be $130 to 160's by the end of the year or at least by January.

I bought in at DSP my 175 shares, sold 165 @ $172, and kept 10. I'm pulling for Rivian, but these next 5-6 years are going to be very difficult as they attempt to ramp production, add new factories, build out a charging network, build HUB's and Service Center, Mobile Repair fleet, on & on. All the while, now with Wall Street investors breathing down RJ's neck. Time will tell, but Rivian $130 - $160 IMHO, will not be back for some time.



 

Fred6v

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Whatever California hootch Ethan has I want some! I'm a preorder holder but no analysis would support Rivian's valuation more than GM'sor Ford's. Even if you believe F or GM could go to bankruptcy in 10 years being late to the EV party, there are over a dozen Chinese competitors already shipping thousands of cars MONTHLY. Competition will be fierce and scaling to 100s of thousands of trucks&cars ain't easy.
 

TheFuture

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First of all, sorry for the typo/grammatical errors as I'm writing this on our way up SF from LA. (Passenger)

In pass few weeks after the intro of IPO, there has nothing but negativity towards RIVN from get go, but never once any rebuttal from Rivian pumping out positive news. How many times have we heard "over valued, or "RIVN will be a biggest bubble of the century".?

Well, I'm going to be as simple as I can and later when I come back from my trip, I may or may not add more info. In meanwhile you can try to put one and one together.

With the know fact that Rivian CEO owns 1.7% interests while Amazon CEO Jeff Bezo's (JB)owns 19% who currently owns the most amount of shares, let's try to connect few dots together, shall we?

1. If you know anything about Amazon and J.B., it's all about dominance. Future prediction of Rivian and why it's currently valued at over 90B plus? Take a close look at the valuation of AMZN. It's bout $1.8 T. Give or take couple hundred billions. Under AMZN brand, what do you think RIVN will be worth?

2. Amazon currently have few of Rivian EV vans being used for Prime deliveries. 100,000 pre order for RIVN EV Vans are committed after a very thorough evaluation.

3. Let's take a close look at the Board of Directors for Rivian. Search up Board of Director Peter Krawiec and how he's connected with JB and Amazon.

4. And guess who's not on the board of Rivan anymore. Jim Farley of Ford.

5. D.D. (Due Dilegence) on Amazon business model and tactics.

6. D.D. on Jeff B. and his love/(pun intended) for Elon Musk and Tesla and how he got his ego scratched with being #2 on the world's richest. JB aims to dominate Retail, Transporation, and Space industry.

It's not that hard to connect the dots at the end, eh? Safe predictions would be $130 to 160's by the end of the year or at least by January.

At the end of the day, it's all a strategic move. Heard of Amazon Basics? Same principal with Rivian and J.B. is not the one to miss this strategic opportunity. This is why the predicted valuation was set so high in the beginning. But hey, what do I know?



Yep, as the stock price dropped, I've increased my RIVN position 5 times my original investment.
Anytime I've bought a position because I thought it was a great price at $X, it's an even better deal when the price drops... like a sale price.
 

Chris S

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IMO transparency and clear, regular communication are critical to supporting a sky-high valuation, especially with no material revenue or profitability. I'm cheering for them (and my LE), but my money is on the sidelines until they demonstrate mass production proficiency.
 

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ChrissyOne

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It's not that hard to connect the dots at the end, eh? Safe predictions would be $130 to 160's by the end of the year or at least by January.
Let’s hope so, and by the 23rd so my 127 calls don’t end up being such a long shot! ?

Seriously, though, this is my perspective, speaking as a former Amazon employee, an investor in Amazon and Apple, and now long on RIVN. . .

The noise around TSLA and RIVN now is so familiar to me, and it takes me back to 2001, when Apple was just coming back from the brink. A lot of people think Musk is like another Steve Jobs, but they have no idea what the computer industry was like back then. Apple was tiny, but the advantage they had was they knew how to make a quality product that appealed to consumers. Investors at the time didn’t understand that, because they were all fixated on the market leader - the company that was selling millions of generic commodity boxes, which were cheap, but had middling quality and unremarkable fit and finish. Everyone I knew was pumping money into DELL, because it was so obvious that their scale would make the the industry leader for the next decade. But we all know what happened.
So Musk isn’t Steve Jobs in this scenario, he’s Michael Dell. He’ll keep producing good-enough hamburgers while he can, but for how long? EV zero-to-sixty times are impressive when you have the only one, but soon everyone will be able to do that trick. So then what makes your product special? What connects with the consumer?

The Cybertruck tells me that while Tesla can make a decent car, they don’t understand truck people at all. They may do well in China, but they’re going to bungle their entry into the most profitable segment of the market in the US.

I’m moving some very long profits out of AMZN and into RIVN whenever there’s a deal. If it hits 100 I’m going on a serious shopping spree. Because I think Rivian makes the truck that people are going to want. They focus on the quality and usability of the product, and from everything we’ve seen so far, they’ve nailed it.
 

Rad

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If the stock price stays above $100 - I wonder how long it will be before they do a secondary offering? At the current valuation - they should put as much in the bank as possible.
 

ChrissyOne

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https://apple.news/AzFevgHLQQSuQPN5_JRNHRg

"If we saw Lucid and Rivian getting into the autonomous world, especially Rivian, given its relationship with Amazon, that might be more interesting," she said.
Autonomy, Wood explained, is among the surest ways electric vehicles can be commoditized. For instance, taxi fleets in the future will likely be self-driving, she said."

Well, we don't know that they're NOT doing this with Amazon, but again I see the same tendency to believe that "Commoditization = Success" that didn't work for Dell.

Full disclosure: I don't trust Cathie as far as I could throw her.
 

Friscorays

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Bummer about March 1, 2022.
 
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the long way downunder

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there has nothing but negativity towards RIVN from get go, but never once any rebuttal from Rivian pumping out positive news. How many times have we heard "over valued, or "RIVN will be a biggest bubble of the century".?
I keep up with EV and Rivian/Tesla news, I've not seen Rivian incur overly negative press.
Under AMZN brand, what do you think RIVN will be worth?
$AMZN is not the market, sector, business model or operations of $RIVN. The things Amazon and Bezos bring to Rivian are inexhaustible capital and insatiable desire to outdo Musk.
2. Amazon currently have few of Rivian EV vans being used for Prime deliveries. 100,000 pre order for RIVN EV Vans are committed after a very thorough evaluation.
I'm not aware of Amazon using any Rivian vans. Experiments and planning R&D are interesting but irrelevant. Bezos ordered an initial 100,000 Rivi-vans – this move profited Amazon more than their purchase will cost, effectively netting the business an electric fleet "for free." This move is one of those turnaround jump shots that demonstrates Bezos is a superstar. Don't fade a superstar. : )
3. Board of Director Peter Krawiec is connected with JB and Amazon.

4. on the board of Rivan anymore. Jim Farley of Ford.
Krawlec on the board. Farley off the board. What's the point?!
"Markets move" and board members move as their alliances move. Neither of these unremarkable auto industry executives tells use where they're playing for the next 10 years.
6. Bezos vs. Elon Musk and Tesla and how he got his ego scratched with being #2 on the world's richest.
For now, I see Bezos shrinking away from Musk.
Rivian and J.B. is not the one to miss this strategic opportunity. This is why the predicted valuation was set so high in the beginning. But hey, what do I know?
I'd say you know nothing. I know for sure I know nothing. Whatever RJ has planned, I'm sure he has JB held at arm's length. RJ has a bright mind – he knows when he's dancing with the devil.
p.s. the IPO strike price was not set high, it was set low by 30-50% at $50, then upped 20% then carried over a 100% gain by a market willing to participate.
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