Can the Rivian R1 production ramp beat the Tesla Model 3 ramp?

[AllInev]

Can the Rivian R1 production ramp beat the Tesla Model 3 ramp?

Sponsored

 

[SeaGeo]

Tbh, I don't think they're particularly related. Mostly because of supply issues. RJ noted their limitation right now isn't the factory, but supply constraints. So... ?‍ when they will ramp faster.

 

[Craigins]

Tbh, I don't think they're particularly related. Mostly because of supply issues. RJ noted their limitation right now isn't the factory, but supply constraints. So... ?‍ when they will ramp faster.

could be why they pause the line. if they are supply constrained and want to test maximum throughput, pause, build up parts and then crank them out at full speed.

So they could claim they hit the 200 r1 per week production rate, but since they only have supplies for say 150, it would just be that rate over fewer working days. Nothing says they have to sustain the rate for the entire week.

 

[SeaGeo]

could be why they pause the line. if they are supply constrained and want to test maximum throughput, pause, build up parts and then crank them out at full speed.

So they could claim they hit the 200 r1 per week production rate, but since they only have supplies for say 150, it would just be that rate over fewer working days. Nothing says they have to sustain the rate for the entire week.

That's my guess too.

 

[jjwolf120]

The answer is no, it is impossible for Rivian to match the model 3 ramp. The factory capacity is lower.

 

[lostpacket]

Going to be a lot of folks trying to use this yardstick without factoring COVID I think.

Plus I'm not sure how simultaneous ramping two different R1 models and the Amazon van factors in and the fact that the Model 3 was Tesla's fourth production model.

It just feels like there are too many differences to make this a useful comparison.

 

[SANZC02]

Probably better to compare to the Model S ramp that started in June 2012 so the 2012 number is 2 quarters. This was without the supply chain shortages we we are seeing now. Even Musk is saying the Model S and Model X revamps have been majorly hindered by supply chain issues.

Here are the Model S numbers 2012 thru 2019….

 

[Guy]

It is true that compared to the Mode 3 ramp there are some supply chain issues and the challenges of three vehicles being manufactured. On the positive side there is the past experience to work from rather than doing this for the first time. That helps.

 

[FutureTruck]

No, they won't be able to match that. I expect my Q4 2022 ship date of my R1T will slip by a year at least.

 

[Trandall]

No.

 

[Forager]

Why does everyone seem fixated on comparing to the Model 3 ramp? Wouldn’t comparing the Model S and X ramp be more appropriate for a first production of flagship vehicles?

I don’t expect the R1 demand to be anywhere close to the 3 or Y, so why would the R1 ramp need to be as rapid?

When the R2 starts production, then everyone can get out their calendars and track against the Model 3.

Sponsored