Article: Tesla all but confirms Cybertruck production delay until 2022

[lambo]

From https://electrek.co/2021/07/27/tesla-cybertruck-production-delayed/

In its shareholders letter, the automaker mentioned “progress” toward production, but it only wants to confirm that Cybertruck production is coming after Model Y production at Gigafactory Texas, which is planned to start “by the end of the year.”
.
.
.
This is confirmed by drone flyovers of Gigafactory Texas, which shows a lot of work happening inside of the Model Y section of the factory under construction, while the Cybertruck section appears to still be mostly empty inside.

During a conference call following the release of Tesla’s Q2 results, the automaker was asked directly about the status of Cybertruck production.

In one question, Tesla was even asked if it could “confirm” that production is still planned for this year, and it couldn’t do it.

Sponsored

 

[LoneStar]

Heard in a related report that Elon said something wild like "each CT will cost us $1 Million" if we don't get the cost efficiency expectation from the new 4680 batteries production line. Not sure exactly what he meant other than Tesla must be anticipating order-of-magnitude savings with 4680 vs. 2170 cells. There's also the "structural backbone power pack" design aspect for the 4680 batteries packaging. He's probably (facetiously) saying a complete redesign will cost $ Millions.

Sounds to me like another major obstacle (or uncertainty) about the basis for low-priced models of CT mentioned previously. Or maybe the whole design & cost basis for any CT becoming a reality anytime S-0-0-N!

 

[UT Rivian]

I’m not convinced they have finished the final design. The first they showed was an abomination.

 

[Trandall]

Now where did that thread with the betting pool of who gets to market first go?

 

[timf]

I've been saying all along the Cybertruck was nowhere near production ready. The battery cells are going to be the main limiting factor unless you want a sub-200 mile range. The insistence of a certain poster that Cybertruck was ahead of Rivian forced them onto my ignore list rather than continuing to post rebuttals.

 

[Autolycus]

The design cannot be final if only because there's a very slim chance of them getting approval to drop the side-view mirrors. Adding those to meet US regulatory requirements will alter the design and also reduce mileage by a noticeable amount. Those external mirrors really add a significant amount of drag!

 

[ajdelange]

Heard in a related report that Elon said something wild like "each CT will cost us $1 Million" if we don't get the cost efficiency expectation from the new 4680 batteries production line. Not sure exactly what he meant....

He was on one of his favorite themes which is that it is relatively easy to design a new vehicle and produce an few dozen hand built versions of it for testing etc. Relative in this context is relative to the very difficult job of establising a production line that can produce them at a reasonable cost. He was saying that he can build you a CT now for $1M. After the coming hard work is done he will be able to build you one for $69K.

 

[ajdelange]

The design cannot be final if only because there's a very slim chance of them getting approval to drop the side-view mirrors. Adding those to meet US regulatory requirements will alter the design and also reduce mileage by a noticeable amount.

I'll wager, using Elon's terms, that the machine is designed but that the machine that builds the machine is not, or at least not entirely so.

You can be sure that there is a design for a CT sans mirrors and a design for a CT with.

Those external mirrors really add a significant amount of drag!

Stick your hand out the window (careful) going 60 mph. A couple pounds of force on it I'd guess. So lets assume a pair of mirrors add 5 pounds of drag. The energy consumed in going a mile against 5 lbs drag is 5*5280*1.33582/3600 = 9.79601, call it 10 Wh/mi. That 10 Wh/mi would total 5kWh over the 500 mi range of the TriM or meaning that 5 kWh more battery pack would be needed or, looking at it another way assuming the battery pack is 225 kWh the mirrors wouild cost 5/225 = 2.2% of the range which is 11 miles. Not sure I'd call that significant with an exclamation point but I'm not sure I'd call it insignificant either.

 

[Autolycus]

Stick your hand out the window (careful) going 60 mph. A couple pounds of force on it I'd guess. So lets assume a pair of mirrors add 5 pounds of drag. The energy consumed in going a mile against 5 lbs drag is 5*5280*1.33582/3600 = 9.79601, call it 10 Wh/mi. That 10 Wh/mi would total 5kWh over the 500 mi range of the TriM or meaning that 5 kWh more battery pack would be needed or, looking at it another way assuming the battery pack is 225 kWh the mirrors wouild cost 5/225 = 2.2% of the range which is 11 miles. Not sure I'd call that significant with an exclamation point but I'm not sure I'd call it insignificant either.

It's somewhere between 2-7% added drag based on research and textbooks. Because of the cybertruck's shape, it could very need a somewhat large mirror, and the cybertruck will have a pretty low Cd overall, so I'd bet 3-5%. You're right, "significant" could imply much larger. I was just meaning that it will have a noticeable effect on range.

 

[Smithery]

I'll wager, using Elon's terms, that the machine is designed but that the machine that builds the machine is not, or at least not entirely so.

You can be sure that there is a design for a CT sans mirrors and a design for a CT with.

Stick your hand out the window (careful) going 60 mph. A couple pounds of force on it I'd guess. So lets assume a pair of mirrors add 5 pounds of drag. The energy consumed in going a mile against 5 lbs drag is 5*5280*1.33582/3600 = 9.79601, call it 10 Wh/mi. That 10 Wh/mi would total 5kWh over the 500 mi range of the TriM or meaning that 5 kWh more battery pack would be needed or, looking at it another way assuming the battery pack is 225 kWh the mirrors wouild cost 5/225 = 2.2% of the range which is 11 miles. Not sure I'd call that significant with an exclamation point but I'm not sure I'd call it insignificant either.

Your estimate is within the generally accepted range, but at the lower end.

The SAE has a bible about this - Aerodynamics of Road Vehicles - stating that having two side view mirrors cause somewhere between a 2% to 7% reduction in mileage.

I'd characterize 2% as "noticeable but not significant"

I'd characterize 7% as "huge"

I'd also wager that if the Cybertruck design larger goes forward and they add mirrors that match the current design of the truck... it'll be closer to the higher end than lower.

 

[irish26]

Cybertruck is at a stage where we finished basic engineering of the architecture of the vehicle.... we are moving into the beta phases of Cybertruck later this year.

This quote from their VP of Engineering is not exactly reassuring that it's anywhere close. I may be in the minority because I think the Cybertruck is awesome, but for now it has a lot of "too good to be true" specs when you add them all up.

 

[DuckTruck]

So, in just a few days time, we have news of Tesla opening up their Supercharger Network to everyone and announcing a delay in production of their new flagship vehicle, right? Where are all of their fanboys hailing the first bit of news as the shrewdest marketing move since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, and condemning the second bit as being completely unacceptable?

I didn't realize that the possible requirement to add side view mirrors to an automobile could be so devastating and a schedule-breaker. Where will they ever find the technology to handle that need? And here I thought an industry-disrupting & society-killing pandemic was bad.

This will apparently raise the cost of each CT from $1,000,000 to about $1,000,473. God help us! ?

 

[Jay]

@peashooter , looks like you are going to get your CT "SOON"?

 

[electruck]

CT delayed until 2022 now confirmed.

https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-electric-pickup-delay-2022/

 

[Jay]

CT delayed until 2022 now confirmed.

https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-electric-pickup-delay-2022/

@peashooter & @TessP100D , waiting for you to start ranting on tesla and elon ?

Sponsored