Analysts are bullish on Rivian

[Cavalryscout18]

After the quiet period lapsed this weekend, the analysts took positions on Rivian and most rate it as a buy with only a few hold positions and no sell positions. Some analysts have a price target of up to $170 (BoA).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergei...nge-tesla-according-to-these-major-firms/amp/

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[AdamsFan1983]

Of course they are. They work for the companies that underwrote the ipo and are heavily invested both professionally and likely personally.

Don’t get me wrong, I am bullish long term but I sold my position in the 160s, and am waiting for a sub $100 trade; don’t really care what the analysts say.

 

[Mcfly Rivian]

Of course they are. They work for the companies that underwrote the ipo and are heavily invested both professionally and likely personally.

Don’t get me wrong, I am bullish long term but I sold my position in the 160s, and am waiting for a sub $100 trade; don’t really care what the analysts say.

I'm with you, sold my Dsp shares but just jumped back in at 110. Missed the 101 low.

 

[mkg3]

Of course they are. They work for the companies that underwrote the ipo and are heavily invested both professionally and likely personally...

You do know that there is a firewall between the investment banking side and the analysts side right? There's a SEC rule about this exact thing. Violators face very stiff penalties.

There have been many, many examples where the underwriting firm's analysts come out and place sell/underweight or hold/equalweight ratings.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

You do know that there is a firewall between the investment banking side and the analysts side right? There's a SEC rule about this exact thing. Violators face very stiff penalties.

There have been many, many examples where the underwriting firm's analysts come out and place sell/underweight or hold/equalweight ratings.

You do realize that the SEC rules are routinely ignored/circumvented?

 

[protamine]

I'm overall bullish but I bought

Initial 175 @ 76
Sold 100 @ 129.50 on day 2 to recoup the initial investment and kept the 75 with a cost basis of $9/share
Bought 200 at 116 and sold 3/22 $125 Covered calls at $22/share
Bought another 125 yesterday at $117 and sold 3/22 covered calls $135 at $19 a share

I'm not clever with the accounting but I've got about $8k in free shares and $9k in call options and worst thing that could happen is I sell the whole lot for 25,000+27,000. That'd be about 61k off an investment of 40k. Not bad for a couple months.

Again I'm bearish but given that there wont be volume deliveries until March, sell some ridiculously priced options. Break even is like $158 on those, so even if it's $170 will still be ok. Cant imagine it'll be 170 in march of 22. Maybe march of 23.

 

[ChrissyOne]

The market might be underestimating how significant the Amazon relationship is.
(My opinion is that this is very true)

 

[Dbeglor]

The market might be underestimating how significant the Amazon relationship is.
(My opinion is that this is very true)

I've seen one that thinks the 100k order is stale and it will end up being 300k by 2025/2026. I could see the initial order just being for the US because they knew they had the capacity to fill it in Normal, and that as soon as they announce a UK/EU plant, they add an order for that region. I mean, just announcing an increased order would likely result in a significant offset to the expense itself by way of their stake in the company. An announcement like that (200k vans or $10b) could easily send the stock up 20% (based on revenue multiples), which currently would be worth about $4 billion to Amazon.

As long as the product delivers, they won't stop until every last mile vehicle on earth is a Rivian because the effective price factoring that in can't be matched by anyone (let alone having co-designed it).

The real question is what is that number, because the current order of 100k is multiples more than the number of gas vans they currently have in their fleet (I've seen this reported as only 30k, though that was a year or so ago). So, it's not just replacing ICE with EV, they are wanting to grow their fleet significantly.

 

[R1T_Observer]

I'm overall bullish but I bought

Initial 175 @ 76
Sold 100 @ 129.50 on day 2 to recoup the initial investment and kept the 75 with a cost basis of $9/share
Bought 200 at 116 and sold 3/22 $125 Covered calls at $22/share
Bought another 125 yesterday at $117 and sold 3/22 covered calls $135 at $19 a share

I'm not clever with the accounting but I've got about $8k in free shares and $9k in call options and worst thing that could happen is I sell the whole lot for 25,000+27,000. That'd be about 61k off an investment of 40k. Not bad for a couple months.

Again I'm bearish but given that there wont be volume deliveries until March, sell some ridiculously priced options. Break even is like $158 on those, so even if it's $170 will still be ok. Cant imagine it'll be 170 in march of 22. Maybe march of 23.

Interesting cover calls... I'll have to look into that. Thanks for putting out your thoughts on this. When I first read the S-1, I was very skeptical on the morning of 11/10, only to be WTF ??? $150+... seriously??? But I didn't put all my eggs in as I had originally thought, so with a few thousand saved from NOT going all in, maybe it's time to cover!!!

 

[protamine]

Interesting cover calls... I'll have to look into that. Thanks for putting out your thoughts on this. When I first read the S-1, I was very skeptical on the morning of 11/10, only to be WTF ??? $150+... seriously??? But I didn't put all my eggs in as I had originally thought, so with a few thousand saved from NOT going all in, maybe it's time to cover!!!

Covered calls are a safe way to go to get extra $$ with less downside. My dad started a multi billion dollar retirement company and passed that advice to me. I'm just an impatient idiot (financially) doctor and he said covered calls are a good way to get 8-12% per year, so these 20% per quarter covered calls are once in a decade kinda thing, plus the rarity of an IPO that hits.

 

[Dubs]

Of course they are. They work for the companies that underwrote the ipo and are heavily invested both professionally and likely personally.

Don’t get me wrong, I am bullish long term but I sold my position in the 160s, and am waiting for a sub $100 trade; don’t really care what the analysts say.

Yeah, I agree. Analysts are only that. They are not great predictors of an SP. the analysts have been saying my baby NIO is worth an average of $54 SP and it’s wallering at $35. To get to a $180 SP for RIVN, a lot of these guys are basing off 2029 sales to justify this. IMHO Rivian is NOT worth $115 SP at the moment. When they can show massive ramp on production and deliveries, that math starts to look more reasonable. A company with great tech, a giant new plant and 150 trucks made and delivered last month is l worth $2.00 per share to me. I love this company, fingers crossed they do hit their numbers.

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