Amazon and Rivian negotiating end of exclusivity agreement for EDV Electric Delivery Van

[Honey]

Great! Let's open these up for purchase and turn them into camper vans.

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[GeneralName]

I still think $12 is a real possibility. I really thought getting my feet wet at $19 was the right move, looks like it was way premature. This stock needs a real washout.

Currently trading below book value. Oversold.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

During the whole downtrend from some ridiculous overvalue to now, it's always been "Oh this is good for Rivian". So how is that working out?? Instead of fanboy comments why not something realistic? The stock is now down something like 90+ percent. When is enough, enough?

Imo, this isn't good for Rivian at all. I see it as a major loss of confidence from a extremely well known customer. The loss of the exclusivity PR is another hit.

I still think $12 is a real possibility. I really thought getting my feet wet at $19 was the right move, looks like it was way premature. This stock needs a real washout.

Mid-13’s as we speak. The market thinks this is not good.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Currently trading below book value. Oversold.

Oversold just means the stock can bounce up for a while while oversold oscillators clear, only to make new lows.

It was oversold many times in the past. It truly needs a washout with high volume. It looks like something in the single digits is the only way at this point.

And the recession hasn't even hit yet.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Mid-13’s as we speak. The market thinks this is not good.

The market has been right since the beginning, the fanboys have been wrong. Every. Single. Time.

I think many are tired of the never ending optimist talk.

 

[Dark-Fx]

During the whole downtrend from some ridiculous overvalue to now, it's always been "Oh this is good for Rivian". So how is that working out?? Instead of fanboy comments why not something realistic? The stock is now down something like 90+ percent. When is enough, enough?

Imo, this isn't good for Rivian at all. I see it as a major loss of confidence from a extremely well known customer. The loss of the exclusivity PR is another hit.

This absolutely is good for Rivian and it was expected sometime soon anyway. The agreement is for 100,000 vans by 2030. If Rivian is able to produce them at a rate far exceeding 10,000 this year, they are well on their way to hitting that goal.

Of course it's much easier just to spout bullshit without any actual knowledge of the situation, isn't it?

 

[Tahoe Man]

This absolutely is good for Rivian and it was expected sometime soon anyway. The agreement is for 100,000 vans by 2030. If Rivian is able to produce them at a rate far exceeding 10,000 this year, they are well on their way to hitting that goal.

Of course it's much easier just to spout bullshit without any actual knowledge of the situation, isn't it?

Mr Market thinks you're wrong too. But I guess you know better. Got it.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Mr Market thinks you're wrong too. But I guess you know better. Got it.

As if the market knew anything about fuck these days.

 

[Craigins]

Mr Market thinks you're wrong too. But I guess you know better. Got it.

Honestly, Mr. Market lacks reading comprehension when it comes to RIVN.

Nothing "analysts" have projected is grounded in reality. It really feels like they just set the bar ridiculously high in order to short the stock when they fail to meet the "analysts" projections.

This is the first company I've really watched, and it is amazing how many people can't read or refuse to read.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Honestly, Mr. Market lacks reading comprehension when it comes to RIVN.

Nothing "analysts" have projected is grounded in reality. It really feels like they just set the bar ridiculously high in order to short the stock when they fail to meet the "analysts" projections.

This is the first company I've really watched, and it is amazing how many people can't read or refuse to read.

There is a real risk to Rivian not making it until 2026 when the R2 line will start, but if they can make it that far they shouldn't have an issue staying solvent. I'm confident the executives will do what they need to in order to make it that far. The green bonds seem like the right step for them to take to secure additional funding that they might not actually need, but it's the right time for them to do it because they aren't looking like they are going to be insolvent like they might be if they waited two more years.

I have no idea how anyone could look at the negotiation of the end of the exclusivity agreement as a bad thing. Getting more companies into an EDV/RCV is going to be a good thing as long as Rivian is not overselling their capabilities. And at this point I don't think they are. There still isn't a lot of competition in that space that is producing at volume, and it looks like it's one space Tesla has no interest in trying to compete for.

 

[NY_Rob]

Amazon had always had a one-sided open marriage. Rivian now wants the same.

Thanks, I was aware of that.. but it was not important earlier because there were not other viable EDV's back whe Amazon & Rivian sealed the deal. My point is, maybe Amazon has found something they like more then the Rivian EDV and are exercising that part of the contract w/Rivian. I guess we'll see soon enough if Amazon has a new love interest outside the marriage

 

[PappaBolt]

Thanks, I was aware of that.. but it was not important earlier because there were not other viable EDV's back whe Amazon & Rivian sealed the deal. My point is, maybe Amazon has found something they like more then the Rivian EDV and are exercising that part of the contract w/Rivian. I guess we'll see soon enough if Amazon has a new love interest outside the marriage

Yes, that already happened over a year ago, January 2022. Amazon announced agreement with Ram for their upcoming electric vans.

 

[Craigins]

There is a real risk to Rivian not making it until 2026 when the R2 line will start, but if they can make it that far they shouldn't have an issue staying solvent. I'm confident the executives will do what they need to in order to make it that far. The green bonds seem like the right step for them to take to secure additional funding that they might not actually need, but it's the right time for them to do it because they aren't looking like they are going to be insolvent like they might be if they waited two more years.

I have no idea how anyone could look at the negotiation of the end of the exclusivity agreement as a bad thing. Getting more companies into an EDV/RCV is going to be a good thing as long as Rivian is not overselling their capabilities. And at this point I don't think they are. There still isn't a lot of competition in that space that is producing at volume, and it looks like it's one space Tesla has no interest in trying to compete for.

As the R1 and EDV lines ramp up, the losses will slow. The main question is if the demand for the R2 will be there, like the R1, and prove to be profitable.

As for people reading into the renegotiation, they are implying that the Amazon contract has cooled. Much like the production numbers, people probably assumed that 100k by 2030 was the minimum and expected Amazon to purchase 500k by 2030, because they are fing insane.

Expectations grounded in a drug fueled delusional reality, instead of the facts that Rivian has presented consistently since the S1 filing.

 

[kizamybute']

This would be great news. But, they'd have to increase the range of the Vans if selling to the public. Maybe not if selling just to other delivery service companies. But, these vans would have so much use in other fields if they had more than 125 miles in range. Could be a huge market for them.

 

[Dark-Fx]

This would be great news. But, they'd have to increase the range of the Vans if selling to the public. Maybe not if selling just to other delivery service companies. But, these vans would have so much use in other fields if they had more than 125 miles in range. Could be a huge market for them.

Using the test results out of Rivian's EPA filings and the standard 0.70 correction factor, the bosch motor+135kWh pack EDV 700 ends up getting rated at 201 miles of range. The enduro+94.7 kWh LFP pack looks like it would get 165 miles of range. My guess is Rivian is locking them to a lower capacity to hide the charging limits and to make them drive more predictably, but for general sales they might not do that.

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