After Labor Day, time to get to work...produce and deliver!

Autolycus

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To hit 1000 (combination of Amazon vans, R1S and R1T); I predict June 2022. I predict the first vehicle to a customer (employee of Rivian) will be made within 2 weeks of IPO (either before or after IPO).

To guide me;

  1. use Tesla Model S production ramp-up numbers as basis for what a manufacturer can theoretically do (worth noting - Tesla is vertically integrated, and does not rely on 3rd party suppliers as much as traditional auto companies. In theory - this can reduce delays)
When the Model S released, Tesla was relying on 3rd parties for most of the parts. They've shifted to more in-house stuff since then. In-house is also not inherently faster. Development and refinement of parts from scratch can add significant delays when compared to using standard parts from suppliers or even modified versions of standard parts. Both paths have the potential for delays.
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AndroidAppBundle

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Agreed. It is a double edge sword.

When the Model S released, Tesla was relying on 3rd parties for most of the parts. They've shifted to more in-house stuff since then. In-house is also not inherently faster. Development and refinement of parts from scratch can add significant delays when compared to using standard parts from suppliers or even modified versions of standard parts. Both paths have the potential for delays.
 

Zoidz

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They are quoted wanting a 10,000 acre plant. Which is.....ambitious to say the least. The plant would be 10 times the size of the largest manufacturing plant in the world (Volkswagen Wolfsburg plant). I mention this because it gives me pause to reevaluate how Rivian arrives at numbers that they quote to the press. Someone at Rivian thought it would be a good idea to say this; and while it is technically possible; all of us recognize the immense challenges that must be overcome before they try and build a factory that is 10x the size of Wolfsburg (70k people work at that Wolfsburg plant btw. I am sure it is not a linear relationship; but a 10,000 acre plant would require an immense amount of labor to staff it).
They are not building a 10,000 acre assembly plant. Therefore, your assumptions and estimates are waaaay off.

The economic development proposal said they are looking for 10,000 acres of land to build a campus, which would include a vehicle assembly plant, a battery cell assembly plant built in multiple phases, and a product and technology center. Based on these types of buildings, you can be certain that it will also include additional support facilities such as a waste water treatment plant, physical plant (utilities), warehousing, etc. Plus lots of parking space for employees and new vehicles, and perhaps a test track. State and federal regulations require and extensive stormwater management plan. HUNDREDS of acres, perhaps over 1,000 acres, will will be needed for runoff management and retention ponds.

They estimate 10,000 employees, nowhere near the size of Wolfsburg.

Reuters Article

"The plant, dubbed "Project Tera," requires an estimated 10,000 acres of land according to a revised economic development document seen by Reuters,......"

"The second plant will expand the company's capacity and include a 50 gigawatt-hour (GWh) battery cell production operation built in phases, as well as a product and technology center, according to the revised 12-page request for proposal sent to states...."

"In addition to an initial investment of about $5 billion, the plant would "support roughly 10,000+ jobs," according to the document...."
 

TessP100D

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Based on what Elon Musk is saying (sad that I look to Elon Musk for a pulse on the auto industry for EV companies....), Combined with everything we know about inventory shortages, semiconductor shortages, ports backed up, driver shortages; I expect the R1T to be delayed to Q1 2022. Even outside of Rivian; Ford and others are idling plants due to shortages.

If we see any R1T deliveries in September; they'll probably just go to Rivian staff & press / demo vehicles.

The auto industry is in gridlock.
Why is that sad? Elon’s company is the absolute leader in the EV revolution. Don‘t be sad. Be glad you’re aware that somebody had to take the lead when nobody else would. No others can follow. Rivian is following and I hope they make it.
 

Trekkie

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I think they are waiting for NHTSA ratings - illegal to sell without?
https://www.nhtsa.gov/ratings
They are an industry group, not a regulatory one. They'd need Dept of Transportation approval, can't remember the name. But you have to do certain crash tests, etc. Its been a long time since I saw it, but like with certain high end cars they don't want to destroy one so they're not 'street legal' and you can't really license the car was the example used.

NHTSA is bragging rights for how many stars and stuff, but not required to sell in the US
 

Autolycus

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They are an industry group, not a regulatory one. They'd need Dept of Transportation approval, can't remember the name. But you have to do certain crash tests, etc. Its been a long time since I saw it, but like with certain high end cars they don't want to destroy one so they're not 'street legal' and you can't really license the car was the example used.

NHTSA is bragging rights for how many stars and stuff, but not required to sell in the US
NHTSA is part of the DOT. It is definitely not just a trade group. The .gov on their website is a giveaway.

You’re probably thinking of IIHS, which is an insurance industry group that rates vehicles for its membership so the insurers know what loss risk they have from each car model.

Cars don’t have to be officially crash rated by either in order to be sold. The manufacturer simply has to certify that it has done tests and the car meets federal requirements.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/some-cars-will-never-be-crash-tested-crash-test-ratings/
 
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