After Labor Day, time to get to work...produce and deliver!

AndroidAppBundle

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To reset my own expectations; I use generous timelines that enable Rivian to have time to overcome the countless hurdles they will have.

I am a broken record around these forums when I say I predict my R1S won't be delivered until Q2-Q3 2024.

This is basically baking in a few months of delays; then using Tesla production volume for Model S to help me gauge how fast a company can go from massive factory producing 0 vehicles to assembly line producing multiple vehicles a day.

In April 2021, Rivian is quoted saying that they are able to build about one R1 vehicle a day.

If Rivian gets me my R1S in 2022; sweet. I will be happy. But if it doesn't come until 2024; that's cool, because that aligns with my own generous timeline. If I don't use a generous timeline; I set myself up for disappointment.

For new companies entering the EV space; nothing happens fast. For a tech worker that is used to seeing multiple codebases ship per day, this is a massive adjustment for me.

Let's hope I am wrong.

I agree with you that things will end up stalling but I don't think it will be quite so bad as you think. I think Rivian will prioritize (and deliver on the new schedule) the LE pre-order holders and then all of the non-LE deliveries will be delayed.
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IHScout

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To reset my own expectations; I use generous timelines that enable Rivian to have time to overcome the countless hurdles they will have.

I am a broken record around these forums when I say I predict my R1S won't be delivered until Q2-Q3 2024.

This is basically baking in a few months of delays; then using Tesla production volume for Model S to help me gauge how fast a company can go from massive factory producing 0 vehicles to assembly line producing multiple vehicles a day.

In April 2021, Rivian is quoted saying that they are able to build about one R1 vehicle a day.

If Rivian gets me my R1S in 2022; sweet. I will be happy. But if it doesn't come until 2024; that's cool, because that aligns with my own generous timeline. If I don't use a generous timeline; I set myself up for disappointment.

For new companies entering the EV space; nothing happens fast. For a tech worker that is used to seeing multiple codebases ship per day, this is a massive adjustment for me.

Let's hope I am wrong.
You must be great at parties....
 

EVTrucking

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It took me a while to reset my expectation for my R1T delivery date. Looking for alternatives to satisfy my want for an EV truck in the short term, made me realize that there are no alternatives with delivery any sooner.

Considering the legacy car manufactures shutdowns and the history of Tesla’s struggle with early production volumes really put the challenges Rivian faces into perspective.

So I will wait. With a 3/20/21 reservation date for an R1T Max I am hoping for mid to late 2023 but it could easily be sometime in 2024.

Of course I will be happy if it happens sooner.
 

nfrank

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The question shouldn’t be when they build their first vehicle, it should be when they build the thousandth vehicle. What’s our predictions on that? I’ll start:

R1T LE: March 2022
R1S LE: July 2022
R1T Max Pack: Sept 2022
 

crashmtb

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The question shouldn’t be when they build their first vehicle, it should be when they build the thousandth vehicle. What’s our predictions on that? I’ll start:

R1T LE: March 2022
R1S LE: July 2022
R1T Max Pack: Sept 2022
They will likely spin up a lot faster than that, if they’re now building production units
 

SeaGeo

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The question shouldn’t be when they build their first vehicle, it should be when they build the thousandth vehicle. What’s our predictions on that? I’ll start:

R1T LE: March 2022
R1S LE: July 2022
R1T Max Pack: Sept 2022
Sometime during these months:
R1T LE: October 2021
R1S LE: November 2021
R1T Max Pack: March 2022

Just assuming they are running at <25% to over the first two-ish months. That's assuming they don't get hit by more chip shortages than other manufacturers. It'd also be about 25% of the typical sales of each the Mach E and ID.4 this year.
 

AndroidAppBundle

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To hit 1000 (combination of Amazon vans, R1S and R1T); I predict June 2022. I predict the first vehicle to a customer (employee of Rivian) will be made within 2 weeks of IPO (either before or after IPO).

To guide me;

  1. use Tesla Model S production ramp-up numbers as basis for what a manufacturer can theoretically do (worth noting - Tesla is vertically integrated, and does not rely on 3rd party suppliers as much as traditional auto companies. In theory - this can reduce delays)
  2. Decrease production volume due to 2 vehicles sharing 1 assembly line (retooling, changing the line)
  3. Decrease production volume to account for labor shortages (shipping logistics industry, actual normal Illinois plant workers, third party suppliers)
  4. Decrease production volume to account for semiconductor shortage
  5. Decrease production volume to account for random event that is not public or even happened yet. But this is 2021, and hiccups are everywhere
  6. Decrease production volume to account for what consumers will think of as a competing Rivian side-project that steals time, talent, workers, and money from R1S / R1T; the Amazon commercial vans that occupy 1 of 2 production lines in Normal Illinois (this is cool that Rivian can build Amazon a delivery van, but......I want my R1S; I could careless what Amazon gets)
  7. Watch what’s happening at Ford, Tesla, Audi, Lordstown, GMC, Lucid, Mercedes Benz - and anyone trying to release an EV in 2021. All these brands will share the misery and misfortune of labor shortages, supply chain woes, defects & delays, etc. Ford and Tesla both waving white flags right now; indicating the whole industry is struggling to simply manufacture -any cars-, let alone EV’s



    http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21083.jpeg
 

SeaGeo

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Watch what’s happening at Ford, Tesla, Audi, Lordstown, GMC, Lucid, Mercedes Benz - and anyone trying to release an EV in 2021. All these brands will share the misery and misfortune of labor shortages, supply chain woes, defects & delays, etc. Ford and Tesla both waving white flags right now; indicating the whole industry is struggling to simply manufacture -any cars-, let alone EV’s
Ford sold ~12,000 MME in the first half of the year. VW sold ~6,000 ID.4 in Q2. that's roughly 500 cars a week each.

You're suggesting they can only deliver 4 vehicles per day split between two lines (let's assume 6 working days/week). So call it 3 R1X and 1 Van per day. When the R1S and R1T line can produce 15 per hour on it's own. You're also suggesting the will be so supply constrained that they can't deliver <5% of the vehicles that either Ford or VW *averaged* over their first quarter each, and less than 2% of the line's actual capacity. They literally can hand build them that fast. Think about how stupidly conservative that is. If *anyone* on the board thought that was a possibility they would *not* be going public. They would be failing their fiduciary duty to the shareholders.
 
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EVTrucking

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Ford sold ~12,000 MME in the first half of the year. VW sold ~6,000 ID.4 in Q2. that's roughly 500 cars a week each.

You're suggesting they can only deliver 4 vehicles per day split between two lines (let's assume 6 working days/week). So call it 3 R1X and 1 Van per day. When the R1S and R1T line can produce 15 per hour on it's own. You're also suggesting the will be so supply constrained that they can't deliver <5% of the vehicles that either Ford or VW *averaged* over their first quarter each, and less than 2% of the line's actual capacity. They literally can hand build them that fast. Think about how stupidly conservative that is. If *anyone* on the board thought that was a possibility they would *not* be going public. They would be failing their fiduciary duty to the shareholders.
Legacy car manufacturers have a huge advantage over Rivian in that they have extensive volume manufacturing experience, seasoned teams, fully functional quality control. They know their equipment ,their suppliers and their vendors. They have all their suppliers with backups qualified. Not to mention a whole organization that tracks and tackles issues.

Building some vehicles in pilot mode is a necessary step but the real challenge is being able to sustain high volume production over an extended period of time.

Reaching 1000 vehicles produced IMHO will be relatively easy compared consistently building thousands per month in the first 12-18 months of production.

Some Very early reservation holders may see their vehicles this year but IMO it will be a slow ramp up during 2022.
 

SeaGeo

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Legacy car manufacturers have a huge advantage over Rivian in that they have extensive volume manufacturing experience, seasoned teams, fully functional quality control. They know their equipment ,their suppliers and their vendors. They have all their suppliers with backups qualified. Not to mention a whole organization that tracks and tackles issues.

Building some vehicles in pilot mode is a necessary step but the real challenge is being able to sustain high volume production over an extended period of time.

Reaching 1000 vehicles produced IMHO will be relatively easy compared consistently building thousands per month in the first 12-18 months of production.

Some Very early reservation holders may see their vehicles this year but IMO it will be a slow ramp up during 2022.
Totally agree. Giving a point of reference to volume for two EVs that are new to market and "volume" means even with current supply constraints.

But even with differences between Rivian and a legacy manufacturer, they're not going to hand build trucks for the next 10 months. And a slow ramp isn't producing at <5% capacity for 10 months straight. It's some reasonably significant percentage of capacity within the first year of production. Not single digit percentage of their capacity.
 

scottkillmer

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im about ready to give up on rivian ! wtf! just be honest about delivery and any relevant info. i can handle it. but we are at September. after multiple previous delays i think the cadillac and lightening looking good . and they are putting more communication than rivian.
 

AndroidAppBundle

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Ford and VW being legacy auto cannot have the same apples to apples comparison. Lordstown, Tesla and Lucid can serve as a good reference point; for me. The supply chain, sourcing, inventory at Rivian - all starting fresh.

For reference, I posted the Model S volume ramp up chart. I am suggesting that at first - Rivian will not deliver many vehicles. Dozens per month - maybe. There will be teething pains with individual processes in the assembly line. Rivian won’t even know these bottlenecks or limitations, necessarily. They won’t know them until they experience them.

Where is the quote or source for the 15 vehicle per hour quote?

Fun facts about that Ford Cautitlan plant. It has been in use since 1964, has produced over a dozen different models.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuautitlán_Assembly

When researching this; I found a head scratcher quote. I’ve spent a little while scoping out vehicle manufacturing plants; and Rivian seems to have their heads in the clouds regarding production goals. They are quoted wanting a 10,000 acre plant. Which is.....ambitious to say the least. The plant would be 10 times the size of the largest manufacturing plant in the world (Volkswagen Wolfsburg plant). I mention this because it gives me pause to reevaluate how Rivian arrives at numbers that they quote to the press. Someone at Rivian thought it would be a good idea to say this; and while it is technically possible; all of us recognize the immense challenges that must be overcome before they try and build a factory that is 10x the size of Wolfsburg (70k people work at that Wolfsburg plant btw. I am sure it is not a linear relationship; but a 10,000 acre plant would require an immense amount of labor to staff it).

https://tourdetravoy.wordpress.com/...ne-of-the-most-visited-theme-parks-in-europe/

It makes me wonder if Rivian isn’t telling us more of what we want to hear.....vs. what we need to hear.

Ford sold ~12,000 MME in the first half of the year. VW sold ~6,000 ID.4 in Q2. that's roughly 500 cars a week each.

You're suggesting they can only deliver 4 vehicles per day split between two lines (let's assume 6 working days/week). So call it 3 R1X and 1 Van per day. When the R1S and R1T line can produce 15 per hour on it's own. You're also suggesting the will be so supply constrained that they can't deliver <5% of the vehicles that either Ford or VW *averaged* over their first quarter each, and less than 2% of the line's actual capacity. They literally can hand build them that fast. Think about how stupidly conservative that is. If *anyone* on the board thought that was a possibility they would *not* be going public. They would be failing their fiduciary duty to the shareholders.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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I do wish there was more clarity on timelines for preorder holders and I do understand the frustration for anyone who has held a preorder for years and still doesn't have a good answer on when they can expect delivery. That being said, given the choice between a lack of information being put out compared with bad/erroneous information being spouted off randomly on Twitter by the CEO, I'm going to choose the former every time. There is probably a healthy balance between the two in a perfect world.

At the end of the day, Rivian was dealt a really bad hand here. They spent 10 years planning and developing an incredible product and had all of their ducks in a row only to have planned, through no fault of their own and without being able to anticipate it, to launch 3 completely new vehicles in the most challenging manufacturing environment in the last 30 years.
 
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