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Chrisy

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Dmartin

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If it was Tesla doing it I would say it's possible since they have been building superchargers for a decade in the US. And Tesla didn't start out building 1.6 a day, it took years to get to that level. This conglomerate doesn't have the experience with the US permitting and supply chain. As I'm told when I complain about how slow Rivian is rolling out the RAN, transformers take a long time to get these days. I just don't see how they get to 1.5 a day anytime soon. But I hope I'm wrong.
Tesla built out 6,000 stations in a decade, they didn't start at 1.6 a day either, but ramped up to probably 3 a day. Expecting this group to start at 1.5 a day would be silly to, but ramping up over time to a similar rate to tesla isn't ridiculous.

I work directly in electric distribution design and construction, so I get to see a lot of the issues up close and personal. Supply chain is improving a LOT, it does take 1-1.5 years to get a transformer, but Utilities haven't been blind to EV demand and have already purchased, or put in que thousands of transformers for these installs, and because the amount of revenue a charging station can generate for a utility, they like to move fast on ensuring road blocks get cleared to help get stations built. Most of these installs will use the same 8-10 transformers across the country so that helps with the supply side as well.

Beyond that, manufacturers want to diversify their revenue portfolio's with things like SAAS and they 100% see EV charging as a way for them to get a piece of the fuel market pie. Currently the USA spends $1.3billion on fuel a day. Longer term a lot of that spend will transition to EV charging stations, not 100% of it, but maybe 20% of it (lots of home charging still), @ 20% that's $91B a year of revenue that these manufacturers want a piece of (just in the USA, and prices will almost certainly increase between now and then, those are today's dollars).

Long and short, I think this will have a rocky start as most things do, but I truly believe 2 or so years from now they will start hitting rhythm and we will see the pace of fast charger installs increase rapidly.
 

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Tesla built out 6,000 stations in a decade, they didn't start at 1.6 a day either, but ramped up to probably 3 a day. Expecting this group to start at 1.5 a day would be silly to, but ramping up over time to a similar rate to tesla isn't ridiculous.

I work directly in electric distribution design and construction, so I get to see a lot of the issues up close and personal. Supply chain is improving a LOT, it does take 1-1.5 years to get a transformer, but Utilities haven't been blind to EV demand and have already purchased, or put in que thousands of transformers for these installs, and because the amount of revenue a charging station can generate for a utility, they like to move fast on ensuring road blocks get cleared to help get stations built. Most of these installs will use the same 8-10 transformers across the country so that helps with the supply side as well.

Beyond that, manufacturers want to diversify their revenue portfolio's with things like SAAS and they 100% see EV charging as a way for them to get a piece of the fuel market pie. Currently the USA spends $1.3billion on fuel a day. Longer term a lot of that spend will transition to EV charging stations, not 100% of it, but maybe 20% of it (lots of home charging still), @ 20% that's $91B a year of revenue that these manufacturers want a piece of (just in the USA, and prices will almost certainly increase between now and then, those are today's dollars).

Long and short, I think this will have a rocky start as most things do, but I truly believe 2 or so years from now they will start hitting rhythm and we will see the pace of fast charger installs increase rapidly.
I also just don't see them being as motivated as Tesla. GM and Ford were supposed to be building a huge EV network too. And then they basically cancelled that or gutted it so much that it will be rare to see one of their chargers. Rivian is taking its sweet time to roll out the RAN, they originally said 600 locations by end of 2023 or 2024, at this rate they won't have 600 until 2030. EA has been a mess since they were forced to make chargers. I hope they are getting better but I do think that either VW needs to get serious about chargers or they just need to sell off EA to someone else. So I really don't have much confidence in companies saying that they are going to build a charging network. The only one that really has a complete network is Tesla. The others are a patchwork of chargers. Now hopefully this changes with the IRA funding.
 

Dmartin

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I also just don't see them being as motivated as Tesla. GM and Ford were supposed to be building a huge EV network too. And then they basically cancelled that or gutted it so much that it will be rare to see one of their chargers. Rivian is taking its sweet time to roll out the RAN, they originally said 600 locations by end of 2023 or 2024, at this rate they won't have 600 until 2030. EA has been a mess since they were forced to make chargers. I hope they are getting better but I do think that either VW needs to get serious about chargers or they just need to sell off EA to someone else. So I really don't have much confidence in companies saying that they are going to build a charging network. The only one that really has a complete network is Tesla. The others are a patchwork of chargers. Now hopefully this changes with the IRA funding.
Eh, being close to the industry I think it's looking better then you, But I also get to see the large backlog of chargers in design and permitting in my areas. Companies are moving forward, just takes time to spin this stuff up.
 

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One woman can make a baby in 9 months. 9 women cannot make 1 baby in a single month.
Doesn't really apply here since it's more like one woman making 42 babies a month.
 

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Eh, being close to the industry I think it's looking better then you, But I also get to see the large backlog of chargers in design and permitting in my areas. Companies are moving forward, just takes time to spin this stuff up.
Yeah that's probably true. I'm not close to the industry, just causally look out for new chargers popping up.
 

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with 30,000 charging stations....
I wonder if station mean physical locations or if it means 30,000 charging connections to charge vehicles with 4-8 (?) charging connections at at each physical location?

Edit to answer my own question....

From the Ionna press release, I think they mean 30,000 individual chargers, not locations.

For comparison, there are about 145,000 gas stations/locations in the US. There are about 2000 Tesla supercharger locations. DOE estimates 80% of EV charging is done at home. Will be problem for renters and condo owners going forward, but expect this number to always be very high, given the cost, convenience and longer battery life assoc with level 2 charging.

So, Ionna means 30,000 chargers at a few thousand (3-6k?) locations, which could make sense.
 
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R1 EVY

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I wonder if station mean physical locations or if it means 30,000 charging connections to charge vehicles with 4-8 (?) charging connections at at each physical location?
My guess would be stations, but I'm not really sure.
 

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Dark-Fx

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I wonder if station mean physical locations or if it means 30,000 charging connections to charge vehicles with 4-8 (?) charging connections at at each physical location?

There are about 145,000 gas stations/locations in the US.
Definitely not the number of locations.
 

Rob Stark

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I also just don't see them being as motivated as Tesla. GM and Ford were supposed to be building a huge EV network too. And then they basically cancelled that or gutted it so much that it will be rare to see one of their chargers. Rivian is taking its sweet time to roll out the RAN, they originally said 600 locations by end of 2023 or 2024, at this rate they won't have 600 until 2030. EA has been a mess since they were forced to make chargers. I hope they are getting better but I do think that either VW needs to get serious about chargers or they just need to sell off EA to someone else. So I really don't have much confidence in companies saying that they are going to build a charging network. The only one that really has a complete network is Tesla. The others are a patchwork of chargers. Now hopefully this changes with the IRA funding.
The Dept of Justice and CARB handed VW a mandate to build X amount of chargers on X schedule. They were not required to meet a reliability metric or uptime metric.

No one is forcing Stellantis,GM,Honda etc to build chargers.

GM and Ford pulled back when they decided to get access to the Supercharger Network and form Ionna. A similar effort in Europe, Ionity, seems to be a success.

VW handed everyone with the capacity to manufacture commercial DC fastchargers in North America at scale a contract. Now we know which ones are more reliable and which ones are total crap. Some of the better European manufactures are entering the North American market. And longtime American supplier to Electric Power Companies, Lincoln Electric, is going to enter the market.

As far as the CEO of Ionna, they should just hire a 23 year old electrical engineer. No record of failure.
 

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"Competition for reliability and amenities would be a welcome evolution in EV charging. As more than one EV driver has observed—perhaps after arriving at a prison-lit Walmart parking lot in the pouring rain to discover one or more non-working chargers—shouldn’t charging your electric vehicle be at least as reliable and pleasant as your average . . . gas station?"

I definitely want more amenities. You know, French pastries.
 

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