$55 bux a share around noon - How low can RIVN go ?

[RideAlong]

Anyone load up at 55 today - ? closed at 63.90 - bottled lightning or static cling ?

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[stickyfingers]

Anyone load up at 55 today - ? closed at 63.90 - bottled lightning or static cling ?

Apparently a lot of limit orders kicked in with a lot of stocks that's why in the morning the market dropped sharply and came back level set when people started buying again. A lot of margin calls. Still thinking this is going to go down further. A lot of people made a lot of money today that know what the hell is going on.

 

[RideAlong]

Apparently a lot of limit orders kicked in with a lot of stocks that's why in the morning the market dropped sharply and came back level set when people started buying again. A lot of margin calls. Still thinking this is going to go down further. A lot of people made a lot of money today that know what the hell is going on.

agreed , and those that just see the ticker only know it IPO'd at 78. yikes.

 

[Scoiatael]

My guess is $45 is the floor. I doubt it'll go lower than that unless Russia invades Ukraine and the whole market tanks.

 

[Ladiver]

I think $45 is going to be pretty close, but will stabilize around $50. This will come the day of or 1 day after their earnings report. One good side to the much lower value is that not as many employees will be offloading their stock at the first opportunity.

**If you follow my financial advice, you deserve to lose everything! I am not a fiduciary and only serve my own interests.**

 

[ironpig]

Still waiting for $40. I have an order set for that. I don’t think it will go much lower but maybe $35.

the big mistake Rivian made was to increase the IPO price from the initial $50 range to $78. It was at least a little closer to reasonable at $50 but $78 was just greed in action.

 

[SANZC02]

Still waiting for $40. I have an order set for that. I don’t think it will go much lower but maybe $35.

the big mistake Rivian made was to increase the IPO price from the initial $50 range to $78. It was at least a little closer to reasonable at $50 but $78 was just greed in action.

I disagree, the price now does not impact their cash reserves, it only needs to go back up later as it will impact their ability to borrow money if needed.

With the IPO they needed the cash to complete the 3 vehicle launches and immediate expansion plans. Selling lower would have just been irresponsible and left a lot of needed money off the table. There was a lot of analyses done on what they could get for the IPO that put Rivian as well as the people investing in them in the best position for success.

 

[Ladiver]

I disagree, the price now does not impact their cash reserves, it only needs to go back up later as it will impact their ability to borrow money if needed.

With the IPO they needed the cash to complete the 3 vehicle launches and immediate expansion plans. Selling lower would have just been irresponsible and left a lot of needed money off the table. There was a lot of analyses done on what they could get for the IPO that put Rivian as well as the people investing in them in the best position for success.

I agree with most of what you said. From a business standpoint, Rivian completely over sold themselves to investors. Shame on the big boys for not seeing through the smoke and mirrors. Good for RJ to get the cash they so desperately needed.

I doubt a stock price between $40 and $50 will hurt them. It is a realistic value and lenders could see an upside. At $78, there is no upside as the value was based on achieving all of their perfect scenario goals.

I guess we are 3-5 years before getting back to $78.

 

[dpc166]

I'm just buying across the spectrum to build a portfolio over the next 5 years and not worrying about the volatility.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Still waiting for $40. I have an order set for that. I don’t think it will go much lower but maybe $35.

the big mistake Rivian made was to increase the IPO price from the initial $50 range to $78. It was at least a little closer to reasonable at $50 but $78 was just greed in action.

So you're saying Rivian made a mistake by allowing their IPO price to be adjusted up based on demand and they should have left that additional runway on the table in favor of a stock price more reflective of their actual value?

I'm pretty sure anybody involved in that decision could have been terminated for gross incompetence if they did that. At their current burn rate the additional money they raised by adjusting the IPO price up could be as much as a full year of funding without revenue.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

So you're saying Rivian made a mistake by allowing their IPO price to be adjusted up based on demand and they should have left that additional runway on the table in favor of a stock price more reflective of their actual value?

I'm pretty sure anybody involved in that decision could have been terminated for gross incompetence if they did that. At their current burn rate the additional money they raised by adjusting the IPO price up could be as much as a full year of funding without revenue.

Right, people seem to forget what the purpose of the stock market is; to raise capital for business interests.

 

[ajdelange]

Right, people seem to forget what the purpose of the stock market is; to raise capital for business interests.

That's certainly what it was but I'm not so sure that's what it is any more.

 

[cardad]

I agree with most of what you said. From a business standpoint, Rivian completely over sold themselves to investors. Shame on the big boys for not seeing through the smoke and mirrors. Good for RJ to get the cash they so desperately needed.

I doubt a stock price between $40 and $50 will hurt them. It is a realistic value and lenders could see an upside. At $78, there is no upside as the value was based on achieving all of their perfect scenario goals.

I guess we are 3-5 years before getting back to $78.

Someone should do a survey of forum members on what price they sold at (if they sold) to get some data.

I made $34/share within minutes of day 1 and now buying back into the stock with a larger position my basis is still pretty close to half the IPO price. If RIVN actually moves lower to half of the IPO price we're now looking at an 80+% retreat from the 52 week high. Seems unlikely to hold below $40 or $50 for any amount of time without massive institutional buying / short covering etc. Shorts are driving the market now but even they know not to get too greedy given the nature of data to come in on the wrong side of expectations.

 

[kanundrum]

 

[jjswan33]

I don’t think we can know the true floor until the lock in period for insiders finishes. For example I know Ford recently said they had no plans on selling but why would they say if they were going to sell until they actually can. Also I am sure some employees that got stock grants will sell too.

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