Sponsored

$55 bux a share around noon - How low can RIVN go ?

sub

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2021
Threads
21
Messages
1,365
Reaction score
2,352
Location
USA
Vehicles
Rivian R1S, Tesla Model 3
But this is a bit scarey...


I can see it continuing to drop a bit more, but I don't see how it could possibly fall that low.

From a bit of googling, the cash they raised during the IPO comes out to a bit over $13 per share. For the price to drop to $10-$15 range, you would have to value everything else they own (equipment/materials/factory/preorders and IP ) as worth 0.

Predicting $10-$15 per share in the near future is predicting that someone will scoop them up and liquidate. We aren't getting our cars if it drops that low.
Sponsored

 

intimidator

Well-Known Member
First Name
TJ
Joined
Nov 27, 2020
Threads
1
Messages
172
Reaction score
149
Location
Virginia
Vehicles
Ford F150, BMW 3GT
Occupation
Business owner
I can see it continuing to drop a bit more, but I don't see how it could possibly fall that low.

From a bit of googling, the cash they raised during the IPO comes out to a bit over $13 per share. For the price to drop to $10-$15 range, you would have to value everything else they own (equipment/materials/factory/preorders and IP ) as worth 0.

Predicting $10-$15 per share in the near future is predicting that someone will scoop them up and liquidate. We aren't getting our cars if it drops that low.
Good analysis approach.

$40 would probably be the floor on some really bad week on Wall Street....

The upside of Rivian stock is what investors should really look at. It will be hard in the next 3 years to justify $85-$100 a share stock without a tremendous improvement in production speed.
 

Nine_One_Six_R1S

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
176
Reaction score
81
Location
Sacto, CA
Vehicles
N/A
Clubs
 
I am thinking its just a matter of time before it does was Teslas share did years ago, and go from 50 bucks a share up to nearly 1g. I will be happy!
I also think this is a long term investment, very long, if you decide to jump in. Granted Tesla was a different animal back then but traded around ipo range for many, many years. It started to significantly appreciate in stock price until ~ 10 years after IPO. I would be ecstatic if Rivian is a similar success story compared to Tesla
 

TollKeeper

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brian
Joined
Feb 1, 2022
Threads
12
Messages
804
Reaction score
745
Location
Brighton, CO
Vehicles
24 Rivian R1S, 04 GMC Envoy XUV, 05 Saturn Relay 3
Occupation
Ast HR Director
I also think this is a long term investment, very long, if you decide to jump in. Granted Tesla was a different animal back then but traded around ipo range for many, many years. It started to significantly appreciate in stock price until ~ 10 years after IPO. I would be ecstatic if Rivian is a similar success story compared to Tesla
I dont think Rivian, if they can get their production line going, is going to be nearly as long of a process. Tesla had a lot of teeth cutting to do, charging network to support it, technology platforms to build, code to write, etc. For Rivn, Nearly everything is in place, except their production.. Which is almost there.. ALMOST!
 

AllInev

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 22, 2021
Threads
20
Messages
1,039
Reaction score
1,659
Location
Oakland, CA
Vehicles
Prius V, R1T
I dont think Rivian, if they can get their production line going, is going to be nearly as long of a process. Tesla had a lot of teeth cutting to do, charging network to support it, technology platforms to build, code to write, etc. For Rivn, Nearly everything is in place, except their production.. Which is almost there.. ALMOST!
Except for the charging network. Rivian still has to build that. And the Service network which they still need to build. And a couple more factories to build. I guess the real difference between Tesla back then and Rivian now is the $20 billion in cash that Rivian has. ;-)
 

Sponsored

TollKeeper

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brian
Joined
Feb 1, 2022
Threads
12
Messages
804
Reaction score
745
Location
Brighton, CO
Vehicles
24 Rivian R1S, 04 GMC Envoy XUV, 05 Saturn Relay 3
Occupation
Ast HR Director
Except for the charging network. Rivian still has to build that. And the Service network which they still need to build. And a couple more factories to build. I guess the real difference between Tesla back then and Rivian now is the $20 billion in cash that Rivian has. ;-)
Rivian has to build THEIR charging network, But otherwise the charging network already exists. As for the service network.. That all depends on your perspective. If they have this mobile service network, then its already in place (minus the people being hired for it). But if you are talking about a dealer type environment, then yes.. Unless they just go around buying retired dealers (like they did the Mitsubishi plant), something that already has the service bays, lifts, doors, etc. Just way to much parking lot.. Which they could rent out to ???

But, it all comes down to perspective.
 

SANZC02

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bob
Joined
Feb 11, 2021
Threads
29
Messages
5,260
Reaction score
8,863
Location
California
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, LE - R1S
Occupation
Retired
Rivian has to build THEIR charging network, But otherwise the charging network already exists. As for the service network.. That all depends on your perspective. If they have this mobile service network, then its already in place (minus the people being hired for it). But if you are talking about a dealer type environment, then yes.. Unless they just go around buying retired dealers (like they did the Mitsubishi plant), something that already has the service bays, lifts, doors, etc. Just way to much parking lot.. Which they could rent out to ???

But, it all comes down to perspective.
Would not have to be dealerships. Think of all of the Sears auto motive service centers that have closed in the last decade. I’m sure there are others as well, these buildings would be great for service centers, probably get a deal on a lease, already zoned for the use, and would not take a lot to build out.
 

E.S.

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
825
Reaction score
1,057
Location
Florida
Vehicles
Chevy Bolt
Occupation
Retired
Think of all of the Sears auto motive service centers that have closed in the last decade.

Sears?! People remember S E A R S?? Next we'll get someone remembering 2 Guys or Woolsworth ;)
 

Redline

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2021
Threads
36
Messages
1,396
Reaction score
2,609
Location
Edina, MN
Vehicles
Rivian R1S
Clubs
 
There’s been some very bullish option flows into RIVN lately.
 
Last edited:

NmbrsNvrLie

Well-Known Member
First Name
Ryan
Joined
Nov 10, 2021
Threads
18
Messages
120
Reaction score
108
Location
Texas
Vehicles
Mustang Mach-E GT
Really wish I understood how to actually buy options. Only would really dabble in buying call options on some tickers I think could pop.
 

Sponsored

TollKeeper

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brian
Joined
Feb 1, 2022
Threads
12
Messages
804
Reaction score
745
Location
Brighton, CO
Vehicles
24 Rivian R1S, 04 GMC Envoy XUV, 05 Saturn Relay 3
Occupation
Ast HR Director
Sears?! People remember S E A R S?? Next we'll get someone remembering 2 Guys or Woolsworth ;)
What about Montgomery Wards, or Venture, Grandpa Pigeons, Circuit City...

But the Sears idea is not actually that bad, other than they end up with a large department store, and parking lot, they don't need.
 

Redline

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2021
Threads
36
Messages
1,396
Reaction score
2,609
Location
Edina, MN
Vehicles
Rivian R1S
Clubs
 
Really wish I understood how to actually buy options. Only would really dabble in buying call options on some tickers I think could pop.
Just buying calls isn’t very complicated.
 

E.S.

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
825
Reaction score
1,057
Location
Florida
Vehicles
Chevy Bolt
Occupation
Retired
But the Sears idea is not actually that bad, other than they end up with a large department store, and parking lot, they don't need.
Can't help but agree here. All those empty locations that were already established as a service center would be a great snatch and could be easily converted to accommodate Rivian's requirements, not to mention how less expensive it will be to reformat it.
 

Nine_One_Six_R1S

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
176
Reaction score
81
Location
Sacto, CA
Vehicles
N/A
Clubs
 
I dont think Rivian, if they can get their production line going, is going to be nearly as long of a process. Tesla had a lot of teeth cutting to do, charging network to support it, technology platforms to build, code to write, etc. For Rivn, Nearly everything is in place, except their production.. Which is almost there.. ALMOST!
To my eyes, and I don't really follow either company that close lol, Rivian is ahead of where Tesla was if you use the 6 months ahead of IPO reference. So I agree in may not take them as long but probably are still looking at ~7 or 8 years.

.... Rivian still has to build that. And the Service network which they still need to build.
Everyone I personally know that owns a Tesla is struggling to get a decent service experience recently. when I talk to them they always compare the early days saying it was awesome (specially Model S owners). Rivian I think may experience similar levels of service initially but over time and once production/adoption increases I ma not sure they will keep up.

Personally the mobile service may not be the best solution long time. Maybe if we could have an in-between. For instance have a physical service center within 100 miles of the majority of buyers. Not sure what that would look like or if it's even feasible. Sounds easy near major metro areas but in more remote areas you are SOL.
Sponsored

 
Last edited:
 




Top