25,000 unit production goal might be tough

[MoreTrout]

The generally quoted goal of ~15,000 R1's and ~10,000 EDVs isn't looking too good for reaching the 25,000 goal by the end of the year. Based on VINs, I think the 15k will be exceeded, but this release from Amazon about being excited to have 1,000 on the road suggests 10k in the next several weeks is very, very unlikely.

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/tr...n-van-expands-to-100-us-cities-by-end-of-2022

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[Jac]

I’m not so pessimistic. This was the annual production goal - not delivered goal. Someone posted photos yesterday of the rows and rows of new delivery vans outside the plant in Normal. Based on recent VINs posted for R1Ts, the total R1T/S production volume for 2022 looks like it will handily exceed 15,000.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

The way things are going, Rivian is going to be well past 20K R1s by the end of the year. But we’ll know more when they report earnings on the 9th.

 

[moosetags]

Does anyone have any idea of how many R1 orders are still in place?

Brian

 

[MoreTrout]

Does anyone have any idea of how many R1 orders are still in place?

Brian

98k net at the end of June. They only update it quarterly, so any number at this point is just someone's guess. Should get the new number from them Wednesday.

 

[Yossarian]

I just posted a new thread with a link to an article that had as part of its headline that Rivian has delivered "over a thousand" EDV's to Amazon. I realize that is deliveries, not the number produced, but it still seems relatively small, though delivery really didn't begin until this summer.

 

[MoreTrout]

I'm a little more optimistic with the good points in the replies above. Production is much more likely to reach 25k, even if deliveries don't. Having "over a thousand" on the road with a goal to have "thousands" by the end of the year probably indicates production should easily be in the 3-5k range. I don't think Sgt Beavis is being too optimistic with his prediction of 20k R1s produced either. So getting to a 25k produced is much more achievable than 25k delivered, but that is what their goal was.

 

[Zoidz]

Based on VINs, I think the 15k will be exceeded, but this release from Amazon about being excited to have 1,000 on the road suggests 10k in the next several weeks is very, very unlikely.

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/tr...n-van-expands-to-100-us-cities-by-end-of-2022

I'm not sure how you can draw any realistic conclusions about future production at all from this article that talks about EDVs being deployed in July-Oct. Do you have access to all the latest VINs of all three vehicles - R1S, R1T, and EDV?

Rivian produced 14.3k vehicles thru September 30, with 7.3k of them in the 3rd quarter. It's not a huge stretch to ramp to produce 10k vehicles in the last quarter if they have no supply chain constraints. It's about 20 more vehicles a day per line. Running a full 2nd shift can cover that. They have hit their production targets the past two quarters so I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[NY_Rob]

keep in mind while counting VIN's... R1T's started at VIN 1,000 so VIN 15,000 = 14K vehicles produced.

 

[Prime]

keep in mind while counting VIN's... R1T's started at VIN 1,000 so VIN 15,000 = 14K vehicles produced.

Why would the ones that went to employees not count? Weren’t they among the first 1k. Employees weren’t given them for free. They were purchased vehicles. They should be counted in the total production.

 

[BillyBob]

Why would the ones that went to employees not count? Weren’t they among the first 1k. Employees weren’t given them for free. They were purchased vehicles. They should be counted in the total production.

But weren't most of those 1000 (or so) Employee vehicles made in 2021? They shouldn't count into the 2022 numbers.

 

[NY_Rob]

^ the employee vehicles were "production" vehicles where the VIN's started at 1,000. Employee's didn't get sub 1,000 VIN's.

VIN's below 1,000 were mules, prototypes, ets.. that were not sold or given away (except for maybe JR's and the COO's personal vehicles).

 

[Prime]

But weren't most of those 1000 (or so) Employee vehicles made in 2021? They shouldn't count into the 2022 numbers.

Ah fair point, I was thinking total number not numbers produced in 2022 which is what their guidance is suggesting.

 

[DJG]

The generally quoted goal of ~15,000 R1's and ~10,000 EDVs isn't looking too good for reaching the 25,000 goal by the end of the year. Based on VINs, I think the 15k will be exceeded, but this release from Amazon about being excited to have 1,000 on the road suggests 10k in the next several weeks is very, very unlikely.

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/tr...n-van-expands-to-100-us-cities-by-end-of-2022

They backed off the 10k EDV goal a long time ago. Think it was the Q2 Earnings call that RJ gave a vague answer that indicated closer to 2/3rds of the 25k would be R1's.

 

[SeaGeo]

^ the employee vehicles were "production" vehicles where the VIN's started at 1,000. Employee's didn't get sub 1,000 VIN's.

VIN's below 1,000 were mules, prototypes, ets.. that were not sold or given away (except for maybe JR's and the COO's personal vehicles).

Off topic, but that makes it even more confusing that my VIN is 14xx but was delivered in late May.

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