2022 Q3 Rivian Earnings to be reported November 9, 2022

[Bradyb23]

I didn't see this tread get started yet but given all of the Rivian news of late, wanted to get it going so I could read what other forum members who follow this closely and/or are experts about this stuff think.

The Q3 earnings call is not until November 9, but Rivian is already reporting its numbers, the pundits are already questioning Rivian's ability to meet its 25K delivery target for 2022, and the all-vehicle voluntary recall has thrown a wrench into things. I remain convinced that Rivian is making extraordinary EVs, but I don't own one yet. Maybe my R1S number gets called sometime in mid 2023...but maybe that's wishful thinking? The old stories about Musk sleeping on the factory floor during the make-or-break months for Tesla have me thinking Rivian is going through expected growing pains, but again, would love to read what other forum members who follow this stuff closely/know what they're talking about think. Two links:

https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-sets-date-for-release-of-third-quarter-2022-results

and

https://electrek.co/2022/10/04/rivian-confirms-production-of-7363-electric-pickups-and-suvs-in-q3-a-significant-ramp/#:~:text=Rivian (RIVN) announced that it,over the last 12 months.

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[KingTodd]

I just bought some more RIVN stock, so you can be damn sure it will go down within 2 weeks as what always happens anytime I buy any stock.

WIth that said, they released their Q3 production numbers a while ago, so I would expect any weary investor would have seen that and sold by now.

I will be more focused on new reservations than output given their output is close to what htey said they woudl do in 2022....but I am not a trader.

 

[Aroohoo]

Re: deliveries, if you look at when they released their 3Q deliveries and reaffirmed guidance for 25k units this year, the price went up.

IMO, what we are seeing in the price movement this past week is the effect of the publicity on the recall and tracking to the broader market.
re: recall, the effect is outsized because there isn't much other info to go on ATM. Big picture, checking torque on 10k units is peanuts when you consider the recalls that traditional manufacturers do.

I bought the dip to lower my cost average.

 

[Pattertj]

I just bought some more RIVN stock, so you can be damn sure it will go down within 2 weeks as what always happens anytime I buy any stock.

WIth that said, they released their Q3 production numbers a while ago, so I would expect any weary investor would have seen that and sold by now.

I will be more focused on new reservations than output given their output is close to what htey said they woudl do in 2022....but I am not a trader.

Like a fine wine, takes time. Long term vision. I remember early Amazon and all the naysayers

 

[Dark-Fx]

Big picture, checking torque on 10k units is peanuts when you consider the recalls that traditional manufacturers do.

Cost per vehicle is probably somewhere between $50-100 for this recall. There's a lot of overhead in the administration of a recall.

 

[jackr1182]

I think a lot of people are just overreacting. There were are always a lot of production issues with new vehicles, and a start-up is especially susceptible when trying to ramp production.
What most retail investors, and I believe institutional investors, are missing is their due diligence.
Rivian advised at the end of Q2 they would have open a second shift by the end of Q3. They made it happen, and they hit the production number.
They’re currently hiring for a third shift, which wasn’t reported officially yet (jobs are posted online). When I saw that, I felt really comfortable investing more. If they get the third shift up and running by early next month, I think they’ll hit 25k with ease.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

I think a lot of people are just overreacting. There were are always a lot of production issues with new vehicles, and a start-up is especially susceptible when trying to ramp production.
What most retail investors, and I believe institutional investors, are missing is their due diligence.
Rivian advised at the end of Q2 they would have open a second shift by the end of Q3. They made it happen, and they hit the production number.
They’re currently hiring for a third shift, which wasn’t reported officially yet (jobs are posted online). When I saw that, I felt really comfortable investing more. If they get the third shift up and running by early next month, I think they’ll hit 25k with ease.

yea; hiring is definitely underway for the third shift. Not sure how early it will be brought online though. I know they're promoting a hiring event on Oct 22 in Normal; and it sounds like they're basically hiring anyone they can. Offering ~$21/hr, no experience req-will train.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Cost per vehicle is probably somewhere between $50-100 for this recall. There's a lot of overhead in the administration of a recall.

I put a lot of doubt on it even being $25 per unit. For one, there are no parts to be replaced. And 2nd, it takes 3 to 5 minutes to do it. The recall line at the service center moves incredibly fast from what I've seen.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I put a lot of doubt on it even being $25 per unit. For one, there are no parts to be replaced. And 2nd, it takes 3 to 5 minutes to do it. The recall line at the service center moves incredibly fast from what I've seen.

There is a cost already absorbed per unit before your truck even shows up to get it done.

 

[e4gaa1104]

Nov 9. Same day as Volvo will reveal the EX90. Perhaps the first true competitor to the R1S

 

[dp351]

I thought the world over reacted to this recall, which I consider to be about as cheap & easy as a recall could ever be. So I bought more RIVN stock yesterday.

My over reaction thoughts were confirmed this morning when I heard a radio talk show host say “Rivian is recalling every vehicle they’ve ever sold”, and when the co-host asked what the recall was for, he said “I don’t know”.

To me, the tonneau cover is a bigger problem than this recall, and correcting it will increase production time & cost. However, because this is not in the “safety” category, I don’t expect it to require the same sort of recall & negative publicity.

 

[mkg3]

Tomorrow is the day. Questions, questions, questions...

- How many manufactured in Q3?
- Still on target for 25k in 2022?
- 2nd and 3rd shift up and running?
- Backlog?
- Guidance for Q4 and 2023?
- Product mix going forward between R1T/S and EDV?
- Status of Dual Motor?
- Status of R2?
- Status of GA factory?

So what do you guys think? Anything we don't already know about?

 

[kvenom]

Hope it's not as dire as Lucid, missed revenue expectations, lost reservations, and posted $530M loss.

 

[BobinIndy]

Tomorrow is the day. Questions, questions, questions...

- How many manufactured in Q3?
- Still on target for 25k in 2022?
- 2nd and 3rd shift up and running?
- Backlog?
- Guidance for Q4 and 2023?
- Product mix going forward between R1T/S and EDV?
- Status of Dual Motor?
- Status of R2?
- Status of GA factory?

So what do you guys think? Anything we don't already know about?

They provided Q3 production #’s back on 10/3: https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-produced-7363-vehicles-in-q3-2022

Curious as well on all of your other questions though…

 

[Jac]

CV/half-shaft quality issue acknowledged? Action plan?

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