2022 Q1 Earnings Report & Shareholder Letter

[EVTrucking]

Roughly 15% of Rivian’s pre orderers will be the lucky few to get an R1 in 2022. Hopefully another 15% in 2023.

No Parts = No R1s

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[mgc0216]

Roughly 15% of Rivian’s pre orderers will be the lucky few to get an R1 in 2022. Hopefully another 15% in 2023.

You don't expect them to scale at all in 2023?

 

[Craigins]

You don't expect them to scale at all in 2023?

maybe he is using positive thinking. Rivian preorders will increase at the same rate as production! lol

 

[ERguy]

If they are actively delivering the R1S, why haven't we seen any review videos?

Is Rivian not loaning vehicles too the media for reviews?

 

[SeaGeo]

If they are actively delivering the R1S, why haven't we seen any review videos?

Is Rivian not loaning vehicles too the media for reviews?

Doesn't seem like they're doing media reviews yet. But we are seeing R1S in the wild that I don't think we have seen before (such as the launch green one).

 

[Guy]

As pointed out by others delivery seems to also be a bottle neck. They have done factory pick up before at the end of March event. If they moved to do this monthly they could easily deliver 300 plus vehicles per quarter (are high is around 7 or 8% of expected quarterly volume). They would do this by having 25 staff and four pick up sessions at each event (9am, 11am, 1pm and 3pm for example). One hour for running through the vehicle with the customer, then the vehicle get moved while the owner goes on a factory tour and the next set of vehicles get put in position for the next wave of people.

This would speed up delivery, create additional space in the shipment system (car carrier or train), save money and potentially reduce transportation damage. All are positives for Rivian. This is also scalable as they could easily move to weekly or daily pick ups.

 

[VermontR1T]

Interesting paragraph on a soon to be updated reservation process. This is a smart move in light of supply chain constraints and inflation. Shareholder friendly too.

“As demand for our products continues to grow, we remain focused on evolving our preorder processes to better manage our large backlog. Soon we will be launching an updated reservation system for new customers that separates the reservation and configuration steps. New customers will still be able to browse through options; however, the ability to save a specific configuration will not happen until closer to a customer’s build slot. This change ensures that when a build is configured, the customer is choosing from the latest features, packages, and pricing.”

 

[AdamsFan1983]

As pointed out by others delivery seems to also be a bottle neck. They have done factory pick up before at the end of March event. If they moved to do this monthly they could easily deliver 300 plus vehicles per quarter (are high is around 7 or 8% of expected quarterly volume). They would do this by having 25 staff and four pick up sessions at each event (9am, 11am, 1pm and 3pm for example). One hour for running through the vehicle with the customer, then the vehicle get moved while the owner goes on a factory tour and the next set of vehicles get put in position for the next wave of people.

This would speed up delivery, create additional space in the shipment system (car carrier or train), save money and potentially reduce transportation damage. All are positives for Rivian. This is also scalable as they could easily move to weekly or daily pick ups.

Yes. Went through delivery on Tuesday. They are clearly still figuring things out re: delivery logistics. It went fine but it definitely was not seamless especially the scheduling part. Still, not complaining; it wasnt that big a deal to me and I have my truck. I’m thrilled and wearing @DuckTruck s permagrin.

 

[zipzag]

Adam Jonas

They also plan on adding a second shift this summer so as long as they get the parts the lines will run longer each day.

They could realistically double production each quarter this year.

I don't see finished vehicles sitting at the factory for a week or two as an issue. They are bring a whole distribution system to life which is too complex to be smooth at this point in time.

 

[EVTrucking]

Adam Jonas


They could realistically double production each quarter this year.

I don't see finished vehicles sitting at the factory for a week or two as an issue. They are bring a whole distribution system to life which is too complex to be smooth at this point in time.

Just curious as to how Rivian can double production if they don’t have the parts?

 

[moosehead]

Morgan Stanley leaned into RJ and Claire pretty hard yesterday, but both stood their ground on supply chain improvements and Rivian ramp in the year for the year.

Rather than take the bait on downside cost cutting measures, their responses were steadfast and showed confidence in Rivian's ability to produce 150k vehicles stabilized out of Normal, improved economies of scale, near-term 2022 improvement in supplier materials, pricing power, strong demand, and $17B in cash on hand to support their plan. Reiterating 25k unit production for 2022 with supply constraints firmly in mind was reassuring despite macro pressures.

While I share the market's overall skepticism about massively aggressive growth "run rates" as many times those hockey sticks never materialize, Rivian's growth story looks achievable despite headwinds.

We'll see. It's show me time.

 

[DJG]

Just curious as to how Rivian can double production if they don’t have the parts?

I know that's your mantra, but they said they have the parts to start doing double shifts this summer. It doesn't mean that supply chain isn't still an issue, just that it's less of an issue than before. While everyone is on the supply chain issue spectrum, Rivian was on the far negative end of it due to a lack of track record and uncertainty from suppliers. As they have started and increased production, they have proven themselves to earn more allocations/attention from suppliers, including semiconductors. So, while they are still going to be in a worse position than Ford and be below average, they can still improve their position slightly from "dire" to "constrained".

To quote them from the call "We couldn't be more confident" in the 25k production forecast for this year. That's a really bold claim in May on an earnings call unless you mean it.

 

[zipzag]

Just curious as to how Rivian can double production if they don’t have the parts?

Obviously they can't. RJ suggests the situation is improving.

Rivian's learning curve is currently steep. They are smarter each month on how to make vehicles. Organizationally they are the best funded statup of their type ever. By the end of the year making 3-4K R1s a month is reasonable. If they have the parts.

 

[Zoidz]

Just curious as to how Rivian can double production if they don’t have the parts?

If you are take an optimistic view that Rivian and suppliers have been trying to fix the supply chain issues for the past six months, then it’s plausible that they have a better perspective on lead times and forecasting, and believe they can ramp up in the next few months because they will have the parts.

 

[EVTrucking]

RJ saying they are Still on target for 25k in 2022 indicates NO upside. More production just depletes parts sooner and idles workers for longer periods of time.

Corporate speak, proclaim anything remotely positive and whisper/spin the negative.

For the 15k folks at the head of the line it’s a very different story than for folks behind you.

Slice and dice and regurgitate the earnings calls but the clear message is a tiny percentage of R1s will be produced in 2022 due to parts shortages.

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