2022 Q1 Earnings Report & Shareholder Letter

[Cosmacelf]

Demand isn’t going to be a problem for Rivian for years, don’t know why people cant see that. Rivian should be devoting $0 to marketing.

 

[DJG]

2533 vehicles produced in Q1, 1227 delivered

Yep, they reported that back in early April.

 

[mgc0216]

Looks to me like they over hired anticipating a manufacturing ramp that hasn’t materialized which means they aren’t very nimble in their decision making.

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second. They are dealing with a very competitive labor market, so I think it's fair to assume that hiring "on demand" is not feasible. I think getting folks in, getting them trained, and being able to respond when the supply is available is a better bet than trying to hire and onramp folks onto a new production line when supply conditions are more favorable - this to me sounds like a recipe for poor quality and/or reduced productivity - which will cost you more in the long run.

 

[BrayBay]

Did I hear that correctly? R2 in Georgia by 2025?

 

[nc10]

1. They delivered half the vehicles they produced in Q1. That is a serious bottleneck and it is one that is much more within Rivian's control than others. I know there are some shipping restraints but they could have moved the last 1,000 vehicles with pre-order holders within a few hours of Normal.

Rivian Production History, based on public releases

RIvian production history
Q3 2021: 12 EV’s produced, 11 delivered
Q4 2021. 1003 EV’s, 909 delivered
Q1 2022 production through March 8: 1410 (from Q4 2021 earnings release)
Q1 2022 through March 31: 2553 produced 1227 delivered (Rivian Press release 4.5.22)
Total production as of May 9th, 2022 ~ 5,000 (Q1 earnings release) .

Production from Mar 31 to May 9th is 1432 (5000-2553-1003-12) (my math)

Almost half (1143, 45%) of Q1 production was produced in the last 3 weeks of Q1. I think that explains partly why only half of Q1 production was delivered in Q1. (has been mentioned here before)

"Only" 1432 were produced in April and early May. A little slower than the pace at the end of March. 1432 / 1.3 months = ~ 1100/month rate from April 1 to May 9th. I'm not too surprised, but a little disappointed, would have guessed/hoped a bit higher.

 

[moosehead]

Morgan Stanley was not bashful asking pretty pointed questions about burn rate, what specific flexibility Rivian had to deal with further downside including unexpected force majeure, all within the context of the market changing considerably since the IPO (for the much worse). He also clearly stated that at current share price, enterprise value is essentially zero, and any further decline would dilute shareholders.

I got the impression MS wanted to see further scenario planning for potential belt tightening, slowing CAPX, and other downside contingencies.

 

[Guy]

Rivian Production History, based on public releases

RIvian production history
Q3 2021: 12 EV’s produced, 11 delivered
Q4 2021. 1003 EV’s, 909 delivered
Q1 2022 production through March 8: 1410 (from Q4 2021 earnings release)
Q1 2022 through March 31: 2553 produced 1227 delivered (Rivian Press release 4.5.22)
Total production as of May 9th, 2022 ~ 5,000 (Q1 earnings release) .

Production from Mar 31 to May 9th is 1432 (5000-2553-1003-12) (my math)

Almost half (1143, 45%) of Q1 production was produced in the last 3 weeks of Q1. I think that explains partly why only half of Q1 production was delivered in Q1. (has been mentioned here before)

"Only" 1432 were produced in April and early May. A little slower than the pace at the end of March. 1432 / 1.3 months = ~ 1100/month rate from April 1 to May 9th. I'm not too surprised, but a little disappointed, would have guessed/hoped a bit higher.

This is disappointing because the umber for Q2 includes EDV which was not really made I Q1 so it means R1 production is lower now than it was in March.

 

[Guy]

RJ just said around one third of the 1400 vehicles made this quarter so far are EDVs.

 

[Forager1]

On the call, RJ just said about 1/3 of production will be EDV. Either he’s rounding up from 60%, Amazon allowed a slight reduction from the contracted 10k delivery for this year, or there is a strong possibility that they can hit 30k production by end of year.

 

[Guy]

On the call, RJ just said about 1/3 of production will be EDV. Either he’s rounding up from 60%, Amazon allowed a slight reduction from the contracted 10k delivery for this year, or there is a strong possibility that they can hit 30k production by end of year.

I thought it was one third so far this quarter. We will see. Hopefully they split the figures out in future.

 

[DJG]

RJ just said around one third of the 1400 vehicles made this quarter so far are EDVs.

No, he said around 1/3rd of the 25k forecast is expected to be EDVs.

 

[DJG]

On the call, RJ just said about 1/3 of production will be EDV. Either he’s rounding up from 60%, Amazon allowed a slight reduction from the contracted 10k delivery for this year, or there is a strong possibility that they can hit 30k production by end of year.

I think that "contract" is highly amenable. He also said a lot of work/delay has been due to working with Amazon on custom designing attributes of the vehicles for their systems, so I think it's more of a soft target than a hard contractual obligation under the circumstances (including Amazon being the largest shareholder).

 

[Guy]

No, he said around 1/3rd of the 25k forecast is expected to be EDVs.

Ok so that does lend credence to exceeding 25k for the year. 1400 total vehicles made this quarter so far is low.

 

[DJG]

Ok so that does lend credence to exceeding 25k for the year. 1400 total vehicles made this quarter so far is low.

Who knows, 10 out of 25 could still be considered "around" a third.

 

[smiesguy]

A few things that caught my attention:

1. They delivered half the vehicles they produced in Q1. That is a serious bottleneck and it is one that is much more within Rivian's control than others. I know there are some shipping restraints but they could have moved the last 1,000 vehicles with pre-order holders within a few hours of Normal.

2. They claim they are making R1S deliveries. I have no doubt they can "prove" that in a court of law but in reality I still think that's BS "deliveries" of glorified test mules to employees.

3. The additional orders since price hike are encouraging.

4. Stock is now underpriced when you look at cash on hand and agreement with GA.

Additions:

5. Sounds like the new ordering system will ensure they can raise prices on reservation holders. Seems you pay for a spot in line and will pay the going rate at manufacturing. Won't impact me but Rivian should lower the reservation cost to $100 in this approach in fairness to new customers.

The biggest deal to me is still getting a real update on timing for R1S deliveries. It won't happen on the call but they better provide that information this month based on the letter from a few weeks ago.

Preach. Agree on all of your points.