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Diddy123

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Tesla was down 5%, and all EV manufacturers were down.
I'm talking after market. In addition to the 5%+ it was down in regular trading. RIVN dropped an additional 10 percent after the earnings details were released, because it was almost all bad news.
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GaryL

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Nothing focuses your production and communication teams like loosing market cap in 10 billion dollars chunks. You want to see better communication and a decent production ramp drop the stock price below the IPO offering price
 

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Already missing production targets. Not awesome.
Makes me wonder about the accuracy of delivery delivery windows they are about to distribute.

I would not be surprised if Rivian does not sell anymore R1S until January - maybe late January. The effort to get 2 sales out before the earnings calls is quite obviously about being able to state they delivered and not an indication they are actually ready to sell the R1S.
The fact that there are no test drives, reviews, …. of R1S is an indication you are correct. Now we need a real R1S owner to share their experience on the forum. Well, they really don’t have to be real. I take any kind of reviews.

Yikes. They just said they're reevaluating the pricing of their vehicles given the inflationary environment. The bad news keeps rolling in.
There will be a shortage of pitchforks if some people get lower price because they are closer to service centers and get earlier deliveries and earlier reservation holders pay more due to bad location. I am hoping this will impact only new reservations.

If they are still aiming for the 65k capacity at the end of 2022, then expect a slow roll for the ramp up.
That would mean around 6K for 2022 to get to 71K by end of 2023. That is really slow.

I'm curious why such a big difference between number produced and number delivered? Are the other 266 being delivered s00n??
It is either due to truck driver shortage for delivery or not enough flashlights for doors to complete the finishing touches.
 

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kurtlikevonnegut

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That would mean around 6K for 2022 to get to 71K by end of 2023. That is really slow.
That's not really how it works. By saying that they will be at full production by end of 2023, that likely means a ramped schedule throughout the year. So their production rate would be at max volume on a daily basis, but that may not happen until December. So they could make 30-40k vehicles in 2023 as they ramp to full production by EOY to where they would produce 65k vehicles in 2024.
 

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Makes me wonder about the accuracy of delivery delivery windows they are about to distribute.



The fact that there are no test drives, reviews, …. of R1S is an indication you are correct. Now we need a real R1S owner to share their experience on the forum. Well, they really don’t have to be real. I take any kind of reviews.



There will be a shortage of pitchforks if some people get lower price because they are closer to service centers and get earlier deliveries and earlier reservation holders pay more due to bad location. I am hoping this will impact only new reservations.



That would mean around 6K for 2022 to get to 71K by end of 2023. That is really slow.



It is either due to truck driver shortage for delivery or not enough flashlights for doors to complete the finishing touches.
I corrected myself in a subsequent reply, 2023.

"We expect to reach a vehicle production rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using 100% of the facility’s current installed capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles by late 2023"

Of which 65k is the R1 line. Also note that reaching capacity does not mean sustaining capacity.

With the latest release, like others, I expect somewhere around a 20k/50k split for 22/23.
 

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That's not really how it works. By saying that they will be at full production by end of 2023, that likely means a ramped schedule throughout the year. So their production rate would be at max volume on a daily basis, but that may not happen until December. So they could make 30-40k vehicles in 2023 as they ramp to full production by EOY to where they would produce 65k vehicles in 2024.
what you are saying makes perfect sense if 65K target is end of 23. I was responding to a comment stating 65K target is end of 22. In which case they would be producing at least 65K in 2023. I am not saying that is what will happen. I am saying that is the comment I was responding to.
 

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Find it hard to believe they'll even get 20k R1Ts delivered in 22'.... That's well over 1k/month and with a ramp we're looking at 2k/month, they're struggling with 200. Supply chain issues with manpower issues, I'm going to guess 10-14k R1Ts delivered in 2022, then by end of 23' they're gonna sink or swim as the ramp will be real or a lot of really upset 2-year reservation holders and market competition.... Tesla was able to upset everyone because they had such a superior product, don't think that'll be the case for them in 2 years.
 

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hed

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Find it hard to believe they'll even get 20k R1Ts delivered in 22'.... That's well over 1k/month and with a ramp we're looking at 2k/month, they're struggling with 200. Supply chain issues with manpower issues, I'm going to guess 10-14k R1Ts delivered in 2022, then by end of 23' they're gonna sink or swim as the ramp will be real or a lot of really upset 2-year reservation holders and market competition.... Tesla was able to upset everyone because they had such a superior product, don't think that'll be the case for them in 2 years.
I agree. I just do not see Rivian breaking 15k in 2022. If I let my cynicism have it say my guess would be between 6k-12k that get produced and actually make it into customer hands.
 

intimidator

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Find it hard to believe they'll even get 20k R1Ts delivered in 22'.... That's well over 1k/month and with a ramp we're looking at 2k/month, they're struggling with 200. Supply chain issues with manpower issues, I'm going to guess 10-14k R1Ts delivered in 2022, then by end of 23' they're gonna sink or swim as the ramp will be real or a lot of really upset 2-year reservation holders and market competition.... Tesla was able to upset everyone because they had such a superior product, don't think that'll be the case for them in 2 years.
The slow ramp is pretty frustrating. I know it is hard (see Elon's comments), but if they only deliver 20,000 R1Ts in 2022 that ain't going to look good. They bought the factory back in 2017 I believe. They should have had a better plan to ramp once production started. Sigh.
 

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The slow ramp is pretty frustrating. I know it is hard (see Elon's comments), but if they only deliver 20,000 R1Ts in 2022 that ain't going to look good. They bought the factory back in 2017 I believe. They should have had a better plan to ramp once production started. Sigh.
Yeah the "supply chain issues" is being used way too liberally, we've been having these issues since the start of Covid, going on 2 years.

How come not one single person here genuinely believed they were going to deliver an R1T in July yet their guidance was late to the game... How are we able to see the writing on the wall and they aren't? Wait they do they're just overly optimistic to portray more hope than not.

Miss 1 deadline fine, miss the 2nd and you have a bit of incompetence to deal with and everyone here sees it. Clearly the engineers of their truck far exceed their companies abilities to deliver them.
 
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Eticket99

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They were intentionally vague/absent on production ramp guidance because if they give guidance that's overly optimistic they can and would be sued by investors, and if they said the truth the shine would start to come off their IPO and truck of the year headwinds.
 

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They were intentionally vague/absent on production ramp guidance because if they give guidance that's overly optimistic they can and would be sued by investors, and if they said the truth the shine would start to come off their IPO and truck of the year headwinds.
If they just state the truth the investor community will be fine.
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