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2 new analyst notes on RIVN. Both BUY

jjswan33

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DuoRivians

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BofA analyst makes his price recommendation, even while anticipating Rivian will raise $5B in 2024 and 2025.

Both are good calls, imo.
 

zipzag

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My buy signal would be spare tire availability. Until Rivian can sell a spare or replace a defective mobil charger there are no indications of improved parts available to accelerate production.

SP will move up on better than expected news. I can think of any possible good news expect quarterly production at a rate to beat their 50K forecast. Preorders could be piling up but there is no way for the market to have that information. Demand that can't be met is only relevant if Rivian chooses to raise prices.

Tesla is a great stock to trade because both sides mostly get it wrong. Rivian is much simpler in that the share price at this point is probably almost entirely based on the production ramp.

In the EV segment both Tesla and Ford are signaling a softness in demand. I think we are at end of the only EV demand spike this decade.
 

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jjswan33

jjswan33

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My buy signal would be spare tire availability. Until Rivian can sell a spare or replace a defective mobil charger there are no indications of improved parts available to accelerate production.

SP will move up on better than expected news. I can think of any possible good news expect quarterly production at a rate to beat their 50K forecast. Preorders could be piling up but there is no way for the market to have that information. Demand that can't be met is only relevant if Rivian chooses to raise prices.

Tesla is a great stock to trade because both sides mostly get it wrong. Rivian is much simpler in that the share price at this point is probably almost entirely based on the production ramp.

In the EV segment both Tesla and Ford are signaling a softness in demand. I think we are at end of the only EV demand spike this decade.
I agree that the stock is unlikely to move significantly in the short term, too much negative sentiment but at least short interest has been steadily declining.

I disagree that production ramp is the most important thing though. Even if they make 100k vehicles this year if these sell every one at a loss that doesn't help them. That is the main reason I wasn't super negative on their quarterly results as they guided to how and when they can get to positive gross margins on their products. If they can execute to that plan then Rivian will be in good shape but that is to be determined.

Time will tell about demand but I don't think that weakening demand at Tesla or Lucid necessarily means that Rivian has a demand problem, I am sure it is softer but I highly doubt they will have any trouble selling any vehicle they make through 2024 at least.
 

DuoRivians

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I said it before, but without any near term catalysts, one thing that can change attitude is if RJ bought the stock
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