180 R1T produced / 156 R1T delivered as of Oct 31 -- per Updated Rivian S1 [11/1]

[SeaGeo]

My (completely unsubstantiated) guess is that they may be show room/display cars. I seem to recall that the Belltown showroom was cancelled or the permit was pulled or something, so maybe they’re just consolidating everything to one location(?)

Seems a bit cramped for that, but maybe. ?‍

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[Shzeph]

Like I said, completely unsubstantiated haha. Either way, it’s cool to be able to see them! Even if it is from afar

 

[mikeB]

While a priority it reads like the EDV is on a thorough slow roll as well.

In the commercial market, we will launch the Rivian Commercial Vehicle (“RCV”) platform with our first vehicle, the Electric Delivery Van (“EDV”), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon, our first commercial customer. Amazon has ordered, subject to modification as described in the section titled “Certain Relationships and Related Party Transactions,” an initial volume of 100,000 vehicles globally, representing the largest order of EVs ever. By the end of 2021, we intend to produce and deliver approximately 10 EDVs.

 

[BigE]

Bahaha to be fair I'm pretty sure we only know of like... 5 October delivery promises. Though if what forum members are saying is true, it sucks to be told a date and to miss it without proactive communication. Frankly, it smells a little fishy to me, but I'm not pointing fingers! ?

Selling privately isn't that scary to me. You just have to be patient and trust your Spidey Sense.

Hi Cater! I placed my deposit back on Dec. 12, 2018 (Max Pack) so I am very hopeful you get your R1T in November. My question is, how in the world is Rivian not able to give you a delivery date at this point? It's November 2nd. I would think as most manufacturers, your order goes into a queue with multiple steps in the order, generally: Order placed/Order confirmed/In production/Built/Shipped/Delivered. For most manufacturers, this is an 8-12 week window in normal circumstances. As we now just say 3 weeks from your delivery, I would think the latest your R1 would go into production would be Nov. 15th to have it by the end of the month?

 

[wizard467]

Hi Cater! I placed my deposit back on Dec. 12, 2018 (Max Pack) so I am very hopeful you get your R1T in November. My question is, how in the world is Rivian not able to give you a delivery date at this point? It's November 2nd. I would think as most manufacturers, your order goes into a queue with multiple steps in the order, generally: Order placed/Order confirmed/In production/Built/Shipped/Delivered. For most manufacturers, this is an 8-12 week window in normal circumstances. As we now just say 3 weeks from your delivery, I would think the latest your R1 would go into production would be Nov. 15th to have it by the end of the month?

They don’t know because it is a ramp up of the production line. For most products this time is hidden from us. In this case Rivian had to show a product years ago to get funding, interest, etc. to be able build that product. This means the time from design to actually delivery is visible. For their production line to work out issues there have definitely been days in Sept. and Oct. where they stopped making trucks for a few days in a row. That is why they averaged only a few per day during that timeframe.

As of the end of October they are up to 14 per day on average (per S1 amendment 2), but they want to be at hundreds per day. To achieve this they still might have to stop the line and adjust some part of the process. The time the line is down to the fix for the process is not a specific amount of time, it just depends on the issue.

Finally the supply chain for all industries is still slow so there could be a single part that is delayed and causes the line to stop. Again this delay is an unknown amount of time.

From the amended S1 we know they are able to build at least 14 per day which is a vast improvement over 1-2 per day in September. The ramp up will continue to improve.

 

[Max]

Stupid auto correct, should have been "gut".
Simple economics though. If it didn't cost anything (i.e. $0) pre order, there would be more vs it being $100 vs $1,000 vs $10,000. People that can afford the higher deposit are probably better off financially and more likely convert (and probably not just holding a spot because they have an aspiration and they can).

Although I question guys very often, I seldom argue with gut. Let’s take another stab at this anyway; I agree with assumption that more of Rivian reservation holders are probably financially better off folks not because reservation requirement is higher but because vehicle minimum price is higher than Ford and Tesla. However I wonder if that does translate into how serious reservation holders are. Since you are into simple economics, let me put it this way: Let’s say an old dude’s net worth is $40 million which made a $1000 reservation in 2018 comparing with a new college graduate that got a $60K job and live with his parents making the same deposit at the same time. The aspirational kid has to be more serious to make that deposit because relatively speaking both the $1000 and $70K does more damage to him. On the other hand the old dude can get tired of waiting at any point and pick up a Tycan cash while keeping the reservation just in case. If the young dude decides Rivian is not a wise financial move, he is more likely to cancel and get his money back because he need that $1000 more. So higher density of rich reservation holders may translate to more people that are less serious. Of course there are other factors that can make people less serious like uncertainties of owning a car from a new company vs more established ones. Of course all of this is just a thought exercise and gut to gut speaking and is not based on any studies. We will know sOOn which theory is more valid.

 

[Aroohoo]

Although I question guys very often, I seldom argue with gut. Let’s take another stab at this anyway; I agree with assumption that more of Rivian reservation holders are probably financially better off folks not because reservation requirement is higher but because vehicle minimum price is higher than Ford and Tesla. However I wonder if that does translate into how serious reservation holders are. Since you are into simple economics, let me put it this way: Let’s compare an old dude’s net worth is $40 million and make a $1000 reservation in 2018 vs a new college graduate that got a $60K job and live with his parents making the same deposit at the same time. The aspirational kid has to be more serious to make that deposit because relatively speaking both the $1000 and $70K does more damage to him. On the other hand the old dude can get tired of waiting at any point and pick up a Tycan cash while keeping the reservation just in case. If the young dude decides Rivian is not a wise financial move, he is more likely to cancel and get his money back because he need that $1000 more. So higher density of rich reservation holders may translate to more people that are less serious. Of course there are other factors that can make people less serious like uncertainties of owning a car from a new company vs more established ones. Of course all of this is just a thought exercise and gut to gut speaking and is not based on any studies. We will know sOOn which theory is more valid.

So... We are both arguing that the conversion rate will be pretty decent, but for slightly different reasons. In the end, we will never know which theory was valid or how much it actually contributed. As you've stated, the real answer is probably a multitude of factors. We won't know why the conversion rate is what it is, just what it ends up being (assuming that data is even released).

Either way, I thank you for the engaging conversation. It is rare to have a thought provoking exchange on an internet forum.

 

[eggpaul]

I'm just chiming to say, "Wow, I'm apparently going to be one of the first ~thousand Rivian owners?"

Wow. I'm apparently going to be one of the first ~thousand Rivian owners?

That is both so exciting and horrifying haha my Guide continues to swear my truck is coming by end of November. I keep saying I'm nervous trying to sell my 4Runner privately before then (trade ins suck cash). Either it's going to be a mad dash to the finish line or there's going to be a delay and I'll be truck-less. I'm not sure when I expect an exact delivery date, but I do know that my charger doesn't even have a date. It's not a deal breaker to not have a wall charger for a little while, but, "EEEEEEK," is all I can think. I'm pretty sure it's mostly excitement haha

Test drive this Saturday. Maybe I can get some more details there.

Anyone else in my boat with an EoNovember timeline?

It would be great if you get your truck in a few weeks, but since they are building only 1000 more until Dec 31, wouldn't it mean there are only a few hundred employee orders? Since they are getting deliveries first, it would mean those would be completed pretty quickly. A few hundred seems low for employee orders but who knows.

 

[BigE]

They don’t know because it is a ramp up of the production line. For most products this time is hidden from us. In this case Rivian had to show a product years ago to get funding, interest, etc. to be able build that product. This means the time from design to actually delivery is visible. For their production line to work out issues there have definitely been days in Sept. and Oct. where they stopped making trucks for a few days in a row. That is why they averaged only a few per day during that timeframe.

As of the end of October they are up to 14 per day on average (per S1 amendment 2), but they want to be at hundreds per day. To achieve this they still might have to stop the line and adjust some part of the process. The time the line is down to the fix for the process is not a specific amount of time, it just depends on the issue.

Finally the supply chain for all industries is still slow so there could be a single part that is delayed and causes the line to stop. Again this delay is an unknown amount of time.

From the amended S1 we know they are able to build at least 14 per day which is a vast improvement over 1-2 per day in September. The ramp up will continue to improve.

Totally understand past history as I've followed Rivian for 3 years now. Cater is literally days away from his truck being built and yet Rivian has no idea on what date its production will begin or say a 1-week timeline of delivery? And this is Underpromising and Overdilvering per RJ?

 

[yizzung]

A few thoughts

• An alternative headline of this post could have been, "Rivian production rate increases 589%, from 14 cars per week to 96 per week, in just the last 9 days"
• If factory capacity is 150K vehicles, they were at ~0.5% capacity and now are at just ~3.3% capacity
• If they don't improve the rate of production -- highly unlikely, given how quickly it's ramped this month -- they'd end the year at only about 1,000 vehicles, depending on holiday downtime and whatnot
• They suggested to IBD that they hope to hit 10X that volume (10,000 vehicles) by end of year -- that would require (on average) a 40% weekly increase in production rate from now until the end of the year
• It won't increase like that, in an even straight line, but more likely will go up hundreds of % in the weeks ahead and start tapering off because of, well, physics

 

[yizzung]

They don’t know because it is a ramp up of the production line. For most products this time is hidden from us. In this case Rivian had to show a product years ago to get funding, interest, etc. to be able build that product. This means the time from design to actually delivery is visible. For their production line to work out issues there have definitely been days in Sept. and Oct. where they stopped making trucks for a few days in a row. That is why they averaged only a few per day during that timeframe.

As of the end of October they are up to 14 per day on average (per S1 amendment 2), but they want to be at hundreds per day. To achieve this they still might have to stop the line and adjust some part of the process. The time the line is down to the fix for the process is not a specific amount of time, it just depends on the issue.

Finally the supply chain for all industries is still slow so there could be a single part that is delayed and causes the line to stop. Again this delay is an unknown amount of time.

From the amended S1 we know they are able to build at least 14 per day which is a vast improvement over 1-2 per day in September. The ramp up will continue to improve.

Worth noting that the value chain doesn’t end at the factory door. Rivian has to do all the distribution from the factory to the local delivery point and have the logistics in place to service the vehicle in that area into perpetuity. This isn’t just putting a widget in a box and handing it to FedEx.

 

[dfx]

It will be important for Rivian after the IPO to show improving production volumes. It's a whole new ball game with the investing public seeking information on the company's progress. If their production volumes disappoint then the street will not be kind to the company and share price. Regardless of their empty statements to the reservation holders about under-promising and over-delivering, if the are a well run company then they will definitely over-deliver relative to the preliminary prospectus going forward.

 

[Max]

Worth noting that the value chain doesn’t end at the factory door. Rivian has to do all the distribution from the factory to the local delivery point and have the logistics in place to service the vehicle in that area into perpetuity. This isn’t just putting a widget in a box and handing it to FedEx.

I asked CS is it safe to assume I won’t have a delivery before there is a service center in my state? He said no deliveries can happen before then. I am not sure he made it up or they depend mainly on mobile service traveling long distance at first.

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

I asked CS is it safe to assume I won’t have a delivery before there is a service center in my state? He said no deliveries can happen before then. I am not sure he made it up or they depend mainly on mobile service traveling long distance at first.

CS has told me the opposite. It's frustrating we can't get a consistent answer to this question.

 

[Max]

CS has told me the opposite. It's frustrating we can't get a consistent answer to this question.

It seems the only way to know is waiting for real deliveries and see if any of them are in low priority states. Or see if any of the Rivian employees receiving their trucks are working remotely (Really remote).

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