Sponsored

thedole

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 18, 2021
Threads
3
Messages
81
Reaction score
124
Location
Portlandia
Vehicles
R1T LE
Occupation
Brewmeister
One more interesting thing, page 170 states " all U.S.-based full-time employees were or are expected to be invited to participate, we provide the employees, including our NEOs, an opportunity to purchase early production R1T Launch Edition and R1S Launch Edition vehicles and pay a cash subsidy for those who participate"

This group is currently a large number and growing daily. As stated all existing and new employees are likely given the opportunity to jump right to the top of the line for an R1 LE vehicle. I think I need to apply for a job!
Sponsored

 

Diddy123

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 27, 2021
Threads
19
Messages
612
Reaction score
2,459
Location
Montana
Vehicles
Acura MDX
All orders prior to September 31st, 2021 are expected to be filled in 2022.
Unless you think Rivian is now engaging in securities fraud by lying on their S1 filings
That’s exactly what you claimed SiriusXM was doing a couple of months ago. Hmm…
 

hed

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2021
Threads
12
Messages
183
Reaction score
489
Location
SE
Vehicles
Tesla M3P, Raptor, Rivian Reservation 13##
"I'm comfortable thinking that they will have the production line capable of running more than 25K in 2022. I'm just not sure about supply chain and labor constraints."

My assumption is all inclusive of any and all reasons Rivian would not be able to meet their stated goals. Be it supply chain or labor constraints.

I just think they are content letting the "coming soon" narrative live on even in the face of knowing the reality is most likely way further out. They are self aware, IPO is priority for whatever the reasons may be.
 

DB-EV

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2021
Threads
25
Messages
594
Reaction score
497
Location
NY
Vehicles
Rivian R1s
And it's end of 2023 barring further delays. I was cautiously optimistic that I'd be able to purchase by the end of next year. I don't know what my preorder number is but it's probably close to 40k. Now I'm looking at summer of 2023 at the earliest. I probably won't wait that long. Good news is that me dropping out will push someone else closer to the front of the line. I'll hold onto my preorder for now but the longer it takes to get an R1T, more likely I am to hold out for my CT or Lightning order. Add on top the new MSRP limits to the tax credit and this week has put quite the damper on my enthusiasm.
I get it. When did you preorder?
 

SANZC02

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bob
Joined
Feb 11, 2021
Threads
29
Messages
5,258
Reaction score
8,859
Location
California
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, LE - R1S
Occupation
Retired
Where did you pull this number from?
I think they have the number backwards. I think that is more likely the drop out rate not the acceptance rate. There is no way 95% of the people with a 1k deposit on a vehicle are dropping out.
 

Sponsored

Whmorken

Well-Known Member
First Name
Hubert
Joined
Mar 4, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
411
Reaction score
367
Location
Jackson, WY
Vehicles
Tesla X. Toyota Land Cruiser.
Occupation
Retired
Clubs
 
Yikes. End of 2023 for all the "preorder backlog"? That's way further out then they communicated before. Didn't they previously state all preorders would be done by next year? And I think it was summer of 2022?

Well this is disheartening. To finish with 1200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss by end of this year, they will need to produce ~16 per day which is 3 times what they've produced in a day so far (4-5). If we take the next two years (2022 and 2023), they need to produce 76 per day to hit 55,400 by end of 2023. Obviously there will be some ramp up curve so its not a static 76 per day and that total number could be lower with folks backing out so best case is sooner than end of 2023 but more likely probably past 2023 based on Rivians previous record of estimation.

Guess Elon was right: prototypes are easy, mass production is hard.

The other factor are the commercial vans. Since they have a commitment/contract for delivering those vehicles and I believe its 10,000 by end of 2022. So just next year they need to produce 27 of those per day to make that number. For sure a reason the R1T/S preorders are going to be delayed to 2023.
No R1S LE for Xmas...but that was expected...looks like there is a good chance I have it for my birthday end of March. I think 95%+ of all LE orders will be delivered in Q1 and early Q2 next year, but there will be reservations in places without the infrastructure to support vehicle services that will have to wait. They are running a business and should focus their sales and service on areas that will have high EV concentrations. Those living in remote locations sadly will get the short end of the stick and that's why the language is what it is.
Some people will not go through with their orders (a lower percentage of the active people on this forum) and others may drop out should the EV tax credit no longer apply or they'll push their orders from a LE to an Explorer package to get it. If they make 1,200 R1Ts in Q4 then it should be double or triple that between R1T and R1S LEs in Q1 and I would assume that's most of the LEs that end up in people's driveways as they won't replace canceled orders with other orders.
Once the IPO is done I am sure we will hear a lot more details.
A lot more details? Quarterly after IPO?
 

Sacagawea

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2021
Threads
1
Messages
55
Reaction score
54
Location
Santa Fe, NM
Vehicles
Mini Cooper, Harley
I for one resent being considered “third-party”. Since we have a direct relationship with Rivian (gave them preorder $$$), we are entitled to at least second-party classification.
Actually, feeling a bit more "second-class" rather than second-party classification.
 

Whmorken

Well-Known Member
First Name
Hubert
Joined
Mar 4, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
411
Reaction score
367
Location
Jackson, WY
Vehicles
Tesla X. Toyota Land Cruiser.
Occupation
Retired
Clubs
 
This is extremely on point. It's too early to call it at this phase how the production ramp story is going to go for them.

I think the next milestone we should really look out for is Rivian's Q1 2022 results. They'll be a public company by then so we'll have quarterly earnings calls and reports that spill all the beans. We'll see how far on from that 1,000 number they are by March 31st 2022.
Right on. Information drought ends.
 

Whmorken

Well-Known Member
First Name
Hubert
Joined
Mar 4, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
411
Reaction score
367
Location
Jackson, WY
Vehicles
Tesla X. Toyota Land Cruiser.
Occupation
Retired
Clubs
 
Everyone on this thread needs to keep in mind that this information is from public market filings and not from marketing communications. They can be held liable if they are found to make misleading statements which is why they are simply taking current production and multiplying it outwards.

While I'm grateful for the improved transparency, it's a shame that it's forced via filing rather than just coming directly from the company. That said, we also need to realize that we are (and have been) in the pre-IPO quiet period, so they really can't say too much right now. Post IPO I expect a flood of information... right??
YES!!
 

Whmorken

Well-Known Member
First Name
Hubert
Joined
Mar 4, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
411
Reaction score
367
Location
Jackson, WY
Vehicles
Tesla X. Toyota Land Cruiser.
Occupation
Retired
Clubs
 
I agree that there will be people dropping their orders, but I can't see it being only 5% to 30% fullfillment rate. Based on Tesla fullfillment rates, and the size of the Rivian deposit ($1000 deposits are more serious and thought out than $50 - $100 deposits), I think the fullfillment rate will be at least 55%, if not 65% - 70%.
We have a potentially volatile market, and a sudden drop could hurt Rivian orders. Real uncertainty simmers beneath the surface of the apparent calm just when production ramp-up presses on as it must. Go Rivian.
 

Sponsored

Mcfly Rivian

Well-Known Member
First Name
Billy
Joined
Jul 9, 2021
Threads
24
Messages
376
Reaction score
500
Location
Socal
Vehicles
Rivian R1T
Occupation
Realtor
I've quoted the bronco conversion rate which was around 70% reservation to actual order. And that is one popular ass vehicle. Ask me how I know, year plus wait so far for my wife's bandlands trim. I think it will be similar for the rivian. It's a higher priced deposit and after people see it and drive it they are going to want it. Another thing that will come into play is your trim and location for delivery timing.

I still think they will deliver most pre orders by end of 22 as previously stated. You have to remember the recent ev company's that have been sued after spac filings for claims made. Ie canoo, lordstown, Nikola. They are being very careful with statements for a reason.
 

Whmorken

Well-Known Member
First Name
Hubert
Joined
Mar 4, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
411
Reaction score
367
Location
Jackson, WY
Vehicles
Tesla X. Toyota Land Cruiser.
Occupation
Retired
Clubs
 
Wanna bet?

Let's ignore for a second that "by the end of 2023" could mean January 3rd, 2023.

Tesla only produced 1700 Model 3s in 2017. When this article was written, the Model 3 production ramp was around 20/week, below where the R1T is today. And at that point Tesla was a comparatively mature manufacturer with a decade of sales behind them. It took them a full year to get to 53k deliveries (Q3 2018).

Last quarter, Tesla delivered a quarter million Model 3/Ys (incidentally, the "early 2020s" target that Seeking Alpha forecasted in the link above, which was an extremely contrary, optimistic view at the time). If you'd bought Tesla stock in 2017, you'd be a happy camper right now.

Rivian's forecasted ramp is not a whole hell of a lot slower than that, especially since it includes launching launching two other vehicles and they are brand new to this. Oh yeah, and they're launching in the middle of an unprecedented supply chain crisis and a global pandemic. I'd say the numbers are pretty good.

Investing is still risky, and we'll see what they can pull off, but "they will not survive and their stock won't hold if it takes them two years" is laughable.
I expect if the general economy holds steady, a somewhat slower than anticipated increase in production will be irrelevant to the future of Rivian.
 

PastyPilgrim

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 9, 2021
Threads
12
Messages
406
Reaction score
934
Location
New England
Vehicles
R1T
A refundable deposit of $1,000 is nothing. How many of those preorders are people with Teslas that just wanted to be on the list? How many will be scared away by the tax rebate talk? How many will say "how do I get this thing fixed if something goes wrong?"?
Delays would also be a pretty big factor too, though perhaps not as much as they'd be in a climate where other vehicles were more available. But a lot of preorders were before the lightning, hummer, etc. were known, and there are probably more EV trucks in the works that will be shown before Rivian fulfills someone's preorder.
 

flabyboy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
3
Messages
341
Reaction score
500
Location
Minnesota
Vehicles
Mazda 6
Occupation
Health Care
And it's end of 2023 barring further delays. I was cautiously optimistic that I'd be able to purchase by the end of next year. I don't know what my preorder number is but it's probably close to 40k. Now I'm looking at summer of 2023 at the earliest. I probably won't wait that long. Good news is that me dropping out will push someone else closer to the front of the line. I'll hold onto my preorder for now but the longer it takes to get an R1T, more likely I am to hold out for my CT or Lightning order. Add on top the new MSRP limits to the tax credit and this week has put quite the damper on my enthusiasm.
Sooo many options could pop up in two years
 
 




Top