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St Bernard

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I am not an expert. But I believe the quiet-period extends 40 days *after* the stock starts publicly trading. So if they go public on Tues/Wed next week (Nov 9/10). Quiet period would extend until basically Christmas. :crying:
The quiet period started 6-12 months ago!
 

sacramentoelectric

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End of 2023. That could be tough to stomach. Glad the deposit is refundable.
And it's end of 2023 barring further delays. I was cautiously optimistic that I'd be able to purchase by the end of next year. I don't know what my preorder number is but it's probably close to 40k. Now I'm looking at summer of 2023 at the earliest. I probably won't wait that long. Good news is that me dropping out will push someone else closer to the front of the line. I'll hold onto my preorder for now but the longer it takes to get an R1T, more likely I am to hold out for my CT or Lightning order. Add on top the new MSRP limits to the tax credit and this week has put quite the damper on my enthusiasm.
 

DucRider

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If your need is for a truck then you will probably need to go for an ICE truck.
If you believe this, then you believe Rivian is lying on their S1
And it's end of 2023 barring further delays.
People are somehow reading into the S1 that vehicle number 55,000 will be delivered at the very end of 2023.
All the recent update means is that they cannot produce 55K by the end of 2022, some will spill into 2023.
Pretty easy to see at least a few on this forum that will be in a short position and increasing their FUD production rate in the next few weeks.
 

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atlastracer

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The quiet period started 6-12 months ago!
Rivian's self-imposed one - yes :D

Although that might be not far from the truth. It's even possible they were planning to go public earlier and were in self-imposed "quiet" period as a result - but the filing was delayed and then had to be quiet for real once it was submitted.

I can't imagine RJ wants to be so quiet about these deliveries happening right now. He's probably encouraged the employees who have received their trucks to post (carefully) on social media but not openly admit they are employees (see dodging of questions by commenters on those posts). That way it shows they are getting them out there, but does not violate any SEC rules in the process.
 

LaunchGreen

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I am not an expert. But I believe the quiet-period extends 40 days *after* the stock starts publicly trading. So if they go public on Tues/Wed next week (Nov 9/10). Quiet period would extend until basically Christmas. :crying:

Ah yes, you are correct. From filing date through 40 days after listing. Joy :(
 

Dark-Fx

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Guess Elon was right: prototypes are easy, mass production is hard.
The rate of increase is pretty typical. Cars are complex. The projects I've been on tend to suddenly be at continuous production levels once you've worked out 99% of the bugs. Then your production rates depend on all of the Just-in-Time manufacturing from third parties. It almost feels wrong to suddenly have close to zero issues after spending months getting everything going. "What did we miss"
 

atlastracer

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Ah yes, you are correct. From filing date through 40 days after listing. Joy :(
I wish I wasn't. But every time I search up this quiet-period. The "post-IPO" 40 day thing comes up and it makes me sad we won't see an info dump right after the public trading starts. I'll just have to wait for Doug to finish his R1T review video in the meantime...
 

PastyPilgrim

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The quiet period started 6-12 months ago!
"That's my secret, I'm always quiet"

Are they IPO'ing now because they legitimately need to raise capital right this instant? IPO'ing during perhaps the most important moment for your company's success would seem... ill advised. I thought it was sketchy that Lucid IPO'd before selling a vehicle, but seeing Rivian do it in parallel with selling their first vehicle(s) makes me think that Lucid might've had the right idea.
 

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EVTrucking

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If you believe this, then you believe Rivian is lying on their S1

People are somehow reading into the S1 that vehicle number 55,000 will be delivered at the very end of 2023.
All the recent update means is that they cannot produce 55K by the end of 2022, some will spill into 2023.
Pretty easy to see at least a few on this forum that will be in a short position and increasing their FUD production rate in the next few weeks.
I do not believe Rivian is lying on their S-1. I simply do not have any confidence that Rivian can meet the goals as outlined in the current S-1 filing. My belief is that the goals they provided for the S-1 are realistically optimistic.

IMO when estimating one's delivery date the larger picture has to be taken into account. ALL OEMs are experiencing supply issues with no end in sight. Also, with so many EVs headed to market at roughly the same time I cannot help but think that there will be a battery shortage.

Rivian is juggling a lot of things all at once and dedicated themselves to doing each thing with excellence (done right it takes time). They also have a huge amount of infrastructure to still build and man.

For LATE reservations/pre-orderers I think Rivian is still the best bet for getting an EV truck by the end of 2023.
 

Max

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That's a pretty big jump in preorders since the first filing.
Do you mind sharing when was the first filing at what was the number? I reserved in August and it looks like I will fall in 2023. I am trying to guess what part of 23. It looks like Lightning may get me first.
 

Richland Scott

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As a June 2019 R1S LE pre-order holder, in my estimation, the biggest problem with all of this is that we are getting information from SEC filings and not via an email from Rivian. They had time to make sure I received multiple emails about how to access the IPO but they didn't have time to send pre-order holders an update on production? The marketing/communication shop is abysmal.

In my line of work I have to manage other people's expectations every day. If I failed to communicate like Rivian, or worse, If I was consistently wrong about what I was communicating, I wouldn't have clients. I have to believe that there is a reason, other than that they just suck, that the marketing/communication shop is so awful, but I'll be damned if I can figure it out.

To those on here who will tell me to just cancel my order if I don't believe that Rivian is perfect, I won't. I will keep my order, I will invest in the IPO, and I will continue to call out the horrible communication until they fix it.
 
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sacramentoelectric

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If you believe this, then you believe Rivian is lying on their S1

People are somehow reading into the S1 that vehicle number 55,000 will be delivered at the very end of 2023.
All the recent update means is that they cannot produce 55K by the end of 2022, some will spill into 2023.
Pretty easy to see at least a few on this forum that will be in a short position and increasing their FUD production rate in the next few weeks.
People are reading that because that's exactly what they said. Not early 2023 or Q1 2023 but, "by the end of 2023." They could have easily been more specific but they weren't because they aren't confident enough to put a tighter deadline on it. Could they finish early? Sure but remember, this is about justifying their IPO valuation. They are going to put the best light on things they legally can. They have every financial incentive to be as optimistic as reasonably possible. If they are saying, "by the end of 2023," there's no reason to doubt them.
 

Aroohoo

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Do you mind sharing when was the first filing at what was the number? I reserved in August and it looks like I will fall in 2023. I am trying to guess what part of 23. It looks like Lightning may get me first.
It was just under 50k, 48k and change I think...too lazy to look it up.

Also, there is an issue of conversion rate...how many of those pre orders will actually convert to sales. I've seen some people say that 30% loss would be expected given other similar launches.
I have nothing to base it on, but given that the pre order fee is an order of magnitude more than what those other launches had required, my guy says that the Rivian pre order holders are more committed and that the conversion rate would be higher.

In other words, don't hold your breath, but be happy if/when you order goes through earlier than expected.
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