They won't. There is just no way they make 50K personal vehicles in the next 2 years. Just won't happen. Maybe not half that.The S-1 amendment 3 states that they should have all preorder backlog complted by the end of 2023.
One of the earlier statements was end of 2022.
The reality of lessons learned. Rivian is essentially only producing handmade prototypes at the moment and that's without making any R1S units. They'll need to average 1000 units a week for 2 years to get preorders out by end of 2023. It's kind of silly to think that's remotely possible.Where are you getting those 'expectation' dates from?!
do we have another peashooter here?The reality of lessons learned. Rivian is essentially only producing handmade prototypes at the moment and that's without making any R1S units. They'll need to average 1000 units a week for 2 years to get preorders out by end of 2023. It's kind of silly to think that's remotely possible.
Math is hard. Especially when you're dealing with difficult numbers like 1000 per week.So as of Oct 31st, they would need to deliver 54400 vehicles in 2022 and 2023 to work through their backlog. Averaging 1000 units a week would be 49600 vehicles a year. Why would they need to produce 99200 vehicles to deliver 54400 preorders?
as you could probably tell, I had the S-1 open already and at that section.Math is hard. Especially when you're dealing with difficult numbers like 1000 per week.
I'm not going to dig it up, but wasn't there also something in the S-1 that said they should be at full production capacity in Normal (65K R1) by a certain date. Was it end of 2023?
Yeah, I'm not mad about the delays themselves, those happen with any major new product launch and with the pandemic it was more than expected. I placed my order over 2 years ago and while I think it's still impressive what they're doing/have done, the novelty has long since worn off and now I look at it as just a vehicle like you said.It’s interesting you say that. Our trip to Sedona renewed some of my enthusiasm for my R1S preorder (some amazing off-roading opportunities out there that my XC90 can’t handle nearly as well), but I too have lost lots of interest. That said, I can’t help but think about the hedonic treadmill and Eddie Murphy’s Saltine Cracker routine…at the end of the day it’s just a vehicle and most of us will eventually want the next shiny one…
NSFW video below…
No. only launch edition customers have been contacted. Non-LE Orders from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 are all waiting to be contacted so it will probably be a few years until you hear anything.Have any 2021 preorder holder been notified or are we not there yet? I'm a sept 2021 and have not seena thing. I'm not surprised, just curious.
Makes sense. I think a lot of people are tired of waiting and staring at the same images of the truck for 3-4 years. And I look forward to more of them getting out of the way so I can get my truck soonerI guess good things come to those who wait and for many of the pre-order holders who are still excited to get these vehicles I'm sure they will be pleased overall. I'm just no longer one of those people.