📊 2022 Q4 and Full-Year Earnings Results & Shareholder Letter: 50K production goal for 2023, ~400 Mile Range for Max Pack

[kurtlikevonnegut]

The reselling game is over. After taxes it's a wash now. While I think some are reselling, most are keeping for at least a year or two.

I think the other reality is $14k per unit is just a rounding error in their finances. Sure they toss up a few million, but they're focus is on ramp and expansion.

They had about 90k preorders at the time and the rough average cost increase was about $12,000 so it comes to about a billion total assuming 100% conversion. Anecdotally, conversion probably would have been significantly reduced so it's likely a lot less than that.

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[NineElectrics]

I understand how unpopular it was, but to price lock themselves back to 2018 was a titanic financial mistake that is going to cause ongoing pain for some time.

This is why you can no longer order a specific car; you can only visualize without prices or place a generic order with deposit. Otherwise it’s over-the-too advertising bait and switch, like what happened with the quad motor max pack model. Even with the visualizer and no prices, it’s still advertising with the potential to be baited and switched, so hopefully everything there is a real product this time.

 

[Biturbowned]

If stock prices continue to be depressed, I’ll keep buying. Long term I have confidence. Not financial advice.

 

[Riv_Ian]

I just bought a few more shares.

 

[Calvin2518]

Bingo. People quickly forget how long it took Tesla.

And Tesla (as far as I know) didn't START producing vehicles during a pandemic and unheard of global supply chain constraints. Rivian will only get better from here.

 

[Guy]

Today is the anniversary of the pricing debacle which overshadowed the Enduro drive. Yesterday the low production estimates overshadowed further enduro drive news. Bad communication.

 

[mkg3]

Just got around to listening the earnings call. Was busy yesterday during live.

I gotta say, it's one of the worst call I've listened to in a long time. It's D+ at best. I listen to lots of earnings call for stocks I own so I have pretty good base to compare the call against other companies.

Both RJ and Clare really didn't answer most questions directly and left lot of doubt in their responses. The unfortunate thing about doing so is that people will read between the lines and fill the ambiguity with nothing but negatives,

As result, $RIVN is sitting near or at the 52-wk low, down over 17%.

The take away about the call is that the Rivian appear to have no sense of urgency to get the business rolling and they sound bit arrogant and drinking their own bathwater.

 

[mkg3]

And Tesla (as far as I know) didn't START producing vehicles during a pandemic and unheard of global supply chain constraints. Rivian will only get better from here.

People have to stop comparing Rivian business to Tesla. It is meaningless.

Rivian has to stand on its own as a business. Doesn't matter what Tesla did or did not. Its a different company in a different time with different business mix.

Rivian has to do better, if it wants to be successful.

 

[Calvin2518]

People have to stop comparing Rivian business to Tesla. It is meaningless.

Rivian has to stand on its own as a business. Doesn't matter what Tesla did or did not. Its a different company in a different time with different business mix.

Rivian has to do better, if it wants to be successful.

Agreed - people will never stop comparing Rivian to Tesla, though. Tesla is kind of just the gold standard (for now) for 1. New, 2. American, 3. EV, manufacturers.

We're in the process of trading in my Audi RS3 for a new Tesla M3P as we speak - it will be our first EV and waiting on my R1T. Having spent time in both - they're more similar than not, that's for sure.

It's a really awesome comparison though that Rivian is doing as freakin' well as they are given the current climate of supply chain woes, covid, etc.

All manufacturers are hurting and Rivian is crushing it despite it.
#1 producer of electric trucks in the world, #1 producer of electric SUVs in the world, and #1 producer of electric delivery vans in the world is NO JOKE!

 

[Redline]

Just got around to listening the earnings call. Was busy yesterday during live.

I gotta say, it's one of the worst call I've listened to in a long time. It's D+ at best. I listen to lots of earnings call for stocks I own so I have pretty good base to compare the call against other companies.

Both RJ and Clare really didn't answer most questions directly and left lot of doubt in their responses. The unfortunate thing about doing so is that people will read between the lines and fill the ambiguity with nothing but negatives,

As result, $RIVN is sitting near or at the 52-wk low, down over 17%.

The take away about the call is that the Rivian appear to have no sense of urgency to get the business rolling and they sound bit arrogant and drinking their own bathwater.

I've listened to all their calls. They just don't do a good job period.

 

[DuoRivians]

Here’s how I think the call could have been better, assuming they’re not factually incorrect.

- give a production range, eg 55-65k for 2023, rather than one number
- if net preorders increased, say so without revealing by how much. When RJ goes on a tangent of “higher interest rate” environment and just says “robust”, it’s pessimistic
- if enduro saves money, provide an estimate. Eg, “enduro engines built in-house with vertical integration can improve our gross margins by x% points”

Basically I’m saying mgmt is too coy, conservative, not providing enough details

 

[Guy]

Just got around to listening the earnings call. Was busy yesterday during live.

I gotta say, it's one of the worst call I've listened to in a long time. It's D+ at best. I listen to lots of earnings call for stocks I own so I have pretty good base to compare the call against other companies.

Both RJ and Clare really didn't answer most questions directly and left lot of doubt in their responses. The unfortunate thing about doing so is that people will read between the lines and fill the ambiguity with nothing but negatives,

As result, $RIVN is sitting near or at the 52-wk low, down over 17%.

The take away about the call is that the Rivian appear to have no sense of urgency to get the business rolling and they sound bit arrogant and drinking their own bathwater.

I really want Rivian to succeed and they have built a great product. But I agree they seem at time to lack urgency - this is seen with the SC rollout, RAN rollout, the Georgia factory plans and the ramp up at Normal. They don’t always exhibit the hustle of a start up.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I really want Rivian to succeed and they have built a great product. But I agree they seem at time to lack urgency - this is seen with the SC rollout, RAN rollout, the Georgia factory plans and the ramp up at Normal. They don’t always exhibit the hustle of a start up.

Personally I prefer their messaging to that of other "high energy" startups like Theranos and WeWork. RJ is not a rah-rah salesman like Elon is. He's not a hype man. Rivian is molded after him and I personally see that as a feature, not a bug.

 

[Guy]

Personally I prefer their messaging to that of other "high energy" startups like Theranos and WeWork. RJ is not a rah-rah salesman like Elon is. He's not a hype man. Rivian is molded after him and I personally see that as a feature, not a bug.

I agree he is not a ray ray salesman and I don’t want him to be. But you can be low key while also driving for better execution of plans.

 

[Riv_Ian]

I remember reading the story of People’s Express airlines in The Fifth Discipline, Art and Practice of the Learning Organization back in the 90’s. Going off feeble memory here, so hope I get the essence if not detail correct. They started out with a very high service quality which made them very popular and they grew very quickly. Unfortunately, too quickly. Faster than they could keep up with the training and acculturation of new employees, which was a large part of what enabled their service model. Service quality slipped causing a downward spiral and they ultimately went bust. The story was used to illustrate a systems dynamic called ’limits to growth’ if I remember correctly; the key lesson being that growth needs to be throttled to the rate that allows for all the key enabling factors to keep up. I hope that this is what Rivian are trying to do. If so, it will be for the best longterm provided they can get there.

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