📊 2022 Q4 and Full-Year Earnings Results & Shareholder Letter: 50K production goal for 2023, ~400 Mile Range for Max Pack

[Madsen203]

So dual motor is a 10% efficiency gain over quad motors it appears. And max pack is a 15% increase over large pack. Wonder if they just changed battery material to get the range rather than increasing battery size.

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[Guy]

I think it is good news - they estimated 50k vehicles for 2023 in the past, and they are still forecasting that number. It shows they are on-track with their business/production plan. As an investor, that matters to me.

It is not good news to basically stay flat from December 2022 to December 2023 and run the expanded factory at 25% of capacity. Why spend the money expanding and hiring a third shift if it is going to take to 2025 to get over 100k at this rate.

 

[SANZC02]

50k is a joke. What happened to third shift?

They explained it. They are taking lines down in Q4 for configuration adjustments for the other options. They also explained the EDV line was down in Q1 for adjustments. This will cut into their build totals.

They also said there will be adjustments mid 2024 that will bring the R1 line up to an 85k annual rate.

Other than the disappointing delivery numbers with no real mention of the delivery bottle neck or any update on the Georgia plant, overall I thought it was a decent report.

To put 50k in perspective for Rivian’s second full year of production. Tesla only had 31.6k vehicles in 2014 their second full year and did not hit 50k until 2015 their 3rd full year.

 

[R1Sky Business]

Well not thrilled with the guidance of 50k vehicles, but interesting to hear about the LFP and allowing the max pack to current holders. I might be tempted to switch to the max pack dual motor vs the current large pack quad.

So 75K vehicles produced by end of 23.....?

 

[mkg3]

RJ said as much on the conference call, with 2 shifts they can produce more than 50k but semi supply is still a problem. Also they mentioned taking the RDV line down for some period in 1H 2023.

Commodity prices have come down quite a bit since this time last year and chip sectors have caught up on supply issues for the most part.

If RJ is still whining about supply shortages, it simply means that Rivian is a low priority from the supplier perspective. Rivian is at the bottom of the priority.

I recall Must saying that it wasn't until Model 3, that the suppliers took Tesla seriously. From supplier's perspective, volume = higher priority. Its clear that Rivian needs a different supplier strategy and different senior execs in the supplier roles.

 

[SANZC02]

So dual motor is a 10% efficiency gain over quad motors it appears. And max pack is a 15% increase over large pack. Wonder if they just changed battery material to get the range rather than increasing battery size.

I’m curious if the efficiency gain is more about going from quad to dual or mostly from the new Rivian motors being more efficient.

Probably bodes well for decent efficiency for the R2 platforms.

 

[jakef801]

Interesting read. No real surprises in there other than the R1S Max, but as far as financials go it's about what was expected. They've got work to do to survive, but it seems like they are doing it. I'm hard pressed to believe they'll be operationally profitable in 2024.

Without doing my research, I highly doubt any automakers, ever, have been profitable in less than 2 years since delivery of their 1st vehicle.

 

[R1Sky Business]

The irony is they are trying hard to get rid of price-locked quad holders.

They can keep trying

 

[RBR1S]

*skipping the thread to be here*

I can't be the only one who is pissed off at the "Max Pack" coming in the R1S but only if I order a crappy dual motor instead of the quad. This is frustrating at best, annoying and disappointing for sure.

Of course by the time they actually get around to this, it won't matter because they'll use a AA battery that go 400 miles due to newer tech.

 

[Guy]

They explained it. They are taking lines down in Q4 for configuration adjustments for the other options. They also explained the EDV line was down in Q1 for adjustments. This will cut into their build totals.

They also said there will be adjustments mid 2024 that will bring the R1 line up to an 85k annual rate.

Other than the disappointing delivery numbers with no real mention of the delivery bottle neck or any update on the Georgia plant, overall I thought it was a decent report.

To put 50k in perspective for Rivian’s second full year of production. Tesla only had 31.6k vehicles in 2014 their second full year and did not hit 50k until 2015 their 3rd full year.

Comparing a company from 9 years ago is not the best defense for a disappointing set of production figures. The world has moved on and EV manufacture is not so new or novel as it was in 2014.

 

[SANZC02]

Commodity prices have come down quite a bit since this time last year and chip sectors have caught up on supply issues for the most part.

If RJ is still whining about supply shortages, it simply means that Rivian is a low priority from the supplier perspective. Rivian is at the bottom of the priority.

I recall Must saying that it wasn't until Model 3, that the suppliers took Tesla seriously. From supplier's perspective, volume = higher priority. Its clear that Rivian needs a different supplier strategy and different senior execs in the supplier roles.

They covered some of that in the meeting. Looks like the high ratings from customers and press as well as the current increases in production is paying longer term dividends on the R2 platform contract negotiations. Also seems to be helping as they start negotiating new/extensions for the R1 supply contracts.

 

[Zoidz]

It is not good news to basically stay flat from December 2022 to December 2023 and run the expanded factory at 25% of capacity. Why spend the money expanding and hiring a third shift if it is going to take to 2025 to get over 100k at this rate.

There is no third shift according to the report.

Edit to include report info about shifts:
“In late 2022, we started production on our second manufacturing shift which is a key step in ramping our R1 production. We are excited with the team’s progress and look forward
to the second shift continuing to grow its contribution to overall production.”

 

[Guy]

There is no third shift according to the report.

Good, at this rate a second shift is hardly needed!
Taking the line down for a week here or there should have no impact on volume as they are parts constrained and can run higher if they have the parts.

 

[Zoidz]

Good, at this rate a second shift is hardly needed!
Taking the line down for a week here or there should have no impact on volume as they are parts constrained and can run higher if they have the parts.

That’s exactly why I said it is good news - they appear to be in touch with production rates, supply chain and labor.

 

[Killer95Stang]

This might be an unpopular reply, but please either don't share details that could get your neighbor fired, or at least make him aware that you plan to share his answers on the forums before asking him.

From experience, it really sucks when you share something in confidence with a trusted party and then find out they either didn't see it as in confidence, or didn't value your confidence.

If nothing else, he'll probably be your neighbor long after the exclusive goss fades into memory. Not a bridge worth burning, and even if he should be more discrete, a little kindness goes a long way.

I get what you are saying, so I'm pretty careful on any info I share that isn't already publically discussed. The existance of the dual motor variants and max packs was put out in a video by Riviian itself. Whether my neighbor actually has brought one home with a dual motor setup or max pack battery is a mystery to all of us. Fact of the matter is, if they intend to launch the dual motor variants, then they have to test them. That is why my neighbor would have one on the weekends. The bed cover was seen from 25 feet away, and I have no clue whether he made one himself from already available covers from other manufactures or if he was given one to test. Still, if they plan on giving them out as retrofits or finally releasing the manual covers, I would guess they would want to test them beforehand.

As far as dual / Max packs delivery schedule, my neighbor who is not privy to release dates of products, did not have enough confidence in how long it would take, so he opted to change from an R1S, to an R1T Max pack, then finally to an R1T long range so he could take delivery. He was a 2019 reservation holder and the reason I put a reservation for an R1S.

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