📊 2022 Q4 and Full-Year Earnings Results & Shareholder Letter: 50K production goal for 2023, ~400 Mile Range for Max Pack

[greatdane1588]

Is the large pack same as max pack?

No, Max is different/more range.

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[ebarke]

Is it me, or is it looking like they are skimping on the max pack from previous estimates? There was an 80+ mile difference in range, but now it's only 50? That certainly isn't worth 16k, or even 10k for the preorders. I was really hoping for 400+, like how they bumped the large pack up from just over 300, so the max pack would be closer to 420. The only way you can tow anything is to have a much larger range. The truck that can tow something decent sized (2500-3500 lbs) for at least 200 miles without having to stop and charge is going to blow everything away from a sales standpoint.

I keep debating whether or not I should just get a quad motor from the rivian store but really need the towing range. It seems like they are getting the extra range from the dual motors with better efficiency then by adding batteries.

 

[elfordon]

No, Max is different/more range.

It used to be 100 miles more range. Now it’s 50.

 

[Count Orlok]

50k is a joke. What happened to third shift?

 

[pc500]

One of the points of the announcement today was that they said they will reaching out existing reservation holders on how to update your configuration if desired for the Dual/Max , but they didn't give specifics on timing or cost.

Was that on the audio call? Previously you could but you lost locked in pricing (For R1T).

 

[jjswan33]

50k is a joke. What happened to third shift?

Not enough Semiconductors, a third shift would create higher cost without the supply of parts.

 

[pc500]

It used to be 100 miles more range. Now it’s 50.

They got some range from efficiency of dual/bottom of pack opening. The remainder likely comes from a larger pack, but not as large as we initially envisioned. (155 vs 180? just a guess).

 

[Honey]

I wonder what the cost will be for R1S max pack dual+ vs pre-march'22 quad

 

[Zoidz]

Well not thrilled with the guidance of 50k vehicles, but interesting to hear about the LFP and allowing the max pack to current holders. I might be tempted to switch to the max pack dual motor vs the current large pack quad.

I think it is good news - they estimated 50k vehicles for 2023 in the past, and they are still forecasting that number. It shows they are on-track with their business/production plan. As an investor, that matters to me.

 

[Count Orlok]

Not enough Semiconductors, a third shift would create higher cost without the supply of parts.

it is 2023 not 2020 anymore.

 

[kylealden]

Since I've been pushed back to a 1st half of 2024 delivery for my R1S (11/21 order), I'd take a dual / max pack over the quad if available at that time. I know my neighbor who works for Rivian testing said he had been driving dual motor and max pack R1's at work. He has also been bringing testers home for the last few years in many different stages of development. He had his own new 23 model R1 and a Tester in his driveway this past weekend, but I never made it over to see if it was a dual motor. I also saw that he had a bed cover that looked factory on his personal R1, even though his was one of the R1's that didn't come with one. I was walking the dog and had to leave so I couldn't go over to investigate. By the next morning, it was gone. I'll ask about the bed cover if I see him when his wife gets home with their R1.

This might be an unpopular reply, but please either don't share details that could get your neighbor fired, or at least make him aware that you plan to share his answers on the forums before asking him.

From experience, it really sucks when you share something in confidence with a trusted party and then find out they either didn't see it as in confidence, or didn't value your confidence.

If nothing else, he'll probably be your neighbor long after the exclusive goss fades into memory. Not a bridge worth burning, and even if he should be more discrete, a little kindness goes a long way.

 

[jjswan33]

it is 2023 not 2020 anymore.

RJ said as much on the conference call, with 2 shifts they can produce more than 50k but semi supply is still a problem. Also they mentioned taking the RDV line down for some period in 1H 2023.

 

[mkg3]

50k is a joke. What happened to third shift?

That's why the stock is down 10% in after-hours trading....

 

[DTown3011]

Is it me, or is it looking like they are skimping on the max pack from previous estimates? There was an 80+ mile difference in range, but now it's only 50? That certainly isn't worth 16k, or even 10k for the preorders. I was really hoping for 400+, like how they bumped the large pack up from just over 300, so the max pack would be closer to 420. The only way you can tow anything is to have a much larger range. The truck that can tow something decent sized (2500-3500 lbs) for at least 200 miles without having to stop and charge is going to blow everything away from a sales standpoint.

I keep debating whether or not I should just get a quad motor from the rivian store but really need the towing range. It seems like they are getting the extra range from the dual motors with better efficiency then by adding batteries.

Agree with this and glad I am taking a large pack delivery. At just 50 more miles for the max pack, it doesn't show a meaningful difference in range to justify the extra cost.

 

[AbhorViolence]

So now it seems ever single major spec that I chose when I placed my order has been cancelled or effectively cancelled.

Explore package: cancelled

Quad Motor Max Pack: cancelled/delayed indefinitely

180kwh Max Pack: cancelled/majorly reduced

Including full size spare with order: cancelled

Meanwhile with these changes the overall price has increased. Delivery fee has gone up by about $800. Automatic tonneau cover is currently unavailable with no time frame for reintroduction. Many other iconic options (camp kitchen, tent) cancelled/delayed indefinitely.

And despite all of this, actual deliveries have only been delayed further for most people. Even the update on the delivery timing for my (delayed yet again) Max Pack order has been delayed 3+ months. I still don't have a current estimate.

Over a year ago they promised real time updated web site delivery estimates based on real time config adjustments, then told me last May that this would be coming end of summer 2022. Still don't have it and they seem to have scrapped any plans for that.

I'm also a stock holder and I understand some of these choices from a business perspective. But sooner than later they need to start delivering what they sold to people.

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