Kialoa

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FYI - by far the slowest and most labor-intensive step in analyzing this data is the QC involved in curating this database. When you consider all the fields captured - there are more than 10,000 data points. In the version I looked at there were numerous ‘impossible’ combinations, missing models ordered, incorrect dates, almost certainly incorrect delivery dates (non-LE MaxPack delivered in Feb ‘22?), duplicates, etc. etc. This resulted in having to delete most of these suspect entries or risk not seeing valid trends.

If we could implement some form of data QC - maybe using the survey submission time stamp plus location - to identify records that need correcting - then we could significantly improve the analysis. Of course it still needs someone with ‘write access’ to do the actual editing. And then we would have to agree on a ‘lock date’ to seal a database version - say Dec 7th - for that round of analysis. 🤔
 

Mark K

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Sadly humans are human. There will always be noise in human entered datasets, part of analysis is identifying and handling that noise.

My opinion is to make the survey as easy as possible to allow for the greatest number of responses.

It could be changed to be more rigid and require more fields, but that can turn off people and we lose their data then.

Any required fields or invalid configs that could be errored at submission can easily be filtered out during analysis.
Thank for repairing my errant entry.
 

Sgt Beavis

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I posted in the thread but I don’t see me on the map. I’m in Monroe, Louisiana. It appears to be the only order in the mid-south just looking at the map. March-April delivery.
Sweet, someone from my old stomping grounds.
GEAUX WMHS 😁
 

loudOrange

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Just so everything doesn't get lost in the mega thread with the poll, I compiled the links to the survey, the spreadsheet results, the dashboard results, and a geojson here:

https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

I manually generate the geojson so it won't be in sync with the spreadsheet and dashboard.

1637730964244.png


Enjoy!

Just a quick edit: https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/index2.html has the clustering enabled if you want to drill down into specific areas


Updated 11/27 @ 6PM Eastern with some data trend interpretation / analysis by @Kialoa :

Started looking at the data in the spreadsheet a bit more closely. While there is data that seems to have errors attached (LE AND MaxPack), some duplicates, and some dates typed incorrectly, there is enough to extract trends. I tried to remove most of the suspect entries and made a series of wild assumptions to see what could be learnt from the few hundred remaining data-sets. So far I focused on LE R1T data only. My thoughts so far:

1. The strongest correlation to Projected Delivery Date seems to be the Pre-Order date (Black line in Fig).
2. Within the contiguous 48 states location does not seem to play a significant role
3. Outside the Contig-48 and for Canada the delay seems to be 3-4 quarters (red line below).
4. The Exterior Color, Wheels, Spare, Off-road-Upgrade, and Accessories do not seem to play a significant role
5. Interior Color DOES seem to influence delivery dates. Black Mtn seems to be prioritized. Ocean Coast seems to have a 1-8 week delay, and Forest Edge seems to have the longest delay (4-10 weeks).

Not sure if Excel Figs are legible in this forum, but just in case they are - one of the Figs. I generated is included below. With more data - and more QC of the data - quite a few conclusions could be extracted. Even with the data in hand there is more that could be done to look at non-LE orders, and look at all the R1S data.

survey_1-png.png



Since the last Fig was readable - thought I'd share the estimated impact of the interior color selection. The Black Mtn data is not shown again (was on last Fig) - and is only indicated by black line here. Forest Edge data is in Green with Red Text - clearly right-shifted (delayed). On closer inspection Ocean Coast data (light blue, Black Text) is more complex. Almost seems like a bimodal distribution - SOME of the orders are minimally (0-1 week) delayed wrt Black Mtn. Anther set of orders almost overlap with Forest edge delays. As always, there are some outliers...

survey_2-png.png
Thanks for doing this - I see i have a Rivian neighbor in the next town north of me in New Hampshire. I am in Plainfield NH, delivery window is march/April 2-22, order date 1/30/19, LE, LG, black interior, off road package, gear tunnel shuttle, crossbars & bike racks.
 
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Craigins

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Galluprivian

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Thanks for doing this. I love the graph (I teach math). I am an outlier (ordered 12/19 delivery june/july le rs1 lg bm). but living in gallup, nm. generally last to the table with most things.
 
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Craigins

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https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

Added a new download button, downloads the csv dataset with the geospatial processing added on to it (for those that didn't want to process the geojson to do analysis). https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/geosurvey.csv

Also I added an "invalid" column since people said cleaning up the data is time consuming.

Currently invalid is keyed off of:

Battery: Max Pack
Trim: Adventure|Explorer
DeliveryWindow: Later
Trim: Adventure + Color: Launch Green
Trim: Explorer + Color: Launch Green
PreorderDate >= 12/1/2020

(last 2 are tossed in there for when non-LE people get their delivery windows, and i wanted to test out multiple attribute identification)

Are there any other invalid combinations that people can think of?
 

SeaGeo

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@Craigins thanks for pulling this together! I know I sort of pawned it off onto others (you) the other day when I didn't have the bandwidth to generate the survey in the middle of the day and you've been running with it.
 

williescout

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Somewhat related question to this topic - has anyone since receiving delivery their window notification changed their delivery location? My window is May/June. Currently I have delivery location set for a semi rural, small town but could change that to a major metro like the SF Bay Area which has a service center about ready to go. Do you think making that change would move up my delivery date? I've reached out to Rivian by chat but they have nothing definitive to share on this scenario.
 
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Craigins

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Somewhat related question to this topic - has anyone since receiving delivery their window notification changed their delivery location? My window is May/June. Currently I have delivery location set for a semi rural, small town but could change that to a major metro like the SF Bay Area which has a service center about ready to go. Do you think making that change would move up my delivery date? I've reached out to Rivian by chat but they have nothing definitive to share on this scenario.
Production schedule has been set. Changes will only move you back.
 
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Craigins

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GaryL

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I guess I was under the impression that LE reservation holders would actual get a chance to discuss the configuration with our guide and maybe see the damn thing in person before we were locked in to color, exc. or forfute the assigned build window. The whole deal is screwed up. Guide contacts should come before a configuration lock thats locks us into a production window.
 
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