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Craigins

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elihertz

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Just so everything doesn't get lost in the mega thread with the poll, I compiled the links to the survey, the spreadsheet results, the dashboard results, and a geojson here:

https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

I manually generate the geojson so it won't be in sync with the spreadsheet and dashboard.

1637730964244.png


Enjoy!

Just a quick edit: https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/index2.html has the clustering enabled if you want to drill down into specific areas


Updated 11/27 @ 6PM Eastern with some data trend interpretation / analysis by @Kialoa :

Started looking at the data in the spreadsheet a bit more closely. While there is data that seems to have errors attached (LE AND MaxPack), some duplicates, and some dates typed incorrectly, there is enough to extract trends. I tried to remove most of the suspect entries and made a series of wild assumptions to see what could be learnt from the few hundred remaining data-sets. So far I focused on LE R1T data only. My thoughts so far:

1. The strongest correlation to Projected Delivery Date seems to be the Pre-Order date (Black line in Fig).
2. Within the contiguous 48 states location does not seem to play a significant role
3. Outside the Contig-48 and for Canada the delay seems to be 3-4 quarters (red line below).
4. The Exterior Color, Wheels, Spare, Off-road-Upgrade, and Accessories do not seem to play a significant role
5. Interior Color DOES seem to influence delivery dates. Black Mtn seems to be prioritized. Ocean Coast seems to have a 1-8 week delay, and Forest Edge seems to have the longest delay (4-10 weeks).

Not sure if Excel Figs are legible in this forum, but just in case they are - one of the Figs. I generated is included below. With more data - and more QC of the data - quite a few conclusions could be extracted. Even with the data in hand there is more that could be done to look at non-LE orders, and look at all the R1S data.

survey_1-png.png



Since the last Fig was readable - thought I'd share the estimated impact of the interior color selection. The Black Mtn data is not shown again (was on last Fig) - and is only indicated by black line here. Forest Edge data is in Green with Red Text - clearly right-shifted (delayed). On closer inspection Ocean Coast data (light blue, Black Text) is more complex. Almost seems like a bimodal distribution - SOME of the orders are minimally (0-1 week) delayed wrt Black Mtn. Anther set of orders almost overlap with Forest edge delays. As always, there are some outliers...

survey_2-png.png
Thanks for the analysis and providing it. Very insightful and helpful. Will you be updating it when the non LE delivery dates are provided by Rivian?
 
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Craigins

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Thanks for the analysis and providing it. Very insightful and helpful. Will you be updating it when the non LE delivery dates are provided by Rivian?
I'll redistribute the survey link when the next round of emails comes out.

@Kialoa did the analysis. Hopefully they keep up with it, or others do more. All the data is open and available.
 

kylealden

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I'll redistribute the survey link when the next round of emails comes out.

@Kialoa did the analysis. Hopefully they keep up with it, or others do more. All the data is open and available.
Not sure how I did this but FYI I'm 7/9/0196, it should be 7/9/2019 naturally 😅
 

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As a side note - I'm a bit concerned about the data integrity here, there are ten separate entries configured as "Max Pack" but trim as "Launch Edition" (several of which are "Launch Green"), which is an impossible configuration. (to say nothing of the one who reserved a Max Pack R1S Adventure on 11/24/2021 and it will be delivered March-April? nuh-uh.)
 
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Craigins

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As a side note - I'm a bit concerned about the data integrity here, there are ten separate entries configured as "Max Pack" but trim as "Launch Edition" (several of which are "Launch Green"), which is an impossible configuration. (to say nothing of the one who reserved a Max Pack R1S Adventure on 11/24/2021 and it will be delivered March-April? nuh-uh.)
Sadly humans are human. There will always be noise in human entered datasets, part of analysis is identifying and handling that noise.

My opinion is to make the survey as easy as possible to allow for the greatest number of responses.

It could be changed to be more rigid and require more fields, but that can turn off people and we lose their data then.

Any required fields or invalid configs that could be errored at submission can easily be filtered out during analysis.
 

Khaneric

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So I included my data but I've been a little mute on the subject because I feel like I'm jumping the line. I preordered March 1, 2019 (LE, RB, BM, 22s) and some interesting things have happened.

I was one of the first people contacted by my guide in early June and I've talked to her on the phone multiple times. My theory has always been that an initial group of preorder holders were selected in a lottery for a chance to attend the very first event at the factory months ago because I had a lot of questions asked that fit a casting call (I used to work in TV).

Anyway, I didn't make the cut, but I did have my guide call me about my delivery date a week before you all got your emails. She told me it would be March 2022.

Ironically, when all the emails did come out I DID NOT get one.

About a week later I DID get an email from Rivian with my delivery date being February/March.

1638231110787.png


Hopefully I get my truck in February but we'll see.
 

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Why all the work making all these graphs and analysis when Rivian will just delay again? Nothing what they've said before has been accurate. Why would the new estimations be accurate?

5vzzck.jpg
 

Mark K

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Sadly humans are human. There will always be noise in human entered datasets, part of analysis is identifying and handling that noise.

My opinion is to make the survey as easy as possible to allow for the greatest number of responses.

It could be changed to be more rigid and require more fields, but that can turn off people and we lose their data then.

Any required fields or invalid configs that could be errored at submission can easily be filtered out during analysis.
I tried to change my errors in several ways but the person who created this survey has not been willing to update my entry and I am not allowed to do it myself. So apparently correcting invalid information is not acceptable for this survey.
 
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Craigins

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I tried to change my errors in several ways but the person who created this survey has not been willing to update my entry and I am not allowed to do it myself. So apparently correcting invalid information is not acceptable for this survey.
I'm not granting edit privileges to spreadsheet, so that's out.

You stated a mix-up between max pack vs large pack with a timestamp, however I don't see any record in the sheet around that timestamp that would need correcting.

The only fishy record around that area is:

11/25/2021 10:48:04San Mateo, ca11/27/2018April - May 2022R1SMax PackLECompass Yellow

which is clearly incorrect because you can't have LE+MaxPack. Is that you?

Your forum account however says Michigan, which leads me to:

11/25/2021 10:17:57Michigan9/16/2019April - May 2022R1TLargeLEForest Green

but that has Large specified not max.

Am I missing something?
 

Mark K

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I'm not granting edit privileges to spreadsheet, so that's out.

You stated a mix-up between max pack vs large pack with a timestamp, however I don't see any record in the sheet around that timestamp that would need correcting.

The only fishy record around that area is:

11/25/2021 10:48:04San Mateo, ca11/27/2018April - May 2022R1SMax PackLECompass Yellow

which is clearly incorrect because you can't have LE+MaxPack. Is that you?

Your forum account however says Michigan, which leads me to:

11/25/2021 10:17:57Michigan9/16/2019April - May 2022R1TLargeLEForest Green

but that has Large specified not max.

Am I missing something?
Yes. The spreadsheet told me I could request a change. I typed in the date that specified when I completed the poll. Apparently you don't have access to change requests. In this case, to be more specific, the record is number 452 which is for Lansing Michigan and shows the error that I want repaired. Max Pack should be Large Pack.
 

Fast911

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Hey everyone,
I made a mistake and enter the max pack when it should be the large battery. Everything else is correct.
 

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Hey everyone,
I made a mistake and enter the max pack when it should be the large battery. Everything else is correct.
Which data entry was yours?
 
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