JEV

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I just entered my info in the survey. I pre-ordered 11-26-2018, R1T, LE, LG, FE, 20" AT.

I have a March-April 2022 delivery estimate.
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twinprice

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Started looking at the data in the spreadsheet a bit more closely. While there is data that seems to have errors attached (LE AND MaxPack), some duplicates, and some dates typed incorrectly, there is enough to extract trends. I tried to remove most of the suspect entries and made a series of wild assumptions to see what could be learnt from the few hundred remaining data-sets. So far I focused on LE R1T data only. My thoughts so far:

1. The strongest correlation to Projected Delivery Date seems to be the Pre-Order date (Black line in Fig).
2. Within the contiguous 48 states location does not seem to play a significant role
3. Outside the Contig-48 and for Canada the delay seems to be 3-4 quarters (red line below).
4. The Exterior Color, Wheels, Spare, Off-road-Upgrade, and Accessories do not seem to play a significant role
5. Interior Color DOES seem to influence delivery dates. Black Mtn seems to be prioritized. Ocean Coast seems to have a 1-8 week delay, and Forest Edge seems to have the longest delay (4-10 weeks).

Not sure if Excel Figs are legible in this forum, but just in case they are - one of the Figs. I generated is included below. With more data - and more QC of the data - quite a few conclusions could be extracted. Even with the data in hand there is more that could be done to look at non-LE orders, and look at all the R1S data.

View attachment 12237
That is awesome! Can't wait to see the R1S detail! ;)
 

J__Fox

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I actually just switched from FE back to BM. I had been going back and forth and this helped confirm BM. I had similar specs and reservation date as other NorCal orders, but was a window later. The data seems to support that. Curious to see if it will shift my estimate either officially or unofficially.
 
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Craigins

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I actually just switched from FE back to BM. I had been going back and forth and this helped confirm BM. I had similar specs and reservation date as other NorCal orders, but was a window later. The data seems to support that. Curious to see if it will shift my estimate either officially or unofficially.
From other threads, it sounds like the production schedule is set, so changing can only make you later. Aside from if people with your exact config cancel or change as well.
 

the long way downunder

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Launch Edition R1S estimated delivery window April-May 2022
Reservation November 2018 - correction from 2017
Large pack / Midnight / Black mountain / 22 sport bright wheels / wall charger / all-weather floor mats / field kit
That seems 3 months earlier than others – the others R1S LE I've seen are June-ish 2022.
 

Kialoa

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That is awesome! Can't wait to see the R1S detail! ;)
May take me a bit to get back to this - Omicron response plans are going to keep me busy for the next few days :(
 

the long way downunder

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Adding my datum point to the chart … seems like there's not a lot of people who've responded to this survey with "day one" pre-orders.
1638141497093.png
1638141497093.png
1638141497093.png
1638141497093.png
1638141598708.png
 

DB-EV

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Just so everything doesn't get lost in the mega thread with the poll, I compiled the links to the survey, the spreadsheet results, the dashboard results, and a geojson here:

https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

I manually generate the geojson so it won't be in sync with the spreadsheet and dashboard.

1637730964244.png


Enjoy!

Just a quick edit: https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/index2.html has the clustering enabled if you want to drill down into specific areas


Updated 11/27 @ 6PM Eastern with some data trend interpretation / analysis by @Kialoa :

Started looking at the data in the spreadsheet a bit more closely. While there is data that seems to have errors attached (LE AND MaxPack), some duplicates, and some dates typed incorrectly, there is enough to extract trends. I tried to remove most of the suspect entries and made a series of wild assumptions to see what could be learnt from the few hundred remaining data-sets. So far I focused on LE R1T data only. My thoughts so far:

1. The strongest correlation to Projected Delivery Date seems to be the Pre-Order date (Black line in Fig).
2. Within the contiguous 48 states location does not seem to play a significant role
3. Outside the Contig-48 and for Canada the delay seems to be 3-4 quarters (red line below).
4. The Exterior Color, Wheels, Spare, Off-road-Upgrade, and Accessories do not seem to play a significant role
5. Interior Color DOES seem to influence delivery dates. Black Mtn seems to be prioritized. Ocean Coast seems to have a 1-8 week delay, and Forest Edge seems to have the longest delay (4-10 weeks).

Not sure if Excel Figs are legible in this forum, but just in case they are - one of the Figs. I generated is included below. With more data - and more QC of the data - quite a few conclusions could be extracted. Even with the data in hand there is more that could be done to look at non-LE orders, and look at all the R1S data.

survey_1-png.png



Since the last Fig was readable - thought I'd share the estimated impact of the interior color selection. The Black Mtn data is not shown again (was on last Fig) - and is only indicated by black line here. Forest Edge data is in Green with Red Text - clearly right-shifted (delayed). On closer inspection Ocean Coast data (light blue, Black Text) is more complex. Almost seems like a bimodal distribution - SOME of the orders are minimally (0-1 week) delayed wrt Black Mtn. Anther set of orders almost overlap with Forest edge delays. As always, there are some outliers...

survey_2-png.png
This is so awesome, thank you. Would you consider posting something similar for R1s poll?
 

DTM

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I thought I'd responded to the survey but map doesn't show any in my area. Preorder 12/6/18, max pack,Blue & forest edge, standard wheels, off road Adventure version. Live near Paso Robles, CA
 

SeaGeo

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I thought I'd responded to the survey but map doesn't show any in my area. Preorder 12/6/18, max pack,Blue & forest edge, standard wheels, off road Adventure version. Live near Paso Robles, CA
what's your window?
 
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Craigins

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I thought I'd responded to the survey but map doesn't show any in my area. Preorder 12/6/18, max pack,Blue & forest edge, standard wheels, off road Adventure version. Live near Paso Robles, CA
And when? The map doesn't auto update, I have to update it manually. Last update was midday Sunday. I'll update it again tomorrow morning.
 
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Craigins

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I think next I'll try to add the service center hubs from the roadshow to the map and assign reservations to their "closest" service center. Might give us insight into service center delays.

Won't be supee accurate since the survey is general location, but hopefully it will reveal more info.
 

Trandall

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I'm now realizing I should have included my town with my location. I just indicated New York as I don't live near any major metro areas so results assume NYC but I live 4 hours from NYC so it may well not be my closest service center. Thanks to those who have spent time compiling and formatting this data. Hopefully everyone will realize this is best seen as a fun exorcise and not loose their minds if it ends up playing out differently.
 

EnjoyTheDrive

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Just so everything doesn't get lost in the mega thread with the poll, I compiled the links to the survey, the spreadsheet results, the dashboard results, and a geojson here:

https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

I manually generate the geojson so it won't be in sync with the spreadsheet and dashboard.

1637730964244.png


Enjoy!

Just a quick edit: https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/index2.html has the clustering enabled if you want to drill down into specific areas


Updated 11/27 @ 6PM Eastern with some data trend interpretation / analysis by @Kialoa :

Started looking at the data in the spreadsheet a bit more closely. While there is data that seems to have errors attached (LE AND MaxPack), some duplicates, and some dates typed incorrectly, there is enough to extract trends. I tried to remove most of the suspect entries and made a series of wild assumptions to see what could be learnt from the few hundred remaining data-sets. So far I focused on LE R1T data only. My thoughts so far:

1. The strongest correlation to Projected Delivery Date seems to be the Pre-Order date (Black line in Fig).
2. Within the contiguous 48 states location does not seem to play a significant role
3. Outside the Contig-48 and for Canada the delay seems to be 3-4 quarters (red line below).
4. The Exterior Color, Wheels, Spare, Off-road-Upgrade, and Accessories do not seem to play a significant role
5. Interior Color DOES seem to influence delivery dates. Black Mtn seems to be prioritized. Ocean Coast seems to have a 1-8 week delay, and Forest Edge seems to have the longest delay (4-10 weeks).

Not sure if Excel Figs are legible in this forum, but just in case they are - one of the Figs. I generated is included below. With more data - and more QC of the data - quite a few conclusions could be extracted. Even with the data in hand there is more that could be done to look at non-LE orders, and look at all the R1S data.

survey_1-png.png



Since the last Fig was readable - thought I'd share the estimated impact of the interior color selection. The Black Mtn data is not shown again (was on last Fig) - and is only indicated by black line here. Forest Edge data is in Green with Red Text - clearly right-shifted (delayed). On closer inspection Ocean Coast data (light blue, Black Text) is more complex. Almost seems like a bimodal distribution - SOME of the orders are minimally (0-1 week) delayed wrt Black Mtn. Anther set of orders almost overlap with Forest edge delays. As always, there are some outliers...

survey_2-png.png
Maumee, OH - LE R1S El Cap/Ocean/20" AT Black - order date May 2019. Delivery window May-June 2022.
 
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