“New” Quad Motor R1T pricing is crazy and not sustainable (even if Cybertruck priced higher than original reveal price estimate)

[mabowden]

We will see. New CT pricing is all speculation at this point.

Industry experts are all over the place on predictions. Some say mid $60k for the Dual, others say $89k for the Tri/Quad.

Oh boy do I have some snake oil to sell you... Off of the black market it will sell for DOUBLE, no TRIPLE what I sell it to you for I promise...

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[mabowden]

I just explained to my wife yesterday that either way, the Cybertruck will be screwed. The whole reason Tesla had that big profit margin is because of Ys and 3s are basically the same car and sharing the same parts. With CT, a new production line, most parts (if not all) will be new; if they price the CT too low to attract buyers, they will lose money. If they price it too high, most people will not consider buying a CT and most likely look into other e-trucks, except for the fan boys (including my brother). There has been 4 years since the CT announcement (2019), CT had really lost the edge no matter how they price it. My two cents.

IMHO It lost the edge because its 1) massive and 2) hideous

 

[moosehead]

As others note, free isn’t cheap enuf for the CT.

 

[SDH]

If you currently own a R1T, why do you care what price the CT will be? Even if you don't own a R1T, again, why do you care?

You either want a CT or you don't; you can either afford it, or not. Same goes for the R1. If you think the price is too high for you, don't buy it. Simple as that. If sufficient demand falls, they 'might' lower the price. Great.

I just don't get all this whining from Joe Public about the price of a very discretionary item.

 

[kylealden]

I think it's easy to overestimate how many people will cross-shop the cybertruck and R1T. In reality I suspect the overlap is pretty small.

It's kind of like cross-shopping a Razer Blade and a MacBook Pro; sure, it happens, and the capability overlap is real, but the target buyer (in terms of aesthetics, use cases, brand affinity, reputation, etc.) is generally quite different.

Even if the Cybertruck beat the R1T on every spec sheet item (it won't) for $20k less (it won't), I wouldn't buy one; it's massive, it's hideous, and to me the Elon association is now poison.

It's also meaningful that Rivians are now the best selling EVs in their price segment ($70k+). For the money they are outselling not just Audi, Mercedes, BMW, etc. - but also the Model S/X. That's huge, and it I think it speaks to Rivian having a super strong brand that much more successfully walks the line between "groundbreaking tech" and "premium experience" than Tesla has so far been able to, and being the only serious scale player in the full-size SUV space.

I just don't see the Cybertruck seriously threatening any of the above. If anything, I think it's a much more direct competitor with the Hummer EV, Silverado, and (to a lesser extent) the F-150 Lightning.

If I were RJ, the Cybertruck wouldn't be on my list. I'd be thinking much more about how to make sure Subaru, Toyota, and Jeep never have a chance to get a foothold in the "rugged e-crossover" market opportunity that they've been sleeping on, before the R2 arrives.

 

[SASSquatch]

The bottom line is - Rivian has already shifted to focusing on the R2 because the R1 will never have the volume or profit margins necessary to keep the company afloat.

They simply aren't going to sell enough premium priced trucks to get here. Period.

They know volume is the answer, and the only way to do that is with R2 just like Model 3 and then Model Y were the answer for Tesla after Model S/X.

 

[j.w.s]

...
The $90k plus pricing for a Quad Motor R1T is crazy. I never would have considered purchasing a R1T at the new price point. I simply don’t see this price point being sustainable in the long run.
...

Someone commented that the Rivian R1S is like a Range Rover with a splash of Wranger Rubicon aesthetic thrown in. The folks from Munro specifically said the Rivian R1 chassis and suspension looked like a "high-end Range Rover from the future".

A no-options-selected Range Rover Sport dynamic (the mid-range version of the mid-range model) will cost you $94K, and isn't even an EV. A quad-motor Rivian at the same price doesn't seem overpriced at all.

 

[mini2nut]

Got my R1T at $81k pre price increase and enjoy it but would not have purchased at $95k. Though, I would have gotten a cheaper dual motor or a used one. At any rate, those prices will keep the R1 series limited in terms of production (Tesla sells less than 100k S and X a year).

Since we're speculating on CT. I guess that price on dual motor will be competitive (mid 60s). Tesla optimized it for cost savings. Interior is spartan, so it could be possible. If they want to sell 350k CT a year, they can't price it at $70k+.

Spartan is an understatement. The only physical controls will be the accelerator, brake, steering wheel and 18” display. The turn signals and wipers appear to be controlled by buttons on the steering wheel.

 

[NY_Rob]

They control the supply chain, they control the manufacturing, they control the demand.

But we control the vertical, we control the horizontal.. and we control the focus!

 

[Dukecj]

Kudos for acknowledging the merits of my argument and then disagreeing and not making it a knife fight. Civilized discourse on forums is jarring when it happens, "this is normal human interaction" and then "wait, this is normal?!"

My bet is they'll be making like $1-2k per car max and they'll only be there because they know if they take a loss they'll gain regulator attention.

People are losing sight of the anti-trust, as in, not considering it at all because they're focused on the overall BEV market share, which is low. Granted that leaves time for the game to play out differently than what I'm about to say but they're failing to consider that Tesla has a monopoly-like hold on that sector and it's set in stone that sector will go from say 7.5% to 100%.

We as Rivian fans should be aware of this dynamic as the Cyber Truck looks to align itself as a loss lead to kill new competition. This, right here, is the start of a monopoly. The first people you crush are the new guys. That's the battle that's being waged no one is talking about. Or barely talking about.

What many EV owners fail to understand is that the true competition in the truck and SUV segment are ICE trucks and SUVs not BEVs which represents a small fraction of the market by comparison. A price war in an effort to sink Rivian would be very poor strategy on Telsa's part IMO. The fact is that BEV trucks cannot compete with ICE trucks, and there is a large portion of the US population that want nothing to with BEV trucks. In fact, the top three selling vehicles in the US are ICE trucks. This is why the OEMs don't want to produce electric vehicles. They are making a lot of profit off their ICE trucks and SUVs. They don't care about Tesla or EVs because their customers don't care about them.

The real challenge that Tesla will face is appealing to traditional truck buyers (and they won't because the Cybertuck is almost useless as a truck). Otherwise, they will only cannibalize their own market share when customers that would have purchased a Model Y or Model X (at a much higher profit margin) decide to purchase a Cybertruck (at no profit margin or a loss). This is a no-win situation for Tesla, so their best option is high prices at low volumes.

In addition, most of Rivian's demand is for the R1S not the R1T. If Tesla wanted to start a price war with Rivan they could have done this with the Model X, but they haven't. It is very likely that Tesla is finding out what the OEMs and Rivian already know; that it is very difficult to produce a profitable electric truck. As such, I have to disagree with your assessment.

 

[Supratachophobia]

I own a $75k “pre-price hike” 2022 R1T and hold a second reservation “just in case” (not pre-price hike) and was invited to The Shop today.

The $90k plus pricing for a Quad Motor R1T is crazy. I never would have considered purchasing a R1T at the new price point. I simply don’t see this price point being sustainable in the long run.

If new Cybertruck pricing comes in at 20% higher than the 2019 reveal prices I think Rivian pickup sales are going to see a dramatic sales drop. It’s about to get interesting in BEV pickup space.

I know there's like, 4 of you out there that think the cyberduck is going to sell well. Assuming it comes out at all, it isn't. I don't think Rivian has anything to worry about on the Tesla front. Now F150 and Chevy? Definitely some cross purchase there. Enough to cause worry? Maybe.

 

[Ecupip]

If they want to sell 350k CT a year, they can't price it at $70k+.

They won’t sell anywhere near 350k units at a $60k price point. They would need significant fleet sales to hit those numbers and I just don’t see fleets buying the CT. It’s not a work truck.

 

[Eeyore]

I think people are going to get sticker shock on the Cyber Truck, there is a reason the prices and specs are not being released, that usually does not mean good news.

That, and the CT is simply stupid looking in my mind.

 

[s4wrxttcs]

Personally I think the pricing of the Quad-Motor R1T isn't its problem.

The problem with the Quad-Motor R1T is its simply isn't good enough for the price.

It's not rugged enough to justify the price increase
It's too damn loud especially around 40mph where you can hear the motor whine.
Driver+ doesn't come close to its competition (blue cruise or Tesla AP)
Quite a few existing customers have issues with the Tok noise

I think people pay close to a $100K expect a more refined experience.

The dual-motor however will likely be pretty darn competitive. Sure Driver+ will still suck, but you're still getting a really decent deal.

Neither is going to hold a candle to the R1S which will sell like hot cakes especially the dual-motor variant.

 

[s4wrxttcs]

Please tell that to all the home sellers in my area. Home sales are still robust even though average prices are only down about 10% from the peak when mortgage rates were 2.5%.

My deflation idea is a very simple one.

If we teach math to the masses they might realize the difference a mortgage rate of 7.87% makes from 3%

If they realize it then maybe they won't buy or they'll pay cash.

I can't see that many people paying cash for a home.

I honestly don't get it. I think people have gone insane.

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