“New” Quad Motor R1T pricing is crazy and not sustainable (even if Cybertruck priced higher than original reveal price estimate)

[R1TS]

Yes, Cybertruck pricing is the big elephant in the room.

Also, this isn’t going to help vehicle or housing sales;

“The Fed hikes interest rates by a quarter point and hints at another increase this year”

Please tell that to all the home sellers in my area. Home sales are still robust even though average prices are only down about 10% from the peak when mortgage rates were 2.5%.

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[rbr19870445]

A transportation system heavily reliant on ICE vehicles and "climate boiling" aren't sustainable either.

I'm a post price hike reservation. Yes, it sucked paying > $90k for this truck but considering the alternatives, I'm happy to try and do my part.

 

[SANZC02]

The model X is a pretty low volume vehicle. Combined sales of S/X are around 60,000 worldwide for the last 4 qtrs. Assuming a generous split that means that the X at best is selling 40,000 units across the world.

Rivian is hoping to get closer to 100k - 125k of these produced per year, right? I don't think they can get there above a $75k price tag which is where the dual motor and standard packs come in. They just need to be compelling enough.

However the near term economy and interest problems are going to impact the business. There's a massive difference between $75k and $90-95k in terms of demand, that's why we went from no one having shop access to many getting it at once with dozens of available vehicles each day.

Rivian will need to pull some levers to get through the next 6 months. Lowering cost is probably the last resort but likely not off the table.

The R1T and R1S are planned as lower volume flagship vehicles just like the Model S/X, they were never intended to be high volume vehicles. The number of 150k target is for both the R1S and R1T, assuming R1S is planned as the higher volume vehicles if it is 66% of the run the R1T would be around 50k units a year. The Model X is really only a bloated sedan where the R1 series are more in the Truck/SUV categories which sale much better than the sedans.

Just my perspective, I could be wrong.

On a side note, reading the Rivian Specs before pricing was announced I assumed the R1S was going to be in the 110-120k pricing and set aside 125k for the purchase. I was still going to buy mine at the newer prices and had no plan to cancel. I paid 72k for a rear wheel drive Model S in 2016, adjusted for inflation that car actually cost more than the steal I got at 79k for my R1S this year.

 

[daeHelkcunK]

I own a $75k “pre-price hike” 2022 R1T and hold a second reservation “just in case” (not pre-price hike) and was invited to The Shop today.

The $90k plus pricing for a Quad Motor R1T is crazy. I never would have considered purchasing a R1T at the new price point. I simply don’t see this price point being sustainable in the long run.

If new Cybertruck pricing comes in at 20% higher than the 2019 reveal prices I think Rivian pickup sales are going to see a dramatic sales drop. It’s about to get interesting in BEV pickup space.

I have to disagree. I have an R1T and an R1S. I have a deposit on the Hummer and was just asked to spec it out. The sticker for a comparably equipped Hummer was $126,000 and I will not be ordering it. The R1T at $91,000 is a comparable bargain and in my opinion a much less cartoonish vehicle befitting a guy who's not a rapper. But, as my car dealer buddy always reminds me, "There's an ass for every seat"

 

[BeanEW]

I just explained to my wife yesterday that either way, the Cybertruck will be screwed. The whole reason Tesla had that big profit margin is because of Ys and 3s are basically the same car and sharing the same parts. With CT, a new production line, most parts (if not all) will be new; if they price the CT too low to attract buyers, they will lose money. If they price it too high, most people will not consider buying a CT and most likely look into other e-trucks, except for the fan boys (including my brother). There has been 4 years since the CT announcement (2019), CT had really lost the edge no matter how they price it. My two cents.

 

[mini2nut]

I don't think many R1T buyers are cross shopping with with an F150 V8 Raptor R pickup. Two totally different pickups.

R1T resale auctions on Cars & Bids and BAT have fallen off a cliff. I get notifications on new postings and have seen a major decline. I think the flippers are done flipping. I do see R1S auctions however.

 

[itselectric]

The R1T and R1S are planned as lower volume flagship vehicles just like the Model S/X, they were never intended to be high volume vehicles. The number of 150k target is for both the R1S and R1T, assuming R1S is planned as the higher volume vehicles if it is 66% of the run the R1T would be around 50k units a year. The Model X is really only a bloated sedan where the R1 series are more in the Truck/SUV categories which sale much better than the sedans.

Just my perspective, I could be wrong.

On a side note, reading the Rivian Specs before pricing was announced I assumed the R1S was going to be in the 110-120k pricing and set aside 125k for the purchase. I was still going to buy mine at the newer prices and had no plan to cancel. I paid 72k for a rear wheel drive Model S in 2016, adjusted for inflation that car actually cost more than the steal I got at 79k for my R1S this year.

Yeah, I get it. But double the sales of the S/X is going to be a challenge.

 

[brancky3]

I don't think many R1T buyers are cross shopping with with an F150 V8 Raptor R pickup. Two totally different pickups.

R1T resale auctions on Cars & Bids and BAT have fallen off a cliff. I get notifications on new postings and have seen a major decline. I think the flippers are done flipping. I do see R1S auctions however.

Why wouldn’t resale slow down? You can basically order an R1T today and get access to the shop within a week to take delivery in 4-8 weeks from what people are saying. There’s no market for these to be flipped because you can buy new without a wait really

 

[mini2nut]

$73k Pre-price hike buyers have dried up. There is no profit to be made flipping an R1T at the new price point. A seller would be taking a financial loss.

 

[lefkonj]

You have to look at the market and recognize that some people will gladly pay that to say 'Quad Motor'. This is more of the luxury market stuff.

You can save plenty of money and buy a Inline4 Audi Q7 or for a little more the V6 but there is a SQ7 as well, I see plenty of all three on the road.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Please tell that to all the home sellers in my area. Home sales are still robust even though average prices are only down about 10% from the peak when mortgage rates were 2.5%.

That's because everyone is locked in on low rates during the great refi era.

 

[MXA121]

Pricing of R1T quad is reasonable. Expensive, yes, but reasonable. The Dual Motor also exists and still compares favorably to all comers at a discount. A 4.5 second pickup on air ride loaded with features for 75k is a deal.

 

[dleewla]

R1T quad is the flagship so the price is and probably will remain near where it is. it was always meant to be a low volume product. the R1T dual is priced a little better but still high for most so it would be great if they could add another lower trim option to get the price down. maybe bring back the Explore trim now that their production is maturing. even then it will likely remain low volume. the R1S quad and dual have the potential to be higher volume than the R1T simply because the TAM for SUVs is a lot bigger than trucks. but they can't necessarily lower the price because the upcoming R2 SUV so id guess prices are going to remain where they are unless they bring in a lower trim.

the EDVs are a constant stream of revenue and look good for the stock market but Rivians survival is going to depend a lot on the R2. 2026 is a far ways off in this hyper-growing EV space, so hopefully Rivian can weather the storm that the CT and other BEV competitors will bring in the next two years. im pretty certain the CT is going to be competitively priced so it will disrupt the market whether you like the looks or not.

 

[Zorg]

Got my R1T at $81k pre price increase and enjoy it but would not have purchased at $95k. Though, I would have gotten a cheaper dual motor or a used one. At any rate, those prices will keep the R1 series limited in terms of production (Tesla sells less than 100k S and X a year).

Since we're speculating on CT. I guess that price on dual motor will be competitive (mid 60s). Tesla optimized it for cost savings. Interior is spartan, so it could be possible. If they want to sell 350k CT a year, they can't price it at $70k+.

 

[BigSkies]

So we know they have a goal to be producing ~120k-140k R1's per year eventually.

Rivian's business challenge is figuring out how to make that many R1's at the highest Average Sale Price (ASP) possible.

This is all a complete guess, but I'd say there's probably a market for maybe ~20-30k/yr R1's priced above $90k. That would probably double if priced in the $80k-90k range. I think they could easily get to max production if they made it in the $70-$80k range and it qualified for the full tax credit.

My prediction is that they'll change the lineup a bit once they get through most of the order backlog. It will allow people to get into an R1 at lower price points, but reserve some of the premium features for higher price points.

If I put on my corporate budgeting hat (my specialty), I would expect something along the lines of:
1. A premier "off road" version with quad motors, under body shield, etc in the $95k-$110k range.
2. A "luxury" version with dual motors but the same high quality adventure trim already available. Probably in the $80-$90k range.
3. A version of the "Explore" trim that was cancelled. Dual motor only, and a simplified interior. Possibly with other reduced features to keep it in the $70k-$80k range.

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