‘Big Boost Coming,’ Says Investor About Rivian Stock

[ukyank]

And then some of us bought in early and got screwed. You can only keep buying down your basis so much. Oh well, I still believe in the company and its products long term, but it keeps making little sense that every bit of good news the market turns into bad news somehow. Maybe R2 launch will turn things around next year...guess we'll see.

If you’re still holding any high basis shares you should certainly sell them for the tax loss & just buy more at the current price. You’ll still have the same number of shares but will see some tax benefit while waiting for the stock to pop.

Sponsored

 

[ThirteenElectrics]

If demand were up, Rivian would not be offering incentives--but they are. Wait until they stop offering them before trying to goose your stock positions.

 

[McLovin]

If demand were up, Rivian would not be offering incentives--but they are. Wait until they stop offering them before trying to goose your stock positions.

By that logic, you’d never buy Ford/GM/etc. They’re ALWAYS running incentives. President’s Day sales, Christmas sales, 4th of July sales…

 

[AuntRivian]

If demand were up, Rivian would not be offering incentives--but they are. Wait until they stop offering them before trying to goose your stock positions.

their incentives aren't that great, imo

 

[DuoRivian]

TipRanks

“Tesla is facing some brand image challenges,” notes the investor, who adds that this “can end up being a strong tailwind for Rivian’s demand and margin outlook.”

Bluesea explains that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s political affiliations are harming the company brand. This has already translated into decreased year-over-year sales for the month of January, such as in the European markets of France (down by 63%), Germany (down by 59%), and Sweden (down by 44%). The investor further predicts that a similar pressure point will be seen in the U.S. market, noting that Tesla’s car registrations in California dropped by 12% in 2024.

“Even a few percentage point shift in customer preference from Tesla to Rivian could immensely increase the demand potential of Rivian,” posits Bluesea.

When it comes to Rivian, there is a strong growth case to be made, explains the investor, with consensus revenue estimates calling for 43% growth for 2026 and 68% growth in 2027. It is not just revenues that are expanding, points out Bluesea, but margins which are improving as well. For instance, in the Software and Services segment, gross profit increased from $5 million in Q4 2023 to $60 million in Q4 2024.

As for the valuation, Rivian trades at a 2.6x price-to-sales multiple. Tesla, with a price-to-sales multiple over 12x, is much more expensively priced.

“The stock is quite cheap when we look at the forward revenue and margin potential of the company, making it very attractive,” concludes Bluesea, who rates Rivian a Buy.

Wall Street does not fully share this optimism. With 6 Buy, 11 Hold, and 3 Sell ratings, RIVN holds a consensus Hold. (i.e. Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $14.43 has an upside over ~26%.

The Tesla decrease in Europe does nothing for Rivian as European sales are not until 2027 at the earliest.
tesla as a stock is vastly overpriced so using that as a guide for price/earnings is not helpful.

 

[R1TS]

By that logic, you’d never buy Ford/GM/etc. They’re ALWAYS running incentives. President’s Day sales, Christmas sales, 4th of July sales…

And, how has $F fared? Not good.

 

[R1TS]

their incentives aren't that great, imo

???

They’ve tried almost everything under the sun to move these vehicles:

- inventory discounts
- free L2 charger and up to $2,000 in installation credit
- free PPF wrap
- free options
- “All-Electric Upgrade Offer” credit for just even requesting trade-in value
- Friends and Family discount
- Loyalty discount
- subsidized lease rates

Yet, it’s Elon’s BS antics that are doing the legwork compared to what Rivian management is doing.

 

[AuntRivian]

???

They’ve tried almost everything under the sun to move these vehicles:

- inventory discounts
- free L2 charger and up to $2,000 in installation credit
- free PPF wrap
- free options
- “All-Electric Upgrade Offer” credit for just even requesting trade-in value
- Friends and Family discount
- Loyalty discount
- subsidized lease rates

Yet, it’s Elon’s BS antics that are doing the legwork compared to what Rivian management is doing.

I meant their incentives aren't that great *right now*. In the past they've had good ones. Freinds and Family was big, I got a great deal. Prices are downright astronomical now compared to what I paid. I had hoped the new year would bring better discounts, but they've only gone up. And Jan-Feb is a terrible time to sell cars. Look at what other EV's are going for, huge discounts...

 

[BigSkies]

???

They’ve tried almost everything under the sun to move these vehicles:

- inventory discounts
- free L2 charger and up to $2,000 in installation credit
- free PPF wrap
- free options
- “All-Electric Upgrade Offer” credit for just even requesting trade-in value
- Friends and Family discount
- Loyalty discount
- subsidized lease rates

Yet, it’s Elon’s BS antics that are doing the legwork compared to what Rivian management is doing.

They're kinda doing what every other automaker on the planet is doing? I don't see why they get dinged for this.

They've identified ongoing demand of about 40-45k units per year and are moving incentives up and down to try and hit that target. They were able to hit their production and gross margin target with this strategy.

My inner bean-counter is saying that a car company without incentives has an under-priced product.

 

[R1TS]

They're kinda doing what every other automaker on the planet is doing? I don't see why they get dinged for this.

They've identified ongoing demand of about 40-45k units per year and are moving incentives up and down to try and hit that target. They were able to hit their production and gross margin target with this strategy.

My inner bean-counter is saying that a car company without incentives has an under-priced product.

Hitting a target that hasn’t increased.

 

[BigSkies]

Hitting a target that hasn’t increased.

What do you think a reasonable annual sales target is for vehicles in the $70k-$110k range is? I can't think of any car in this price range that has some perpetually increasing growth target.

Rivian found their ongoing demand point with the R1 platform. There's nothing wrong with that. It's how car companies work.

Further growth comes from new models, new EDV customers, and eventually cross-border expansion.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

What do you think a reasonable annual sales target is for vehicles in the $70k-$110k range is? I can't think of any car in this price range that has some perpetually increasing growth target.

Rivian found their ongoing demand point with the R1 platform. There's nothing wrong with that. It's how car companies work.

Further growth comes from new models, new EDV customers, and eventually cross-border expansion.

This is 100% correct. It's also worth emphasizing this was ALWAYS the plan. That's why the R2 and R3 have been announced as having a much larger planned production run. I would argue that Rivian sells a disproportionately large number of vehicles in this price range for an upstart company. Breaking into the 100K dollar mark is a pretty high bar, and IMO, Rivian is the best balance of vehicle for the price on the market.

 

[captainjp]

This is 100% correct. It's also worth emphasizing this was ALWAYS the plan. That's why the R2 and R3 have been announced as having a much larger planned production run. I would argue that Rivian sells a disproportionately large number of vehicles in this price range for an upstart company. Breaking into the 100K dollar mark is a pretty high bar, and IMO, Rivian is the best balance of vehicle for the price on the market.

In addition, remember that the original price point was not what it is now for R1. New vehicle prices were 20% less than the current listings. Rivian realized that the margin was unsustainable and jacked prices, but honored “early reservation holders.” I am personally impressed that Rivian had a steady increase in deliveries even after the price hike.

 

[beaker]

The Tesla decrease in Europe does nothing for Rivian as European sales are not until 2027 at the earliest.
tesla as a stock is vastly overpriced so using that as a guide for price/earnings is not helpful.

It's just a data point in support of the thesis that Elon's active support for fascism is hurting the brand.

 

[WFR1S]

If battery prices come down, as they have been, then it changes the price to produce the units.

This is an interesting video I watched this week that talks about new battery technology.

Sponsored