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1st deliveries in November says my Rivian Guide. Communication from RJ expected today

Snakelipdog

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FYI, Ordered the R1S Adventure which is not scheduled for delivery until January 2022. So I can ASSUME that a MAY or JUNE 2022 delivery is probable!
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AdamsFan1983

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The fanboi’s will say they haven’t “promised” us anything. Because, you know, we never pinky-sweared on it, or they had their fingers crossed, or they put some fine print disclaimer somewhere. ?
^^^^guy hating on company disclosing the minutia of a legal agreement in a “fine print disclaimer” (that he can enter into), while simultaneously hating on company for not disclosing every mundane detail/spec/feature of a product that he cannot yet purchase.
 

Gshenderson

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^^^^guy hating on company disclosing the minutia of a legal agreement in a “fine print disclaimer” (that he can enter into), while simultaneously hating on company for not disclosing every mundane detail/spec/feature of a product that he cannot yet purchase.
^^^^fanboi
 

WheeledLife

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Eh, can't really state it's all BS. In part, Rivian may have had 0 control over the delays that has occurred. The real problem is how they're going around communicating about it. If they're hitting a snag, they shouldn't wait till the absolute last minute to post info about it and push the delay 1 week/month. I'd rather hear them say they'll push it out till November and surprise us early than have them push back at the last minute, then do it again, and again, and again.
C'mon... Doesn't any order holder want to consider that Robert J may have had his eyes laser-focused on the IPO since he began getting guidance from his bank underwriters in April-May? Do you think that the anticipated September IPO value of $70 Billion might have been affected if he had announced a 6-month shipping delay in May? Much safer to keep investors engaged by a string of shorter delays with fingers pointing everywhere else but inside his company.
 

opnwide

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C'mon... Doesn't any order holder want to consider that Robert J may have had his eyes laser-focused on the IPO since he began getting guidance from his bank underwriters in April-May? Do you think that the anticipated September IPO value of $70 Billion might have been affected if he had announced a 6-month shipping delay in May? Much safer to keep investors engaged by a string of shorter delays with fingers pointing everywhere else but inside his company.
I think the lack of string lights on the camp kitchen has already dented the IPO $5 Billion.
 

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AdamsFan1983

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Robot

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For a company with honestly terrible communication and for keeping prospective buyers and early reservations holders in the dark about pretty much everything, this for sure could be true. Makes me think more and more about dropping the LE and just waiting for the Max Pack. ?
Same.
 

paariv

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C'mon... Doesn't any order holder want to consider that Robert J may have had his eyes laser-focused on the IPO since he began getting guidance from his bank underwriters in April-May? Do you think that the anticipated September IPO value of $70 Billion might have been affected if he had announced a 6-month shipping delay in May? Much safer to keep investors engaged by a string of shorter delays with fingers pointing everywhere else but inside his company.
Id be surprised if they IPO before shipping products to market. If they haven’t proven themselves that way, investor appetite will be much lower. People will forgive a delay, but won’t want to invest without a better idea of whether Rivian can actually deliver (and investors will get more factual insight into the company’s financials after deliveries have started; prior to that it’ll be speculation/ projection about what those operations cost).
 

jplblue

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Id be surprised if they IPO before shipping products to market. If they haven’t proven themselves that way, investor appetite will be much lower. People will forgive a delay, but won’t want to invest without a better idea of whether Rivian can actually deliver (and investors will get more factual insight into the company’s financials after deliveries have started; prior to that it’ll be speculation/ projection about what those operations cost).
I don't think it's safe to assume that more information = better valuation for Rivian at this point. It's clear that Rivian will be selling every car it produces for the foreseeable future. That alone is good enough to attract institutional investors. If they start delivery too early and encounter problems, that will be more damaging to the company's valuation than delay in delivery, IMO.

I'd bet that a potential IPO is why communication has been tight. If Rivian is currently doing roadshows for investors, they have to be careful about what new information they release.
 

paariv

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I don't think it's safe to assume that more information = better valuation for Rivian at this point. It's clear that Rivian will be selling every car it produces for the foreseeable future. That alone is good enough to attract institutional investors. If they start delivery too early and encounter problems, that will be more damaging to the company's valuation than delay in delivery, IMO.

I'd bet that a potential IPO is why communication has been tight. If Rivian is currently doing roadshows for investors, they have to be careful about what new information they release.
I’m not assuming more info is automatically better, just saying that investor appetite will be much greater, and the valuation higher, if they have a solid track record of deliveries pre-IPO. You’re of course right that they may end up facing so many challenges that the valuation tanks if they can’t produce at scale any time soon.

But conditions for an IPO aren’t great now, in the face of recent delays and uncertainty about their ability to deliver. If I were an exec, I’d prefer to cash out on a record of actual success, not just hopeful hype.
 

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Gshenderson

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If I were an exec, I’d prefer to cash out on a record of actual success, not just hopeful hype.
If you’re cashing out, you want to do it at maximize price - hype or otherwise. And if you look at most recent IPO’s, the prices are based more on hype and expectations than they are on actual past performance.
 

paariv

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If you’re cashing out, you want to do it at maximize price - hype or otherwise. And if you look at most recent IPO’s, the prices are based more on hype and expectations than they are on actual past performance.
I am currently at a pre-IPO company with a unicorn valuation. I talk about these issues all the time.

You maximize price by building the best record possible because that's the foundation for even more hype. A pre-launch IPO isn't going to deliver what Rivian's investors and board want, especially in the face of some pretty recent public stumbles/challenges and a good likelihood of bringing a successful product to market within the next couple of months.

All I'm saying is I think they want to start deliveries before IPO so they can prove they can deliver at scale, because from what I know they don't need the cash to fund operations. I expect them to stick to that plan.
 

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FYI, all who have been contacted by guides have a different anticipated delivery window. This window doesn't imply a delay in production by itself.

I did speak with my guide yesterday, and he made no mention of any delays and that my window is still mid-August to September.
@godfodder0901 , I'm curious if you've spoken to your guide since the delay announcement...what is your revised delivery window?
 

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@godfodder0901 , I'm curious if you've spoken to your guide since the delay announcement...what is your revised delivery window?
For what it's worth, I checked with my guide after hearing about the delay and was told that my 'November at latest' timeframe was not affected.
 

skyote

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@Shzeph & @Khaneric , I'd be curious whether you have received updated/different timeframes as well!
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