Stock price - do people realize Rivian (RIVN) is NOT Tesla (TSLA)??

[the long way downunder]

GREAT! Tesla just slashed their prices by 20%, pissing off most their existing fan base overnight. Now today, Rivian stockholders will get their ass kicked because of it!

The market has indeed taken $RIVN out the $16 woodshed for a flogging.
The EV market still follows $TSLA; I doubt that's changing any time soon.
It would be great to see competitors drop prices 20%. I doubt Ford will be cutting prices because their production is a long way behind demand for the Lightning.
The US economy is in recession, Tesla has been riding high on demand in '21 and '22.
Looks like '23 is shaping up to be a good year for the EV user and tough year for Tesla and Rivian.
Tesla needs to work on stability of its business and quality of its product.
Rivian needs to work on communication, production and quality.
Both need to stop reading their own marketing and pragmatically improve the ownership experience.

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[Tahoe Man]

Investor confidence in Rivian has really tumbled. It's either this company makes it or it doesn't, the next six months will be telling. If the economy starts to falter I'm not sure how Rivian gets through it.

 

[the long way downunder]

Investor confidence in Rivian has really tumbled. It's either this company makes it or it doesn't, the next six months will be telling. If the economy starts to falter I'm not sure how Rivian gets through it.

Rivian is going to make it. Between Bezos and Amazon and the sheer absence of EDV competitors, Rivian will do fine. The R1. The R2. Not so sure. Look at Tesla struggling to sell the Model Y (inarguably one of the greatest vehicles of all time in terms of sales, owners, popularity, technology, profitability …) If Tesla can't sell a million Model Ys, Rivian has no chance of selling R2s for a profit.
I think some time in 2022, Rivian "quiet quit" the R1 and R2 and became an EDV manufacturer. Maybe they do well and continue the consumer products. Maybe not.
For now, they're niche boutique SUV/truck manf with a handful of customers and a handful of service centers that could be left to wither while the corporation pumps money out of the EDVs to compensate the "major investors" for holding a $175 hand that's now a $17 hand.

 

[DuoRivians]

Rivian is going to make it. Between Bezos and Amazon and the sheer absence of EDV competitors, Rivian will do fine. The R1. The R2. Not so sure. Look at Tesla struggling to sell the Model Y (inarguably one of the greatest vehicles of all time in terms of sales, owners, popularity, technology, profitability …) If Tesla can't sell a million Model Ys, Rivian has no chance of selling R2s for a profit.
I think some time in 2022, Rivian "quiet quit" the R1 and R2 and became an EDV manufacturer. Maybe they do well and continue the consumer products. Maybe not.
For now, they're niche boutique SUV/truck manf with a handful of customers and a handful of service centers that could be left to wither while the corporation pumps money out of the EDVs to compensate the "major investors" for holding a $175 hand that's now a $17 hand.

A big reason why Teslas aren’t selling at premium any more is that their brand value fell significantly. It doesn’t mean that other brands can’t hold their premium values. It’s not all about tech for the average consumer. Association and self image are more important.

Here’s how much Tesla’s brand fell last quarter

 

[the long way downunder]

A big reason why Teslas aren’t selling at premium any more is that their brand value fell significantly. It doesn’t mean that other brands can’t hold their premium values. It’s not all about tech for the average consumer. Association and self image are more important.

Here’s how much Tesla’s brand fell last quarter

Funny.
I wouldn't trust any brand research data as far as I can comfortably spit a dead rat.
Nobody knows how to measure brand value.
If anyone had solved the problem, brands like Nike and Coke wouldn't spend billions every year just hoping their brand holds value for the next quarter.
Nobody knows.
$TSLA could spike 20% before I finish typing this post.
Tesla could report record deliveries and $TSLA could crash.
The "forward looking discount mechanism" that is the stock market, is not influenced by "favorability rankings" or any other mumbo jumbo – they have their own specious mumbo jumbo!
Tesla has been a textbook case for university students to ponder for decades to come.
Anyone asserting they understand the rise and fall of Tesla and $TSLA should seek help. : )

 

[DuoRivians]

Funny.
I wouldn't trust any brand research data as far as I can comfortably spit a dead rat.
Nobody knows how to measure brand value.
If anyone had solved the problem, brands like Nike and Coke wouldn't spend billions every year just hoping their brand holds value for the next quarter.
Nobody knows.
$TSLA could spike 20% before I finish typing this post.
Tesla could report record deliveries and $TSLA could crash.
The "forward looking discount mechanism" that is the stock market, is not influenced by "favorability rankings" or any other mumbo jumbo – they have their own specious mumbo jumbo!
Tesla has been a textbook case for university students to ponder for decades to come.
Anyone asserting they understand the rise and fall of Tesla and $TSLA should seek help. : )

Agree to disagree. While exact $ amount brand amount deterioration may be hard to precisely quantify, it is clear to me that these price discounts are causally related to the brand’s decline.

 

[the long way downunder]

Agree to disagree. While exact $ amount brand amount deterioration may be hard to precisely quantify, it is clear to me that these price discounts are causally related to the brand’s decline.

What are we disagreeing about?
That's the implausible guess of causality: the brand is not linked to supply-demand metrics.
Brand value is not linked to transient metrics. The Tesla brand is as strong as it was just a few weeks ago when buyers were "shut up and take my money" … it's consumer sentiment and the cost of money, and the feedback loop of secondary to primary market that has collapsed short term demand.
The US economy is in recession.
Buyers are no longer sure of their income.
The interest rate and terms on borrowing money for consumer discretionary purchases has doubled and tripled.
The oversupply of new vehicles has undermined the wholesale "auction block" price of used Teslas.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Rivian is going to make it. Between Bezos and Amazon and the sheer absence of EDV competitors, Rivian will do fine. The R1. The R2. Not so sure. Look at Tesla struggling to sell the Model Y (inarguably one of the greatest vehicles of all time in terms of sales, owners, popularity, technology, profitability …) If Tesla can't sell a million Model Ys, Rivian has no chance of selling R2s for a profit.
I think some time in 2022, Rivian "quiet quit" the R1 and R2 and became an EDV manufacturer. Maybe they do well and continue the consumer products. Maybe not.
For now, they're niche boutique SUV/truck manf with a handful of customers and a handful of service centers that could be left to wither while the corporation pumps money out of the EDVs to compensate the "major investors" for holding a $175 hand that's now a $17 hand.

Those are good points. It will be interesting to see how Tesla does. Frankly I wouldn't buy a Tesla because I just don't care for the jelly bean shape. But I do like their charging network.

That was very interesting to see the Rivian stock slide so much.

 

[the long way downunder]

Frankly I wouldn't buy a Tesla because I just don't care for the jelly bean shape.

But I do like their charging network.

That was very interesting to see the Rivian stock slide so much.

Agreed. The appearance of the Teslas has never grown on me. I'm fine with the X and the 3, but they're not what I'd prefer (I like the Rivian except for the headlight rings, I'd prefer the Taycan, but it's overpriced and slower than the S Plaid, though I think the latest Cayenne turbo S might be nearly as quick as the X Plaid, I wouldn't pay for it … I'm "over" paying $5/gal for 15 mpg just to hear the noises.) I like the F-150 Hybrid for appearance, size and performance. I'm looking forward to the F-150 Lightning having the range of the F-150 Hybrid.

The Supercharger network is the winning value of a Tesla. Road trips are still far too slow, but at least it's possible to drive from California to Colorado (it's realistically not possible with DCFC.)

As for $RIVN, I'm a derivatives trader (self-employed for 20 years.) 2022 was clearly the year for all the SPACs and memes to come crashing down, but I still don't "get" why $RIVN and $TSLA have been sold off to such low levels. The HFTs wrote some algos and slaughtered anyone with a retail position in those products. Crypto self-destructed, but it was also murdered by the agent provocateurs like SBF and FTX, which appears to have been targeted by CZ and Binance. Why the the sell-off spread and took down EVs, I dunno. EVs are the "sure thing" of 2020 thru 2030 – why institutions got scared out of those positions, I dunno, but once the selling starts, they have to chase performance (whether the price goes up or down.)

I expected Rivian "should" have held somewhere near its first IPO strike price (maybe $55, not $75) and Tesla should have held somewhere near where it was prior to the twitter debacle. It's just nonsense that people think Musk carries Tesla singlehandedly … he's been saying for years that he spends little time on Tesla and most of his time on R&D, not on business or operations. With the whole S&P in a downdraft (-20%) taking down the whole market, there was no reason to expect the EV segment to hold up. In a broad sell-off, only the government sanctioned rackets increase in value (military, energy (up 60%), banking, insurance, pharma) … you'll can't go broke betting on government and corporate corruption. : )

I don't see $RIVN recovering to its old highs; that's years away. But I do see the potential in Rivian, not in the China-based or Euro-based competitors. We know that Ford, GM and RAM simply "never" gain – they just don't seem to have any clue on how to create investor wealth. That comes from being retirement funds that happen to have a way of keeping their contributors and beneficiaries occupied assembling automobiles and paying union dues.

Once Rivian can ramp up building EDVs, build the Georgia factory and start selling <something> in high volume, the sky's the limit. Even the R2 looks like it will be relegated to a niche, not a direct Model Y competitor – there's just so many vehicles and manufacturers entering the EV segments, Rivian just can't scale up to compete with Ford, GM, RAM, VW and all the China-based EV manufacturers. Hence my conjecture Rivian is an EDV manufacturer – they're already a leader, they already have the best possible customer and contract, they just need to execute on that line of business and start announcing contracts with giant fleet operators. Then $RIVN will reflect their real business and real potential. I just hope they don't start announcing froufrou nonsense like motorcycles, watercraft, solar, etc. One thing they have to do is offer V2X (especially using the R1 as a home backup battery generator.

I expect that some time in '23 we'll see both $TSLA and $RIVN find institutional buyers picking up a lot size in EV positions. So I expect the unexpected: a 50% increase in $TSLA, and $RIVN up around $50 (300%) happening "all of a sudden" (to exclude the slow-moving retail investor who will hesitate then fomo after they see the first 30-50% gain, getting in too late on $TSLA and then having "weak hands" and getting shaken out of $RIVN (again.)

Then again, did I mention I don't purport to understand why 2022 was so brutal on EVs? : )

 

[DuoRivians]

Agreed. The appearance of the Teslas has never grown on me. I'm fine with the X and the 3, but they're not what I'd prefer (I like the Rivian except for the headlight rings, I'd prefer the Taycan, but it's overpriced and slower than the S Plaid, though I think the latest Cayenne turbo S might be nearly as quick as the X Plaid, I wouldn't pay for it … I'm "over" paying $5/gal for 15 mpg just to hear the noises.) I like the F-150 Hybrid for appearance, size and performance. I'm looking forward to the F-150 Lightning having the range of the F-150 Hybrid.

The Supercharger network is the winning value of a Tesla. Road trips are still far too slow, but at least it's possible to drive from California to Colorado (it's realistically not possible with DCFC.)

As for $RIVN, I'm a derivatives trader (self-employed for 20 years.) 2022 was clearly the year for all the SPACs and memes to come crashing down, but I still don't "get" why $RIVN and $TSLA have been sold off to such low levels. The HFTs wrote some algos and slaughtered anyone with a retail position in those products. Crypto self-destructed, but it was also murdered by the agent provocateurs like SBF and FTX, which appears to have been targeted by CZ and Binance. Why the the sell-off spread and took down EVs, I dunno. EVs are the "sure thing" of 2020 thru 2030 – why institutions got scared out of those positions, I dunno, but once the selling starts, they have to chase performance (whether the price goes up or down.)

I expected Rivian "should" have held somewhere near its first IPO strike price (maybe $55, not $75) and Tesla should have held somewhere near where it was prior to the twitter debacle. It's just nonsense that people think Musk carries Tesla singlehandedly … he's been saying for years that he spends little time on Tesla and most of his time on R&D, not on business or operations. With the whole S&P in a downdraft (-20%) taking down the whole market, there was no reason to expect the EV segment to hold up. In a broad sell-off, only the government sanctioned rackets increase in value (military, energy (up 60%), banking, insurance, pharma) … you'll can't go broke betting on government and corporate corruption. : )

I don't see $RIVN recovering to its old highs; that's years away. But I do see the potential in Rivian, not in the China-based or Euro-based competitors. We know that Ford, GM and RAM simply "never" gain – they just don't seem to have any clue on how to create investor wealth. That comes from being retirement funds that happen to have a way of keeping their contributors and beneficiaries occupied assembling automobiles and paying union dues.

Once Rivian can ramp up building EDVs, build the Georgia factory and start selling <something> in high volume, the sky's the limit. Even the R2 looks like it will be relegated to a niche, not a direct Model Y competitor – there's just so many vehicles and manufacturers entering the EV segments, Rivian just can't scale up to compete with Ford, GM, RAM, VW and all the China-based EV manufacturers. Hence my conjecture Rivian is an EDV manufacturer – they're already a leader, they already have the best possible customer and contract, they just need to execute on that line of business and start announcing contracts with giant fleet operators. Then $RIVN will reflect their real business and real potential. I just hope they don't start announcing froufrou nonsense like motorcycles, watercraft, solar, etc. One thing they have to do is offer V2X (especially using the R1 as a home backup battery generator.

I expect that some time in '23 we'll see both $TSLA and $RIVN find institutional buyers picking up a lot size in EV positions. So I expect the unexpected: a 50% increase in $TSLA, and $RIVN up around $50 (300%) happening "all of a sudden" (to exclude the slow-moving retail investor who will hesitate then fomo after they see the first 30-50% gain, getting in too late on $TSLA and then having "weak hands" and getting shaken out of $RIVN (again.)

Then again, did I mention I don't purport to understand why 2022 was so brutal on EVs? : )

I hope you’re right about the $rivn range this year. IMO, it’ll all depend on whether Rivian projects producing at least 60k cars this year and successful roll out of enduro engines and LFP packs.

 

[the long way downunder]

I hope you’re right about the $rivn range this year. IMO, it’ll all depend on whether Rivian projects producing at least 60k cars this year and successful roll out of enduro engines and LFP packs.

I think '23 is a year of "any news is bad news" and even a 2% shortfall is bad news (it shouldn't be) for Rivian till they prove they can execute and communicate. They really need a decent communications person to get the street in the loop -- no more surprises. I doubt Rivian can build enough R1's to impress anyone. They really need to build a sheet-tonne of EDVs and have contracts with fleets for 100s of thousands of EDVs over the next 12-24 months.
They also need to focus on quality and service. If they double the number of R1's on the road and don't do something about the service center performance, it's going to be a lot of bad news. If they don't fix initial quality, they're burning cash on paying for scratch-n-dent work and delaying revenue on deliveries. Ideally, they pick a number, exceed it by 5% and avoid all pitfalls like recalls, fires and software problems (especially Driver+, which right now is an accident waiting to happen.)

 

[1T2022]

I bet my entire retirement fund on Rivian. Buy more and let's go! When people are scared, best time to buy.

 

[Biturbowned]

I bet my entire retirement fund on Rivian. Buy more and let's go! When people are scared, best time to buy.

God speed.

 

[the long way downunder]

I bet my entire retirement fund on Rivian. Buy more and let's go! When people are scared, best time to buy.

That's fine if you're under 30, otherwise, you might find yourself wearing a vest with "How may I help you?" printed on the back … : )

 

[Tahoe Man]

Wow, a new low isn't good. This would make me suspicious at best on making a $70k+ purchase given the risk if Rivian will be around in a few years.

Four huge challenges for Rivian: 1-Slow to possible economic recession. 2-High cost of money. 3-Tesla starting a price war. 4-Oncoming competition, crowded EV space.

Not sure if they can survive at this point.

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