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electruck

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RJ saying they are Still on target for 25k in 2022 indicates NO upside. More production just depletes parts sooner and idles workers for longer periods of time.

Corporate speak, proclaim anything remotely positive and whisper/spin the negative.

For the 15k folks at the head of the line it’s a very different story than for folks behind you.

Slice and dice and regurgitate the earnings calls but the clear message is a tiny percentage of R1s will be produced in 2022 due to parts shortages.
You speak as if parts were static inventory which is far from the case. The challenge right now is evolving the supply chain from a trickle of parts here and there to a steady stream and then continuing to ramp that volume over time to match production (which is a function of both capacity and demand as well as supply chain and many other factors). One of the battles Rivian is fighting with suppliers right now is reassuring them that they are viable and that if a supplier commits to ramping up that Rivian will continue to be able to consume what they provide. If a supplier has a limited capacity and have to choose between a Ford/GM/Stellantis with a proven track record of successful products and Rivian with no track record, where do you think the supplier is going to invest? It's an uphill battle but Rivian just has to keep chipping away at the suppliers and demonstrate that they have the demand and the ability to produce.
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DuckTruck

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Yes. Went through delivery on Tuesday. They are clearly still figuring things out re: delivery logistics. It went fine but it definitely was not seamless especially the scheduling part. Still, not complaining; it wasnt that big a deal to me and I have my truck. I’m thrilled and wearing @DuckTruck s permagrin.
AdamsFan,

WE NEED PICTURES!!!
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Guy

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Interesting paragraph on a soon to be updated reservation process. This is a smart move in light of supply chain constraints and inflation. Shareholder friendly too.

“As demand for our products continues to grow, we remain focused on evolving our preorder processes to better manage our large backlog. Soon we will be launching an updated reservation system for new customers that separates the reservation and configuration steps. New customers will still be able to browse through options; however, the ability to save a specific configuration will not happen until closer to a customer’s build slot. This change ensures that when a build is configured, the customer is choosing from the latest features, packages, and pricing.”
It is shareholder friendly but I don’t know another manufacturer that lets you browse but not know price and then a year later you get to actually fully configure the vehicle. I hope when the back log is more manageable at say no more than a year out they follow the current process of ordering for a price and then buy.
 

zipzag

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It is shareholder friendly but I don’t know another manufacturer that lets you browse but not know price and then a year later you get to actually fully configure the vehicle. I hope when the back log is more manageable at say no more than a year out they follow the current process of ordering for a price and then buy.
This is the future of high demand vehicles in an inflationary environment. Otherwise either the customer pays under market or the dealer captures the value of underpricing.

If a vehicle is in low enough demand that its being manufactured for inventory then giving firm pricing is risk free. But there is no upside for the manufacturer to give pricing on a vehicle in high enough demand that it won't be delivered for a year or two.

Ford underpriced the Lightning because they did not correctly forecast demand.
 

AdamsFan1983

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SANZC02

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It is shareholder friendly but I don’t know another manufacturer that lets you browse but not know price and then a year later you get to actually fully configure the vehicle. I hope when the back log is more manageable at say no more than a year out they follow the current process of ordering for a price and then buy.
I read that different, I read you can go through and see current available option and prices but cannot save anything until closer to build time. This prevents another pricing fiasco and allows more flexibility for them to change what options are available.

Seems like a positive change, only issue I see is not allowing them to save a configuration does not help Rivian know what the reservations are for. I will need to see if they are at least capturing model, drive line, and battery configurations to help plan properly for demand. I guess that could be mitigated if they started reaching out 2 or 3 months in advance to confirm configurations.
 

Jac

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RJ saying they are Still on target for 25k in 2022 indicates NO upside. More production just depletes parts sooner and idles workers for longer periods of time.

Corporate speak, proclaim anything remotely positive and whisper/spin the negative.

For the 15k folks at the head of the line it’s a very different story than for folks behind you.

Slice and dice and regurgitate the earnings calls but the clear message is a tiny percentage of R1s will be produced in 2022 due to parts shortages.
I noted, when pressed on the earnings call yesterday, RJ indicated 1/3 of the 25,000 projected 2022 vehicles will be the delivery vans — clearly suggesting at this point he expects Rivian will produce more than 16,000 R1’s in 2022.
 

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I would have been happy with pictures, but that was awesome! I'm becoming a bigger fan of Glacier White. It's a great look, and it shows off the contours so very well. Enjoy the Hell out of that thing. And, critically, remember to always carry floss or toothpicks. With your PermaGrin, people will see even your molars from forty feet away. 😁
 

EarlyAdptr

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As pointed out by others delivery seems to also be a bottle neck. They have done factory pick up before at the end of March event. If they moved to do this monthly they could easily deliver 300 plus vehicles per quarter (are high is around 7 or 8% of expected quarterly volume). They would do this by having 25 staff and four pick up sessions at each event (9am, 11am, 1pm and 3pm for example). One hour for running through the vehicle with the customer, then the vehicle get moved while the owner goes on a factory tour and the next set of vehicles get put in position for the next wave of people.

This would speed up delivery, create additional space in the shipment system (car carrier or train), save money and potentially reduce transportation damage. All are positives for Rivian. This is also scalable as they could easily move to weekly or daily pick ups.
I'm not sure we know enough to determine delivery at SC's is a bottleneck or not. Let's say Normal is pumping out 100 R1's a day (someone I'm sure can tell me the approx current rate)... if there are 25 SC's then they would each receive 4 a day in a perfectly smooth world. Now the world (as we know from waiting 3+ years) doesn't operate smoothly, so to buffer the ebs and flows, each SC carries some inventory (say ~5+ days worth or 20+ vehicles). If a carrier doesn't show up one day, it's OK, we have some buffer. That's part of the reason (IMHO) the production #'s > delivery #'s. To create this strategic buffer of supplier - between Normal and the SC's (some at Normal, and some at SC's). So, can an SC do 4 R1's a Day? Just because they have inventory in their lot, doesn't mean they're the bottleneck.
 

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You speak as if parts were static inventory which is far from the case. The challenge right now is evolving the supply chain from a trickle of parts here and there to a steady stream and then continuing to ramp that volume over time to match production (which is a function of both capacity and demand as well as supply chain and many other factors). One of the battles Rivian is fighting with suppliers right now is reassuring them that they are viable and that if a supplier commits to ramping up that Rivian will continue to be able to consume what they provide. If a supplier has a limited capacity and have to choose between a Ford/GM/Stellantis with a proven track record of successful products and Rivian with no track record, where do you think the supplier is going to invest? It's an uphill battle but Rivian just has to keep chipping away at the suppliers and demonstrate that they have the demand and the ability to produce.
I do not think parts are a static supply. On the contrary, the supply is dynamic which is exactly why the line goes idle! They build when they have parts and idle when waiting for parts. They pace the production to actual and anticipated parts.

Chip supplies meeting demand is a long ways off. Chip factories in the best of times take 2 yrs to come on line. RJ’s comments on working with suppliers and suppliers leaning is corporate speak and is meaningless. When RJ says that parts are flooding their receiving then that has meaning.

Do you think the parts supply issue is made up? What about battery demand, which RJ warned was going to be an issue, far outstripping supply.

No Parts = No R1s This is reality!
 
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SANZC02

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I do not think parts are a static supply. On the contrary, the supply is dynamic which is exactly why the line goes idle! They build when they have parts and idle when waiting for parts. They pace the production to actual and anticipated parts.

Chip supplies meeting demand is a long ways off. Chip factories in the best of times take 2 yrs to come on line. RJ’s comments on working with suppliers and suppliers leaning is corporate speak and is meaningless. When RJ says that parts are flooding their receiving then that has meaning.

Do you think the parts supply issue is made up? What about battery demand, which RJ warned was going to be an issue, far outstripping supply.

No Parts = No R1s This reality!
As for the battery shortage issue, he addressed that yesterday. The article mislead what he was saying. His actual comment was not near term like next 5 years but longer term when most vehicles being built are electric.
 

Guy

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I'm not sure we know enough to determine delivery at SC's is a bottleneck or not. Let's say Normal is pumping out 100 R1's a day (someone I'm sure can tell me the approx current rate)... if there are 25 SC's then they would each receive 4 a day in a perfectly smooth world. Now the world (as we know from waiting 3+ years) doesn't operate smoothly, so to buffer the ebs and flows, each SC carries some inventory (say ~5+ days worth or 20+ vehicles). If a carrier doesn't show up one day, it's OK, we have some buffer. That's part of the reason (IMHO) the production #'s > delivery #'s. To create this strategic buffer of supplier - between Normal and the SC's (some at Normal, and some at SC's). So, can an SC do 4 R1's a Day? Just because they have inventory in their lot, doesn't mean they're the bottleneck.
I agree each SC should cope with 4 a day. There are around 20 SCs currently and as more come online and the need to drive three hours each way goes down that will help.
When production increases having this safety valve of factory pick up helps them. In addition it saves money and many people would like that option. The very definition of a win-win.
 

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A further thought: If there are R1S deliveries taking place as RJ claimed yesterday, why hasn't Rivian shared any sort of detailed walkthrough of the R1S interior beyond two Instagram stories.

They did a bigger rollout for R1T. By comparison, Land Rover announced the updated RRS on Tuesday and within 10 minutes of the reveal show being over they had an updated website with more quality interior pictures of the RRS than we have ever seen of the R1S.

To me, the only explanations all reflect poorly on Rivian
1. Rivian communications remain so poor athey are unable to put together a proper reveal.
2. Rivian still lacks competent and sufficient comms teams to do an update.
3. The vehicles being delivered are really glorified betas
 

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A further thought: If there are R1S deliveries taking place as RJ claimed yesterday, why hasn't Rivian shared any sort of detailed walkthrough of the R1S interior beyond two Instagram stories.

They did a bigger rollout for R1T. By comparison, Land Rover announced the updated RRS on Tuesday and within 10 minutes of the reveal show being over they had an updated website with more quality interior pictures of the RRS than we have ever seen of the R1S.

To me, the only explanations all reflect poorly on Rivian
1. Rivian communications remain so poor athey are unable to put together a proper reveal.
2. Rivian still lacks competent and sufficient comms teams to do an update.
3. The vehicles being delivered are really glorified betas
4. Rivian is nowhere near as mature as JLR, so it is what it is. They are trying to keep their head above water and pump out vehicles, and most of the customer base has no need or desire for more information to get that started, so why delay. The rollout for the R1T was for the IPO, not customers.
 

electruck

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I do not think parts are a static supply. On the contrary, the supply is dynamic which is exactly why the line goes idle! They build when they have parts and idle when waiting for parts. They pace the production to actual and anticipated parts.

Chip supplies meeting demand is a long ways off. Chip factories in the best of times take 2 yrs to come on line. RJ’s comments on working with suppliers and suppliers leaning is corporate speak and is meaningless. When RJ says that parts are flooding their receiving then that has meaning.

Do you think the parts supply issue is made up? What about battery demand, which RJ warned was going to be an issue, far outstripping supply.

No Parts = No R1s This is reality!
Spinning up a new fab is not the only way for a chip manufacturer to obtain capacity for automotive applications. They can also rebalance their production as demand for certain products drops off in favor of products in higher demand. Yes, in general, I believe we are still several years away from chip supplies aligning with demand once again but that doesn't mean Rivian can't meet their reduced production targets in the interim.

And yes, battery demand is also going to be an issue for Rivian in the long term, which may not be as far out as some suspect. Personally, I believe batteries will become an issue when they outgrow their supply commitment from SDI but I don't really expect that to happen until they start production of the R2 in a few years. Time will tell.
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